Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
Probably true. I don't expect the bears to go away, but the bulls will regain confidence if EPS breaks $15. If EPS is in the $13-$14 range, the stock could continue to bounce but is unlikely to retest highs. If AAPL actually misses $13 we'll probably see a big selloff.
Why $100 Brent Will Not Last Through 2013 [View article]
Well, Alberta oil is trading around $55. That's obviously going to depress production, but it's sort of a moot point because that oil couldn't get to market (hence the discount). There are a few pipeline projects in the works that should alleviate the bottlenecks if they go through. One of those is Keystone XL, which has obviously been held up due to regulatory/environmental issues.
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
The best explanation I've heard from the drop (aside from something vague like "fear") is the idea that the shareholder base is transitioning from growth investors to value investors, and that transition tends to temporarily depress the share price.
There's one thing on which I'll agree with most of Wall St. Next week's earnings report will be the most important one in years.
Analysts Likely To Be Shocked As Amazon's Growth Disappoints [View article]
As you've said, the increase in traffic is largely due to the introduction of Kindle. So I would think the average spend will be much lower than you think (the same might be true of the conversion rate). I am very skeptical of the idea that AMZN added $900 million of sales in Japan during the quarter. It's not like tablets and e-readers just showed up in Japan with AMZN.
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
I don't think there will be much of a "slope". The stock will probably be volatile for the rest of the week because of options expiration, and will then move sharply one way or the other following earnings next week.
That's not any different than a leased airplane, for instance. If American wants to get rid of the plane, it can reject the lease, and the lessor could repossess the plane and file a claim for any resulting losses. Alternatively, American could keep the plane.
In this situation, I think the responsibility for the airport debt is tied to American's leases at DFW. As long as American keeps the leases, DFW won't have a claim (because it won't have a loss). I imagine the contract was written so that DFW would be protected in the event that American used bankruptcy to reject its leases at DFW and downsize there. That's not going to happen, though
HP Could Be A Hidden Beneficiary Of Yen Devaluation [View article]
It's possible, but doesn't seem very likely to me. Obviously, it depends on what BOJ does, and I'll admit that I don't have a great read on that situation.
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
It's an interesting theory, but not one that is supported by a whole lot of evidence yet. If Google suddenly stopped providing apps for the iPhone, then it might be able to pull some users away to Android. On the other hand, it would lose so much money up front from bowing out of iOS, that it would be hard to justify. After all, Google gives away Android for free. If people are using Google services heavily, it doesn't really matter to Google whether they are using iOS instead of Android.
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
Agree that we won't see a return to growth rates of the past. However, I think iPhone sales could be higher this FY than you expect because there's a good chance of a "double refresh" with an updated 5S (or whatever they call it) coming out in June.
I don't think Apple should have ever moved away from the June release schedule. It makes more sense to release a product at a time of year that is not otherwise high demand, so that you can fill the initial enthusiast demand and then get the channel ready for higher demand periods like back to school and the holidays.
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
My quick take on this recent "story":
1) It's not really surprising that Apple is cutting orders for this quarter: this always happens after holiday quarter. 2) The Nikkei version of the story suggested that the initial order was around 65 million units. Even half of that would be a great sales number, since the report just refers to the iPhone 5, not the 4/4S. 3) If this news is actually current (which is a big if), it may reflect the fact that Apple didn't come to an agreement to add China Mobile this spring. Filling China Mobile channel/initial demand is the only way that Apple could have built/sold 65 million iPhone 5 units this quarter.
Conclusion: I stand by my 53 million unit estimate for Q1. I am not sure what to project for Q2, since it depends heavily on where channel inventory stands. My best guess right now is 42 million, of which roughly 75% are iPhone 5.
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
That's not really a fair comparison, because the market didn't exist until Apple invented the iPhone. The better comparison is sales in the last year. Apple sold about 125 million iPhones in FY12 alone.
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
I haven't seen anything like that about iPad mini sales in China. There's really no way AAPL could have built enough minis to sell 8 million in China already.
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
Why $100 Brent Will Not Last Through 2013 [View article]
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
There's one thing on which I'll agree with most of Wall St. Next week's earnings report will be the most important one in years.
Analysts Likely To Be Shocked As Amazon's Growth Disappoints [View article]
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
When all this technical selling settles out, I think there will be a huge rally back to $600 or even $700.
AMR Shares Are Still Fool's Gold [View article]
In this situation, I think the responsibility for the airport debt is tied to American's leases at DFW. As long as American keeps the leases, DFW won't have a claim (because it won't have a loss). I imagine the contract was written so that DFW would be protected in the event that American used bankruptcy to reject its leases at DFW and downsize there. That's not going to happen, though
AMR Shares Are Still Fool's Gold [View article]
HP Could Be A Hidden Beneficiary Of Yen Devaluation [View article]
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
I don't think Apple should have ever moved away from the June release schedule. It makes more sense to release a product at a time of year that is not otherwise high demand, so that you can fill the initial enthusiast demand and then get the channel ready for higher demand periods like back to school and the holidays.
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
1) It's not really surprising that Apple is cutting orders for this quarter: this always happens after holiday quarter.
2) The Nikkei version of the story suggested that the initial order was around 65 million units. Even half of that would be a great sales number, since the report just refers to the iPhone 5, not the 4/4S.
3) If this news is actually current (which is a big if), it may reflect the fact that Apple didn't come to an agreement to add China Mobile this spring. Filling China Mobile channel/initial demand is the only way that Apple could have built/sold 65 million iPhone 5 units this quarter.
Conclusion: I stand by my 53 million unit estimate for Q1. I am not sure what to project for Q2, since it depends heavily on where channel inventory stands. My best guess right now is 42 million, of which roughly 75% are iPhone 5.
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]