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Adam Muller

 
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  • Rick's Cabaret: A Sin Business Perhaps, But It Generates A Lot Of Cash And Is Cheap [View article]
    Thanks for the question. I agree with ~$1 for this year. On a forward basis if they grow another 20% they would get to $1.20. It's illustrative. It should trade based on a forward P/E. On a backward looking basis it is also very cheap looking at LTM EBITDA.
    Oct 28, 2011. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Many iPhones Can Apple Sell In The Holiday Quarter? [View article]
    New iPhone converts (many from RIMM) are further upside - very good point. I agree that the quarter is going to be very strong.
    Oct 26, 2011. 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Use Options To Capitalize On A Potential Yahoo Deal [View article]
    I think that makes sense. There are also numerous outcomes that don't involve a total sale of the company. They could just sell their Alibaba stake back to Jack Ma and give the proceeds to shareholders in a special dividend, or just monetize Yahoo Japan. Of course there are tax leakage issues and this may not appease Third Point and it they would need to get fair value for the assets. My guess is Yahoo Japan is the first to go, with or without a deal for the whole company.
    Oct 22, 2011. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Use Options To Capitalize On A Potential Yahoo Deal [View article]
    Fair point. I was actually looking at the April 2012 put, because if a deal happens the expiration on the put is somewhat less relevant, but I should have pointed that out. Nice catch.
    Oct 21, 2011. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: An Inexpensive Call Option On The Future [View article]
    Both would be positive for the stock for sure.
    Oct 21, 2011. 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: An Inexpensive Call Option On The Future [View article]
    Sorry for the confusion. I was using the call option as a metaphor for buying the common stock. Given low valuation I see little downside, so it's an "option" on the future. That being said I think an actual option strategy on MSFT make sense. Writing covered calls 15-20% up from its current price to generate additional yield makes a lot of sense to me. Thanks for the comment!
    Oct 21, 2011. 08:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: An Inexpensive Call Option On The Future [View article]
    The idea is that buying the stock is an option on their future prospects. The stock has a 3% dividend yield.
    Oct 20, 2011. 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jamba Could Become Something Big [View article]
    I was looking at the potential for Jamba, but not suggesting when it would occur. I agree that it's a good buy at current levels.
    Oct 5, 2011. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Share Buybacks And Acquisitions Make Boise A Bargain [View article]
    I think that an acquisition at 6x EBITDA versus buying back shares at 3x seems odd and I'm looking forward to the conference call at 11am today to hear more about the deal. That being said I think adding more packaging and de-emphasising uncoated free sheet makes strategic sense. I do agree that any kind of re-valuation can take time and this is a long-term investment.
    Oct 4, 2011. 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FXCM: A Great Stock And A Way To Participate In Pershing Square's Hong Kong Dollar Trade [View article]
    took cash flow per share straight from bloomberg. will check my other math. thanks for bringing it to my attention.
    Sep 23, 2011. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: The Dividend Increase To $0.20 Per Quarter Portends A Material Increase In The Stock Price [View article]
    I think that's a very reasonable strategy in these markets. Set targets and try to lock in nice dividend yields. You should look at CNK (Cinemark). Strong US movie exhibitor with growing Latin America presence as well and a 4+% dividend yield.
    Sep 22, 2011. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Modest Dividend Would Be A Good Idea [View article]
    in Apple's case if they had been buying back shares at regular intervals over the same few years it would have been massively accretive to EPS and they wouldn't have such a massive cash hoard earning nothing on their balance sheet.

    I believe MSFT should double its dividend and borrow to fund it if too much of their cash is trapped overseas.
    Sep 14, 2011. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett Packard: The Risk/Reward Proposition At Its Current Valuation Is Too Compelling To Ignore [View article]
    You hit on one of the most interesting facets of HPQ's current state. The valuation may be well deserved (as you suggest), but it's also cheap. Maybe it's a value trap. Or maybe it offers a great option on a recovery, break-up, sale, etc. The risk reward seems compelling.
    Sep 9, 2011. 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo Is Clearly Undervalued [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I actually think that one of the risks is that management receives and rejects a compelling acquisition offer. But I do agree that their product is terrific and management appears very bullish on their prospects.
    Sep 9, 2011. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TiVo Is Clearly Undervalued [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I did see your article. I think the real way TiVo unlocks value is by selling the company. It could be years before they can use their deferred tax assets but a profitable company could use them now (subject to 382 limitations of course). The core business could be worth a lot to a Microsoft, Goggle or Cisco (I think Cisco has enough going on and don't think they would buy TiVo). I think you made a good point re: Google TV but an acquisition of TiVo could really jump start that for them.
    Sep 8, 2011. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
81 Comments
16 Likes