Thanks Ian. What are you gonna do? Everyone started downplaying the suicide like it didn't have to do with the company. Eventually people forget about it until it bites them in the ass.
Ampio Pharmaceuticals: Anti-Inflammatory Medicine Awaits FDA Guidance On Pivotal Juncture [View article]
I smell BS with the testimonial and that someone from Australia would name themselves "Kangaroohopper". Kangaroohopper, please provide more details about the trial and your experience.
China Medical Technologies: Does Missed Coupon Mean Company Will Go Dark? [View article]
RAMO, do you have a link for that? That says something if the accounts payable and operating expenses are getting paid. However, it might also mean the company is continuing with the business but still won't pay the bonds so will end up bankrupt anyways.
China Medical Technologies: Does Missed Coupon Mean Company Will Go Dark? [View article]
From yahoo message board:
I was asked in another comment why I'm unsure and why I have doubts.
#1 reason is the complete difference in attitude. In the last years, CMED projected an image of professional business like behavior. When a letter was sent, they reacted promptly with an investigation, when auditor changed they made everything in their power to calm things convicing KPMG to write a support letter that was added as annex to their annual report, when recent Glaucus report was released, CMED replied in 6-7 hours with PR of several pages. They promptly released information about receiving some ADS back from creditors. Equally fast was a reaction that the 2011 notes were redeemed in full without dilution.
Suddenly, Fitch tries a week to contact CMED, fails and stop monitoring the company for rating. CMED missed a payment for more than 1.5 months (more than 6 weeks). Chinese New Year is not a plausible cause. Any CFO on the planet has a mobile phone. At least, CMED could have said that they will reply on Feb xth. But this is not a sudden event. CMED has 6 weeks of being late.
So, suddenly, CMED is the most unprofessional and not-business-like company. A complete turn from the image they projected up to late Nov. That is surprising to me: how come all the sudden this behavioral change.
China Medical Technologies: Does Missed Coupon Mean Company Will Go Dark? [View article]
There aren't any angles I can consider. Why piss off the bondholders? If the company has the cash, the bondholders can take it all. If they don't have the cash, everyone loses.
The only thing that the shareholders have is to hope that the management are just idiots who neglected to pay the interest payments. That's the best case senario if you own shares.
China Medical Technologies: Does Missed Coupon Mean Company Will Go Dark? [View article]
Very well written and researched article, thanks. One thing I'm wondering, how do these Chinese frauds trick the auditors into thinking they have that much cash? Don't the auditors check the bank statements?
For example, A-Power energy (APWR.PK) showed it has $168M in cash and only $65M in debt, with a book value of $6.83 per share.
Glaucus Is 6 Months Late And $10 Short On Its China Medical Technologies Call [View article]
Good point forloveofmoney. What's going on with the company now that they've defaulted on those bonds? Has management said anything to the bondholders yet?
Achillion's Hepatitis C Pipeline Is A Longshot [View article]
Hey, I hope they did too. I'm on the sidelines now. I'm hearing from a lot of PHD chemists that Hep C is such a big market, that every big pharma wants a piece of it and will buy ACHN. But still others say there's a Hep C bubble and it isn't as big as people assume. I think it's very tough to tell unless you're an expert in the filed, which I'm not, so I'll leave it to the experts to say whether ACHN is a buy or short.
Achillion's Hepatitis C Pipeline Is A Longshot [View article]
truep, thanks for your input as an expert on the subject. I'm not a PHD chemist, but from the numbers, I still don't think they look good from a logical standpoint. Just about every Hepatitis C developer, including Achillion, says that soon interferon won't be a part of Hepititis C therapy. In this study, only 36% got an SVR from the treatment without interferon, yet 100% did with interferon. So you're saying that interferon will still be necessary for non-responders? What about the nucleoside treatment?
As far as the insider selling, it was at a much higher volume with Achillion compared to Inhibitex.
In fact, after reading that I'm even more convicted of my short. Firstly, ACHN hasn't even started their protease plus NS5A tests yet, so they are way behind. Secondly, this trial is from BMS. Which had bought Inhibitex's nuke, so they obviously aren't too optimistic of the protease plus NS5A strategy.
From the results of the study, only 4 out of 9 HCV genotype 1A patients had a SVR, compared with 100% with those adding interferon to the regimen. A bad result, and shows they have a long way to go with that therapy.
Achillion's Hepatitis C Pipeline Is A Longshot [View article]
As far as the INHX short, I recommended shorting at at around $14 (actually I was shorting it above $15, but didn't get the article out until later), then the stock dropped to $8 in which I recommended it as a buy, you can check the comments. I've spoken to PHD Medicinal Chemists and the fact that it was bought out for $26 a share was a shock to the medical world, no one expected it to be bought out for that much. I also didn't know as much about this space then as I do now, and admittedly I am still learning. I still want to know more about the different combinations of protease inhibitors, as well as if Idenix's nuke can compete with those of Pharmasset and Inhibitex.
Diamond Foods Director's Suicide Evokes Necessary Questions [View article]
Ampio Pharmaceuticals: Anti-Inflammatory Medicine Awaits FDA Guidance On Pivotal Juncture [View article]
China Medical Technologies: Does Missed Coupon Mean Company Will Go Dark? [View article]
China Medical Technologies: Does Missed Coupon Mean Company Will Go Dark? [View article]
I was asked in another comment why I'm unsure and why I have doubts.
#1 reason is the complete difference in attitude. In the last years, CMED projected an image of professional business like behavior. When a letter was sent, they reacted promptly with an investigation, when auditor changed they made everything in their power to calm things convicing KPMG to write a support letter that was added as annex to their annual report, when recent Glaucus report was released, CMED replied in 6-7 hours with PR of several pages.
They promptly released information about receiving some ADS back from creditors. Equally fast was a reaction that the 2011 notes were redeemed in full without dilution.
Suddenly, Fitch tries a week to contact CMED, fails and stop monitoring the company for rating. CMED missed a payment for more than 1.5 months (more than 6 weeks). Chinese New Year is not a plausible cause. Any CFO on the planet has a mobile phone. At least, CMED could have said that they will reply on Feb xth. But this is not a sudden event. CMED has 6 weeks of being late.
So, suddenly, CMED is the most unprofessional and not-business-like company. A complete turn from the image they projected up to late Nov. That is surprising to me: how come all the sudden this behavioral change.
China Medical Technologies: Does Missed Coupon Mean Company Will Go Dark? [View article]
The only thing that the shareholders have is to hope that the management are just idiots who neglected to pay the interest payments. That's the best case senario if you own shares.
China Medical Technologies: Does Missed Coupon Mean Company Will Go Dark? [View article]
For example, A-Power energy (APWR.PK) showed it has $168M in cash and only $65M in debt, with a book value of $6.83 per share.
Glaucus Is 6 Months Late And $10 Short On Its China Medical Technologies Call [View article]
Achillion's Hepatitis C Pipeline Is A Longshot [View article]
4 Reasons Inhibitex Is No Longer A Good Buy [View article]
Achillion's Hepatitis C Pipeline Is A Longshot [View article]
As far as the insider selling, it was at a much higher volume with Achillion compared to Inhibitex.
Achillion's Hepatitis C Pipeline Is A Longshot [View article]
Achillion's Hepatitis C Pipeline Is A Longshot [View article]
Congrats on INHX.
Achillion's Hepatitis C Pipeline Is A Longshot [View article]
In fact, after reading that I'm even more convicted of my short. Firstly, ACHN hasn't even started their protease plus NS5A tests yet, so they are way behind. Secondly, this trial is from BMS. Which had bought Inhibitex's nuke, so they obviously aren't too optimistic of the protease plus NS5A strategy.
From the results of the study, only 4 out of 9 HCV genotype 1A patients had a SVR, compared with 100% with those adding interferon to the regimen. A bad result, and shows they have a long way to go with that therapy.
Achillion's Hepatitis C Pipeline Is A Longshot [View article]
Achillion's Hepatitis C Pipeline Is A Longshot [View article]