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Adam Muller

 
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  • Darling A Buy Before Earnings Reveal The Full Year Impact Of Griffin Acquisition [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Obviously I'm bullish on the name and have a reasonably large position.
    Feb 1, 2012. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Apple Earnings With Options [View article]
    If you see a 430 call and the stock increases to 460, your common stock gets called away. You capture the upside until it hits the strike (you keep the premium from the option you sold) and then you out. So if the call premium was $11, Apple would have to increase beyond $441 before you are losing out on the upside move, but you are protected on the downside by the $11 premium you took in.
    Jan 23, 2012. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Conservative Analyst Estimates Are Missing The Incredible Growth Story [View article]
    On a discounted cash flow basis if Apple simply continues to generate $33bn of FCF/yr the value of that cash flow stream (assuming a 3% perpetuity growth rate representing inflation) is greater than the price Apple trades at today. This holds true at a 2% perpetuity growth rate as well.
    Jan 21, 2012. 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Conservative Analyst Estimates Are Missing The Incredible Growth Story [View article]
    Apple generated $33 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2011. Just look at the 10K in the cash flow statement.
    Jan 20, 2012. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Conservative Analyst Estimates Are Missing The Incredible Growth Story [View article]
    I totally agree. If Apple were to simply maintain it's current rate of cash flow generation it would still be worth more than where it trades today. Apple is unique in that it is a growth and a value stock and is cheap on either metric.
    Jan 19, 2012. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Apple Earnings With Options [View article]
    I hope you are right. It's too bad that January options expiration is before earnings.
    Jan 19, 2012. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Apple Earnings With Options [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. That is a very fair point that I hadn't considered. Theoretically I stand by my analysis, but, as you point you, there are practical restrictions given Apple's $430 share price. It would still apply to someone who already owns 100 shares or more and wants to play earnings.
    Jan 19, 2012. 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo: Uncertainty Around Value Of Core Business Makes It Difficult To Invest [View article]
    I would like to add one comment to my TiVo post. I saw an article this morning suggesting the Apple's iTV could have DVR capabilities. This is just a rumor but should it be true it is possible they would run into TiVo's intellectual property. An announcement be made that Apple's has licensed IP from TiVo would be extremely positive for TiVo and is not baked into my analysis or any analysis on TiVo that I have seen. Again, let me emphasize that this is a rumor and it is possible Apple will devise a work-around any existing IP, but nonetheless I thought it was worth mentioning.
    Jan 18, 2012. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo: Uncertainty Around Value Of Core Business Makes It Difficult To Invest [View article]
    Sam, I certainly will revisit post earnings and the first number I will look for in their release will be MSO subscriber adds. It may take a few quarters to really see how subs will ramp but I believe that is the key metric to assess the potential value of the core business. Further, if they were to settle with Verizon and the economic surprise on the upside that would also be a reason to revisit.
    Jan 17, 2012. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo: Uncertainty Around Value Of Core Business Makes It Difficult To Invest [View article]
    Sam, I apologize for not acknowledging my prior posting. Note that I am not saying to sell or short TiVo, I am simply suggesting that I am no longer comfortable with the margin of safety of making an investment today. A lot has changed since my prior post. They have settled with AT&T and we have seen another quarter of results. Rumors regarding Apple's iTV product had not begun. I still think that buying TiVo today is an option on the success of their core business, I just am not comfortable with the potential return vs the risk.
    Jan 16, 2012. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo: Uncertainty Around Value Of Core Business Makes It Difficult To Invest [View article]
    My numbers are based on a fully diluted share count taking into account stock options, unvested restricted share units, etc.
    Jan 16, 2012. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Set Up To Materially Beat Consensus [View article]
    I believe we will see a dividend in 2012, I'm just not sure if it will be commensurate with Q1 earnings.
    Jan 8, 2012. 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Set Up To Materially Beat Consensus [View article]
    Thanks for your time. Take $10.50 for Q1 and apply the same earnings progression as FY 2011. It's illustrative but within the realm of the possible especially if they introduce a new iPad and an LTE iPhone 5 in the current fiscal year.
    Jan 8, 2012. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Darling International, Inc.: Rendering Profits [View article]
    I don't understand your disclosure. Are you long puts meaning that you are effectively betting against the company via put options? Or have your sold puts making you long DAR? thanks
    Jan 4, 2012. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Joe's Jeans: A Great Value for the Long-Term Investor [View article]
    No problem. The stock is down and they have not delivered the past few quarters as the women's wholesale business and been very poor. The write down was related to some of their first full price stores. The entered some leases right before the financial crisis, which turned out to be terrible timing. Their new New York store is doing great and gives them a successful retail store model to build on. Stock is trading well below book value (and at tangible book value). I think there is more value there but stock likely won't move much until they show a turnaround by, at the very least, stopping the decline in the women's wholesale business. If you are patient I think it could turn out to be a good investment in the long run. I still think it's a great brand, but management needs to execute to extract value from the brand.
    Nov 17, 2011. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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