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Adam Muller

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  • A TiVo Acquisition Would Be Cheaper Than It Appears [View article]
    You make a fair point. Tivo has signed some good deals with cable providers but has yet to show that it has a core business that can be profitable. I certainly prefer companies with great operating businesses versus a company with the majority of its value in deferred tax assets, balance sheet cash, and IP. That being said Tivo has a great product and Americans are watching more TV than ever. They just need to monetize it. Time will tell but for me the M&A put is an important part of the investment thesis.
    Jul 7 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macy's: Despite Strong Outlook It's Still Trading at a Discount to Peers [View article]
    I have looked at it in the past but haven't refreshed in some time. Let me take a look and post something.
    Jul 7 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caribou Coffee: Valuation Still Reasonable Despite Stock's Recent Run-Up [View article]
    Thanks for the comment and I agree. Investing using the "greater fool theory" is not a recipe for long-term success.
    Jul 6 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 for Movie Exhibitors Ends With 2 Days of Transformers [View article]
    Simply put if revenue is higher but price is less (b/c less 3D tickets are being sold) then volume (attendance) is up.
    Jul 3 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Significant Upside Move: Does the Market Smell a Catalyst? [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I find this type of illustrative analysis while not exact is helpful. Valuation is an art as much as it is a science. I agree that no one can predict cash flows for 10 years, which is precisely the point of the exercise. Knowing that cash flow would have to grow annually at a high rate (be that 20% or 30% or more) to justify the valuation today is only one consideration in the ultimate investment decision, but I consider it an important consideration.
    Jul 2 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look at Lululemon's Valuation at $100 per share [View article]
    What's GIGO?

    In terms of the discount rate, on your bloomberg type LULU Equity WACC [GO] and you can look at how it was calculated.
    Jun 23 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look at Lululemon's Valuation at $100 per share [View article]
    Interesting question regarding Nike's historical FCF growth and worth taking a look at. If I run the analysis I will post it. I'm neither long nor short LULU and I love their product, but the valuation is too lofty for me no matter how much I like their product.
    Jun 23 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macy's Is Still Undervalued [View article]
    Excellent...can I take credit?
    Jun 22 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look at Lululemon's Valuation at $100 per share [View article]
    I did run the same reverse DCF analysis on CRM and came to the same conclusion, the required growth is off-the-charts.
    Jun 22 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Should Buy Tivo Next [View article]
    TiVo has certainly had execution issues since they essentially invented the DVR. They may have been slow to react when cable companies began offering "generic" DVRs to cable subscribers for $10 per month. What they have done well is aggressively protect their intellectual property, which is key to the technology value of the business. I would also argue that their technology is vastly superior to the "generic" cable DVR offering, which cable companies are essentially admitting by working with TiVo today. Tivo's ability to integrate the search interface with both traditional cable TV and web-based content is the future - Apple and Google, amongst others, understand this evolution and are moving towards it. And while it is evolution and not revolution the traditional cable TV providers, who can be slow to adapt, see the writing on the wall, which is why they are now willing to embrace TiVo as part of their offerings.
    May 13 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care Investment Real EstateTrust: A Classic Small Cap Value Investment [View article]
    Thanks for the thoughtful comments. If you google Bickford you can find some information. Of note they have sold assets to other REITS. For example they sold several facilities in July 2010 to National Health Investors (ticker NHI). My sense is that Bickford is real. I also belive that Tiptree did their due diligence during the sale process; they are smart money and would have scrubbed the assets in detail before making the investment. All of your questions are valid. I think we will learn a lot more (including regarding the dividend) when the first quarter is released sometime in the next few weeks.
    May 3 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macy's: A Much Improved Balance Sheet Will Lead to Good Things for Equity [View article]
    I appreciate your comment. Given that you are focused on dividends Macy's today might not be the right investment for you, but it may be worth monitoring. Once they get to investment grade the dividend may be increased to a more material level. In terms of the price chart, I try not to put too much weight on the past - it is what the stock does going forward that matters and companies evolve over time, management changes, focus and strategies change, etc. Quite simplistically if you believe the enterprise value of M today and debt is paid down there is more equity value with the additional effect of freeing up future cash flow to be returned to shareholders. There are of course risks the most obvious being the spending of the U.S. consumer.
    May 2 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Care Investment Real EstateTrust: A Classic Small Cap Value Investment [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. I agree that there is a degree of risk here given the small size of the company. However I do not think there is any incentive for Tiptree/Tricadia to manipulate the dividend. I believe that they want to maximize it given that they have 92% ownership. Further, the Tiptree vehicle is not just for Tricadia's investment in CVTR and would want the dividend from CVTR to fund it's growth and cash flow. I do not view this investment as speculation. While it may just be semantics this is an undervalued asset trading below book value. It has associated risks, as do all investments, but the potential return justifies the risk in my view, which makes this a value investment and not a speculative buy. That's just my view on the distinction between investing and speculating but I do agree with you that there is risk.
    Apr 27 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care Investment Real EstateTrust: A Classic Small Cap Value Investment [View article]
    Thanks Brad. I would characterize it more as a value play versus a growth play given that it trades below book value and when the deal costs no longer distort the financials the dividend yield will be above comparable healthcare REITs (assuming the current share price).
    Apr 26 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care Investment Real EstateTrust: A Classic Small Cap Value Investment [View article]
    I agree that the 10-K is difficult. They do provide their calculation of FFO and AFFO, which is helpful and is why I used FFO as a proxy to think about the potential for the dividend. We will learn a lot more after the first quarter when we see their 10-Q without the Tiptree deal costs, etc. muddying up the financials.
    Apr 25 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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