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Adam Levine-Weinberg

 
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  • Apple May Be Worth $1111, But Shares Won't Get There Anytime Soon [View article]
    I'm not sure what a picture of a stock chart has to do with Apple's prospects. I'll leave it at that.
    Nov 27 03:38 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Read Between The Lines Of The Apple Downgrade [View article]
    You can check out some of my articles on Amazon for my short thesis there. I think sales growth will drop off next year, and margins have always been terrible (and always will be terrible). The stock just trades at a ridiculous multiple. AMZN seems like a classic bubble stock to me. I can't tell you exactly when the bubble will burst, only that it will eventually happen.
    Dec 18 11:06 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biggest Threat To Apple's Sales Estimates [View article]
    I find articles like this to be a bizarre inversion of reality. The iPhone 4S was a minor upgrade relative to the iPhone 4. It provided a faster processor and new software (most notably Siri). This drove more than 70% year over year growth in iPhone in FY12. By contrast, the iPhone 5 came only 11 months after the introduction of the 4S, and in addition to boosting the processor speed and updating the software (again), Apple increased the screen size to 4" and added LTE. And yet you expect this product to result in a massive loss of market share for Apple, along with declining ASPs... I don't get it.

    Also, the iPhone isn't even available through the world's biggest wireless carrier, China Mobile. Most people expect that China Mobile will become a carrier partner at some point in 2013, which could drive an additional 20M device sales in the first year alone (with plenty of room for growth).

    It's also noteworthy that even in the doomsday scenario you spell out, the company would still be trading within 10% of its fair value.
    Nov 13 05:31 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
    I think of Mad Money as something like a sitcom... or an improv show.
    Jan 14 02:45 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Peaked: The Warning Signs Are Multiplying [View article]
    Hi David, welcome to the community. I'm sorry that all of these people are bashing your article. I think you make some fair points.

    That said, I wouldn't agree that sentiment is frenzied (or even all that positive). To be sure, there are some fans who think that Apple can do no wrong and have unrealistic expectations for the company and stock. This guy Brian White at Topeka keeps going on and on about his $1,111 price target for the end of next year; I don't see that happening. On the other hand, a lot of people (particularly Wall St. analysts) have been chopping down their expectations recently. There are a lot of estimates for EPS around $50 (a very modest 10-15% growth rate). I would be pretty surprised if Apple doesn't get FY13 EPS to the mid-$50s.

    From a hardware perspective, the 4S was a step change from the iPhone 4 (a 16-month old product by Oct. 2011). Not surprisingly, GMs were very good from the get-go. Margins on the iPhone 5 will improve over the next few months as the supply chain gets experience with the new product. Moreover, I think the iPhone 5 will sell a lot more units than the 4S because of the differentiation in form factor as well as internal components. Obviously, LTE helps as well.

    I don't know if Apple will sell 200 million iPhones this year. But I think 180 million is very possible, which implies that earnings will not follow Apple's typical seasonality. I think this will lead to positive surprises next spring and summer.
    Oct 28 01:10 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Netflix After Q3 Results: Fair Value $70 Per Share, 80% Downside Potential [View article]
    Great comment! It's too easy to just plug and chug with numbers that try to describe long-term growth. FCF could quite conceivably expand by several orders of magnitude in the next 5-10 years.

    However, while your subscriber target seems very achievable, I am skeptical that content costs will "only" grow to $6 billion by 2020. Just looking at the "cost of revenue" in the two streaming segments, it appears that Netflix is on pace to spend $2.5 billion-$2.6 billion globally on content. That's growing at 25%-30% annually! Even if the cost increases slow to a CAGR of 18%, content cost will hit $8 billion by 2020. That seems like a much more likely scenario.
    Oct 22 07:25 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why $100 Brent Will Not Last Through 2013 [View article]
    The situation in the Middle East is not as bad as you think. Sure, it's possible that Israel goes crazy and tries to take out Iran's nuclear facilities, but it won't be able to do that successfully unless it's willing to accept massive casualties. Therefore I think such an attack is unlikely to happen. Aside from that, I don't see much risk of interstate war. If there were a revolution in Saudi Arabia, that's when I would get worried about oil supply.
    Dec 31 09:03 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RIM's BB10 Chances Better Than Analysts Expect [View article]
    I don't expect RIMM to compete with AAPL. If it could actually become competitive again, you could justify a $100 share price a couple of years from now. I'll settle for a double, though...
    Dec 3 12:14 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Gloom Intensifying [View article]
    People are so darn impatient with HP. Meg's barely been there for a year, and in that she's managed to meet her earnings guidance and set out an agenda for cutting costs and transforming HP's structure to be leaner. Whether it will be agile or under-equipped won't be known for a couple of years. But the idea that a company generating about $10 billion in annual cash flow is beyond saving is just ridiculous, in my opinion.

    Obviously, revenues are down year over year, but the concurrent drop in margins has punished HPQ's bottom line more. As the cost cuts roll through over the next couple of years, I expect the margins (and profits) to improve. Any future revenue gains would just be gravy.
    Sep 14 12:25 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford's $4.90 EPS, $20 Billion Net Income Bests Its Peers [View article]
    This article makes no sense at all. Almost all of the $4.90 EPS that you tout is due to a one-time reversal of a tax valuation allowance. The idea that there's a competition between F and GM for shareholders (as opposed to customers) is totally idiotic. I honestly can't believe the SA team let this through...
    Apr 25 05:50 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Stop The Dividend [View article]
    I think the dividend is a useful hedge against the possibility, however remote, that the stock is overvalued. Tim Cook essentially acknowledged your point when he chose to devote essentially all of the increase in Apple's capital return plans to share buybacks.

    Also, unless you are in the highest income bracket, I believe qualified dividends are still taxed at 15%. If you are in the 15% bracket or below, dividends are tax free.
    Jul 2 04:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is RIM Ready To Become A Smartphone Leader Again? [View article]
    What sort of poll was that? Do you have a link?
    Jan 17 08:42 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Read Between The Lines Of The Apple Downgrade [View article]
    I'm not sure what your point is. If you think Apple will put up good numbers, now is a great time to buy. The fact that analysts are lowering projections means that the bounce back will be even more powerful if/when Apple beats.

    If you can perfectly time the market, that's great. For a company like Apple, you don't have to. I'm happy to sit on paper losses for a couple of months if need be, because by every metric Apple is vastly undervalued. If the stock goes lower, I would be more than happy to buy more shares (holding all else equal, of course).
    Dec 18 11:04 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Broken Promises At J.C. Penney [View article]
    Look, I disclose my positions in stocks when I write. I'm just trying to convey to my readers why I am investing in the way that I am. Some people feel like you do, others have told me I have no business writing about a stock if I "have no skin in the game."

    I wrote a negative piece on J.C. Penney last month, at which point I was not short the stock. If (as you suggest) I am just writing pieces to try to move the stock in my favor, I obviously wouldn't have done that. Also, I'd be an idiot for trying, since my articles here are clearly not going to have any influence on the market.
    Sep 20 01:54 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Put A Fork In It: Nvidia Is Done [View article]
    I think the argument that discrete GPUs are going away is very overplayed. People said Sandy Bridge integrated graphics, and then Ivy Bridge integrated graphics, were going to make a discrete GPU unnecessary. If you're a remotely serious gamer, you still need a discrete GPU. If you have a retina display like some of the new MacBook Pros, you need a discrete GPU. There is plenty of money left to be made here. I also think that the mobile business has some competitive advantages due to Nvidia's advantages in graphics technology. Since they haven't offered a baseband processor in the past, they've been playing with one hand tied behind their back in mobile up until now. We're likely to see the first integrated baseband processors (codename "Grey" next year), and that will put Nvidia and Qualcomm alone at the top of the pyramid in my opinion. That said, Qualcomm still has an enormous lead.

    Also, I checked out some of the links that "support" your arguments. You've got an article from 2000 to "prove" that PowerVR is more efficient. Really? That's a year after Nvidia shipped its first GPU. They've made a lot of progress in the last 12 years, as you'd expect from a company that's spent tens of billions of dollars on R&D.
    Sep 14 08:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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