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Adam Levine-Weinberg

 
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  • Don't Be Fooled By Strong August Retail Sales [View article]
    Update: as expected August SSS numbers are coming in quite strong. Target was up 4.2%, Macy's up 5.1%, Kohl's up 3.4%. It looks like retailers will move higher today, and I think the next couple of weeks will offer good points to take profits in the sector and get out.
    Aug 30, 2012. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Set To Rally This Fall [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Closing a plant will be expensive, but Ford has plenty of cash in its automotive unit. Management said that the problem is structural, not cyclical, on the Q2 call. From that perspective, I think the market would give F a boost even if the company has to pay a couple of years of severance.

    Also, while the company is booking taxes on its profit, it's not paying anything, and won't be paying anything for years to come. The company still has over $10 billion in deferred tax credits to offset income. The company would have to earn roughly $40 billion before it starts owing cash taxes.
    Aug 30, 2012. 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • HP's Dip Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I think the corporate board system in the U.S. is a travesty. But at 99% of public companies, that's basically the way it works.

    All I mean to say about Autonomy is that I think HP will turn the business around and having a good data analysis software product will help them sell other products over the long term. But Autonomy was over-priced relative to earnings potential to begin with, and then HP had to pay a premium to buy the company. HP should have passed on the acquisition, but it was/is a good strategic fit.
    Aug 29, 2012. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP's Dip Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Printers and PCs are not a growth engine. I hope that was clear from the article. But I don't expect the company to be losing money there, either. I think you are focusing too much on revenue as opposed to profit; for a number of years, much less than half of HP's profit has come from PCs and printers.

    The long term story is IT services, but particularly bundling servers, storage, networking equipment, and software for "big data" analysis and cloud infrastructure. IBM is obviously a strong competitor, but I think HP has the assets to win a good chunk of business as well.
    Aug 29, 2012. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP's Dip Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I think it was a smart strategy but a terrible price. In any case, board members don't really have much control over anything aside from hiring/firing the CEO. They don't have the time to actually figure out what a particular acquisition will be worth; they have to work with the information the CEO gives them, for the most part.
    Aug 29, 2012. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP's Dip Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    As I recall eBay turned a tidy profit on Skype... You can blame that on Steve Ballmer being dumber than Meg Whitman if you like, but that's the fact.
    Aug 29, 2012. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Blackberry 10 Return Research In Motion To Profitability? [View article]
    I agree. Skype is really crucial, because having a front-facing camera is sort of useless if you can't use it to video-chat...
    Aug 28, 2012. 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Fooled By Strong August Retail Sales [View article]
    Thanks! Glad you enjoyed it.
    Aug 28, 2012. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP's Dip Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I completely agree. A lot of people like to draw a straight line through a stock's chart, and assume that stocks can't reverse, even if the company's fortunes change. I think HP stock may flounder for the next couple of months, depending on management's FY13 forecast which will be announced in early October. But the long term story is intact.
    Aug 28, 2012. 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP's Dip Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I guess we'll just have to wait and see. I won't argue that HP's acquisitions have destroyed tons of value, but Meg Whitman is smart enough to not make that same mistake.

    I honestly don't think they have much to "dig out" of to justify the current stock price. All they have to do is make sure things don't get worse. So far, Meg has kept the promises she made and I'll stick with HP until it seems otherwise.
    Aug 28, 2012. 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP's Dip Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. But I'm not sure what the valuation comparison between the two is. RIMM isn't profitable, whereas HP is. If you think that there's some reasonable likelihood of HP becoming unprofitable in the next couple of years, then it would be a reasonable comparison.

    The catalyst for the stock is that earnings have bottomed out and will start to grow from here (albeit slowly at first). I'll take my 3% dividend until then.
    Aug 28, 2012. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Blackberry 10 Return Research In Motion To Profitability? [View article]
    OK, I definitely agree with that statement. To put a finer point on it, I think the key to RIM's future prospects is whether BB10 can manage to grab some users away from Android. I don't think RIM has much hope of competing with Apple for customers, but the Android user base is bigger, more cost-sensitive, and probably somewhat less brand-loyal on average.
    Aug 28, 2012. 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Blackberry 10 Return Research In Motion To Profitability? [View article]
    Yes, that's true. What I'm saying is that if BB10 doesn't revive earnings next year, RIM really will be in a "doom spiral".
    Aug 28, 2012. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From J.C. Penney: Management Is In Denial [View article]
    Whether deliberately or not, I think JCP is increasingly moving to a focus on clothing over other traditional department store merchandise. Furniture is one of those things that may require sales/coupons to move in high volume.
    Aug 28, 2012. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From J.C. Penney: Management Is In Denial [View article]
    Thanks for the comment
    Aug 28, 2012. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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