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Adam Levine-Weinberg

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  • HP's Dip Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    As I recall eBay turned a tidy profit on Skype... You can blame that on Steve Ballmer being dumber than Meg Whitman if you like, but that's the fact.
    Aug 29 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Blackberry 10 Return Research In Motion To Profitability? [View article]
    I agree. Skype is really crucial, because having a front-facing camera is sort of useless if you can't use it to video-chat...
    Aug 28 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Fooled By Strong August Retail Sales [View article]
    Thanks! Glad you enjoyed it.
    Aug 28 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP's Dip Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I completely agree. A lot of people like to draw a straight line through a stock's chart, and assume that stocks can't reverse, even if the company's fortunes change. I think HP stock may flounder for the next couple of months, depending on management's FY13 forecast which will be announced in early October. But the long term story is intact.
    Aug 28 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP's Dip Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I guess we'll just have to wait and see. I won't argue that HP's acquisitions have destroyed tons of value, but Meg Whitman is smart enough to not make that same mistake.

    I honestly don't think they have much to "dig out" of to justify the current stock price. All they have to do is make sure things don't get worse. So far, Meg has kept the promises she made and I'll stick with HP until it seems otherwise.
    Aug 28 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP's Dip Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. But I'm not sure what the valuation comparison between the two is. RIMM isn't profitable, whereas HP is. If you think that there's some reasonable likelihood of HP becoming unprofitable in the next couple of years, then it would be a reasonable comparison.

    The catalyst for the stock is that earnings have bottomed out and will start to grow from here (albeit slowly at first). I'll take my 3% dividend until then.
    Aug 28 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Blackberry 10 Return Research In Motion To Profitability? [View article]
    OK, I definitely agree with that statement. To put a finer point on it, I think the key to RIM's future prospects is whether BB10 can manage to grab some users away from Android. I don't think RIM has much hope of competing with Apple for customers, but the Android user base is bigger, more cost-sensitive, and probably somewhat less brand-loyal on average.
    Aug 28 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Blackberry 10 Return Research In Motion To Profitability? [View article]
    Yes, that's true. What I'm saying is that if BB10 doesn't revive earnings next year, RIM really will be in a "doom spiral".
    Aug 28 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From J.C. Penney: Management Is In Denial [View article]
    Whether deliberately or not, I think JCP is increasingly moving to a focus on clothing over other traditional department store merchandise. Furniture is one of those things that may require sales/coupons to move in high volume.
    Aug 28 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From J.C. Penney: Management Is In Denial [View article]
    Thanks for the comment
    Aug 28 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Blackberry 10 Return Research In Motion To Profitability? [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, but I disagree. If RIM's new devices next year can't get the company back in the black, I think the chances of them pulling themselves out of hole later on (i.e. 2016) are minimal. In my opinion, a bad CY 2013 basically forces the break-up/sale of the company or assets for whatever the highest bidder is willing to pay.
    Aug 28 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Blackberry 10 Return Research In Motion To Profitability? [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I basically agree with your thinking.
    Aug 28 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Blackberry 10 Return Research In Motion To Profitability? [View article]
    As a current RIM shareholder, I hope that's true. The BB7 upgrade cycle was very weak, but that could be explained by the fact that users were expecting the new devices to come soon. I'd call the BB10 launch a failure if the company ships 25-30 million devices in the first half of next year but sell through drops off quickly (after the diehards upgrade). The company can't survive just on a burst of 20 million devoted fans in the developed world who upgrade every 2-3 years. And while Blackberry is quite popular in some developing markets, the margins there are terrible. RIM doesn't make much money (if any) on device sales in those markets.

    I happen to know several long-time BB users who recently switched to the iPhone. But I agree that a lot of the remaining users in the U.S. and other developed markets will upgrade to BB10 shortly after its release.
    Aug 28 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From J.C. Penney: Management Is In Denial [View article]
    Coupons get people out the door to shop. It creates a sense of urgency. JCP may offer "good value" with its new pricing policy, but people never have a particular reason to go there if the prices never change. Whereas a sale at Macy's brings people in, which creates the possibility of impulse purchases.

    The free haircut promotion at JCP is trying to achieve the same thing; it gets people in the door who may then take a look around and buy something on impulse.
    Aug 27 07:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From J.C. Penney: Management Is In Denial [View article]
    The point I was trying to make was more related to the overly optimistic cash flow targets JCP has set than the company's liquidity. I think bankruptcy is a long shot at this point, but that doesn't make the balance sheet "rock solid", to use management's phrase. JCP management keeps making overreaching predictions that they later have to retract. Given that track record, I don't think they deserve the benefit of the doubt.

    The company will probably hit its cash low point at the end of Q3 next year. Assuming no draws on the credit line and no further asset sales, I'm guessing the cash/investments position will be $400-$500 million at that point, assuming no recession. If the economy goes downhill, the number will be worse. Obviously, it depends a lot on things like the AP vs. AR balances.
    Aug 27 07:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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