Seeking Alpha

Adam Gefvert

View as an RSS Feed
View Adam Gefvert's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Are LeapFrog Tablets Going The Way Of The Dodo? [View article]
    A typical example of someone who's missing the forest for the trees.
    Apr 9 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Response To Mallinckrodt And Questcor Investor Questions [View article]
    I'm certainly open to differing opinions, kpcapital. If everything is fine and dandy with Achthar, then I guess it isn't a bad long. But there is potential competition and the FDA investigation coming up, both situations where caution should be had. I don't know enough about the situation to do anything more than a day trade.
    Apr 9 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Response To Mallinckrodt And Questcor Investor Questions [View article]
    I think MNK is very dangerous to own right now. It has accumulated a ton of debt from buying QCOR, and who knows what will happen with Acthar? I wouldn't touch MNK with a ten foot pole.
    Apr 9 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Splunk: Expensive By Most Metrics [View article]
    Wow everything you said in the article and the comments section is spot on. Good work, Ted.
    Apr 7 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are LeapFrog Tablets Going The Way Of The Dodo? [View article]
    Thanks guys for your feedback. I want to address a few things:

    clanza827 - I did make a mistake with that valuation. I was more focused on the bigger picture in this article, and I just used the valuation using future PE, as that is how it was valued by Piper Jaffray. I wanted to be conservative. However, upon reflection, I don't think the company will make a profit in 2015. What I should've done, is described a scenario explaining how LeapFrog will burn cash and erode its book value in the coming years. That was sloppy of me and I"ll definitely do better with my next article.

    I was using the Capital IQ estimates that has an optimistic outlook for the company's earnings. For Q413, which is supposed to be the most profitable quarter, the normalized earnings was just break-even for LeapFrog. I predict this year and the next will be similar, with the company even losing money. We will see how the next quarter and guidance will be to see if I'm right, as the numbers should tell a big part of the story.

    Kindly Dr. Dave:

    You make some interesting points, I disagree with most of them.

    A. With the appropriate protectors, other tablets are very sturdy. I read a review on Amazon that said one little girl dropped her Kindle down the stairs but with the cover it didn't even get a scratch. Also, hand me downs are common, for example a used iPad is actually faster than a LeapPad, and can be given to a child when the parent upgrades.

    B. Yes, the LeapPad purchase price is cheaper than the iPad. But the all-in cost is much more. As I explain in the article, iPad apps are free or a couple bucks, whereas LeapPad apps are expensive, many cost around $20.

    E. If you look on the Amazon reviews, the Innotab 3 has an average of "4 stars" while the LeapPad Ultra only has "3.5 stars". This shows that the Innotab is at least comparable to the LeapPad, and likely better.
    Apr 3 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are LeapFrog Tablets Going The Way Of The Dodo? [View article]
    That's 2% of the entire tablet market, right? Not 2% of the 3-5 year old demographic. They have a much higher percentage there that they can lose.
    Apr 3 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are LeapFrog Tablets Going The Way Of The Dodo? [View article]
    You make a good point, but declining companies will often sell for less than book value. I believe eventually the company will be selling office furniture. Once the market realizes this it will be selling below book value.

    LeapFrog will also burn a lot of cash through marketing and R&D expense leading up to 2015.
    Apr 3 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine's Stock Is More Bloated Than Plug Power's Ever Was [View article]
    Just for the record, hoax was the wrong word. But Walmart is buying the turbines in an effort to look green. It doesn't have much material effect on the company fundamentals IMO.

    I wouldn't get too emotional over this article. If microturbines are the "next big thing" like you believe, then the stock price will reflect that despite my negative article. Consider this article more like a "warning".
    Mar 27 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine's Stock Is More Bloated Than Plug Power's Ever Was [View article]
    Yes, CHP is combined heat and power. But natural gas generators have it too http://bit.ly/1gpytBr
    Mar 26 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine's Stock Is More Bloated Than Plug Power's Ever Was [View article]
    I don't mean literally it's a "hoax", but it's just that the truck is a prototype. It may or may not ever come to fruition, and it would be many years away if it does.
    Mar 25 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine's Stock Is More Bloated Than Plug Power's Ever Was [View article]
    There is no evidence that microturbines have better or worse fuel efficiency as natural gas and diesel generators. So for this argument, lets just assume they are the same.

    Walmart has not shown any interest in Capstone, and Capstone hasn't said otherwise. That Walmart futuristic truck video I think is a hoax.
    Mar 25 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine's Stock Is More Bloated Than Plug Power's Ever Was [View article]
    So Cowen is basing its PT on the possibility that Capstone will sell in North Dakota? Even though it doesn't sell any to ND right now. I don't think a hospital, with limited resources, should be spending their money on a microturbine for a backup, when a diesel generator is a 4th of the price.
    Mar 25 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine's Stock Is More Bloated Than Plug Power's Ever Was [View article]
    Microturbines aren't used to power trucks.
    Mar 25 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine's Stock Is More Bloated Than Plug Power's Ever Was [View article]
    I don't think I used any abusive language. I just think the stock is overvalued, I said some businesses do have a use for microturbines.

    The deal with GE is not in effect anymore. And it was Capstone selling GE's product, not the other way around. Here it is from the latest 10-K:

    On April 28, 2011, we purchased from CPS for $2.3 million the remaining TA100 microturbine inventory that was not consumed as part of the TA100 manufacturing process and acquired the manufacturing equipment. On February 1, 2010, the Company and CPS entered into an agreement pursuant to which we agreed to purchase 125 kW waste heat recovery generator systems from CPS, which agreement was subsequently assigned to General Electric Company ("GE") in October of 2010. In exchange for certain minimum purchase requirements through December 2015, we have exclusive rights to sell the zero-emission waste heat recovery generator for all microturbine applications and for applications 500 kW or lower where the source of heat is the exhaust of a reciprocating engine used in a landfill application. As of March 31, 2013, we were not in compliance with the minimum purchase requirements in the agreement. Loss of exclusivity is dependent upon receiving proper notification from GE as set forth in the agreement.
    Mar 25 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone Turbine's Stock Is More Bloated Than Plug Power's Ever Was [View article]
    Green Energy, I'm glad you liked the article even though we disagree. That Walmart truck video is something out of a futuristic movie, and not in the here and now. Why is Walmart making trucks and why would they use Capstone? Capstone management hasn't mentioned doing anything with Walmart.
    Mar 25 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,328 Comments
610 Likes