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Adam Muller

 
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  • Billionaire Steven Cohen Recently Purchased These Dividend Stocks [View article]
    JC Penney canceled their dividend in May when they reported Q1 earnings.
    Jul 2 04:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Growth Of The iCloud User Base Is The Most Important Metric To Focus On [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. The 100% iPhone ownership is just an assumptions - the idea being that to be on iCloud you have at least 1 Apple device...whether it's an iPhone or an Ipad is not as relevant to the analysis. The focus should be on what percent of iCloud users have more than 1 device...2,3,4, etc. And the conclusion is that most probably do or will and those devices will get upgraded over time as new versions are released.
    Jun 4 12:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: An Inexpensive Call Option On The Future [View article]
    Sorry for the confusion. I was using the call option as a metaphor for buying the common stock. Given low valuation I see little downside, so it's an "option" on the future. That being said I think an actual option strategy on MSFT make sense. Writing covered calls 15-20% up from its current price to generate additional yield makes a lot of sense to me. Thanks for the comment!
    Oct 21 08:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would Apple Look Like at $500/Share? [View article]
    There you go. Short Amazon and use the proceeds to buy Apple...then just wait! I think the combination of its size and the uncertainly around Apple without Steve Jobs keep the price down somewhat.
    Jul 8 09:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Joe's Jeans - The Potential For A 200% Return Is Supported By Q2 Earnings [View article]
    Thanks for the comment and I hope it plays out the way you describe. Fashion is tricky and they need to stay on top of trends, etc. It wasn't that long ago that they got stuck with a lot of jeggings inventory. They also need to be disciplined in store openings and carefully select their locations. For example, the SoHo New York store was a long time coming but has been exceptional. I like the product and think the strategy makes sense. You make an excellent point that at these levels it is largely a retail stock - it will take some time before it can be appealing to institutional buyers, but I'm rooting for it.
    Jul 17 01:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No Real Faith In True Religion [View article]
    I think your short thesis is misguided and dangerous. Joes Jeans reported last week and had strength in their wholesale business. TRLG may show stabilization or even growth. Further, cotton is a very small component of the cost of high end jeans and should not have a material impact either way. TRLG also has a strong balance sheet. I believe the largest risk would be if they missed a fashion trend and sales fell as a result. My impression is they they are on trend. With strong retail sales I think a short on TRLG is risky.
    Apr 16 09:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Conservative Analyst Estimates Are Missing The Incredible Growth Story [View article]
    I totally agree. If Apple were to simply maintain it's current rate of cash flow generation it would still be worth more than where it trades today. Apple is unique in that it is a growth and a value stock and is cheap on either metric.
    Jan 19 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Many iPhones Can Apple Sell In The Holiday Quarter? [View article]
    New iPhone converts (many from RIMM) are further upside - very good point. I agree that the quarter is going to be very strong.
    Oct 26 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: An Inexpensive Call Option On The Future [View article]
    Both would be positive for the stock for sure.
    Oct 21 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Share Buybacks And Acquisitions Make Boise A Bargain [View article]
    I think that an acquisition at 6x EBITDA versus buying back shares at 3x seems odd and I'm looking forward to the conference call at 11am today to hear more about the deal. That being said I think adding more packaging and de-emphasising uncoated free sheet makes strategic sense. I do agree that any kind of re-valuation can take time and this is a long-term investment.
    Oct 4 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett Packard: The Risk/Reward Proposition At Its Current Valuation Is Too Compelling To Ignore [View article]
    You hit on one of the most interesting facets of HPQ's current state. The valuation may be well deserved (as you suggest), but it's also cheap. Maybe it's a value trap. Or maybe it offers a great option on a recovery, break-up, sale, etc. The risk reward seems compelling.
    Sep 9 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Macy's: A Much Improved Balance Sheet Will Lead to Good Things for Equity [View article]
    I appreciate your comment. Given that you are focused on dividends Macy's today might not be the right investment for you, but it may be worth monitoring. Once they get to investment grade the dividend may be increased to a more material level. In terms of the price chart, I try not to put too much weight on the past - it is what the stock does going forward that matters and companies evolve over time, management changes, focus and strategies change, etc. Quite simplistically if you believe the enterprise value of M today and debt is paid down there is more equity value with the additional effect of freeing up future cash flow to be returned to shareholders. There are of course risks the most obvious being the spending of the U.S. consumer.
    May 2 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Carmike Cinemas: It's Time To Revisit The Movies [View article]
    There are several factors that can lead to EBITDA growth diverging from box office.

    You have to look at price, concession per patron, and screen count. Carmike purchased a 40 screen chain last year in Q4. By my count Carmike will average 2,245 screens in Q3 2012 vs 2,217 in Q3 2011, a 1.3% gain. This can make up for approximately half of the negative 3% Q3 box office decline.

    It's also worth noting that CKEC could be a great acquisition for a chain like RGC. In addition to additional scale helping RGC negotiate lower film rental costs, CKEC has approximately $20mm in annual G&A, a material portion of which could be captured as synergies. I believe an acquirer like RGC or CNK could pay well into the $20 range and still have the deal be accretive to earnings. While I do not recommend investing in CKEC (or any company for that matter) just on the potential for a take-out, it does add to the margin of safety of the investment.
    Sep 2 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carmike Cinemas: It's Time To Revisit The Movies [View article]
    A very well written article and I agree completely. I don't believe the bomb threat had a material impact given i) it was dealt with quickly and ii) some movie-goers were likely not even aware of it.

    My model conservatively suggests Q3 EPS of $0.21 assuming no increase in average ticket price or concessions per patron, attendance per screen down 3% vs Q3 2011 but the average screen count is 2,245 vs 2,217 in Q3 2011 (Carmike acquired MNM in Oct 2011). As a result of the increased screen account my model suggests aggregate attendance falling only 1.8%.

    I don't expect ticket prices to increase in the quarter given the success of the Dark Knight, which was not available in 3D. Also, given the adult nature of the film concession per patron growth was likely also muted, although it may be greater than 0%, which is upside to my $0.21.

    I also agree that the movie slate in Q4 is extremely strong. Further, as a long term investor, I want to take a view on the movie slate for the next few years. With a Hobbit film each December for 3 years, Iron May 3 and the Hangover 3 in 2012, a Super Man reboot produced by Christopher Nolan in 2012, sequels to Thor and Captain America in production in 2013 and 2014, respectively, a new Hunger Games film in November 2013, 2014, and 2015, sequels to the Avengers and Avatar in 2015, there are ample tent pole movies that will generate significant buzz and box office.

    Carmike is a great long-term way to participate.
    Sep 1 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dark Knight Index: Batman's Success Really Matters [View article]
    You are neglecting to list Carmike Cinemas (CKEC), which in additional to benefits from the 2012 box office, is less expensive than Regal or Cinemark, operates in smaller cities and towns with less alternative entertainment options, and is a potential acquisition target for either Regal or Cinemark.
    Jul 26 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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