Seeking Alpha

Adam Muller

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  • Apple: The Growth Of The iCloud User Base Is The Most Important Metric To Focus On [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. The 100% iPhone ownership is just an assumptions - the idea being that to be on iCloud you have at least 1 Apple device...whether it's an iPhone or an Ipad is not as relevant to the analysis. The focus should be on what percent of iCloud users have more than 1 device...2,3,4, etc. And the conclusion is that most probably do or will and those devices will get upgraded over time as new versions are released.
    Jun 4 12:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Apple Earnings With Options [View article]
    If you see a 430 call and the stock increases to 460, your common stock gets called away. You capture the upside until it hits the strike (you keep the premium from the option you sold) and then you out. So if the call premium was $11, Apple would have to increase beyond $441 before you are losing out on the upside move, but you are protected on the downside by the $11 premium you took in.
    Jan 23 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Conservative Analyst Estimates Are Missing The Incredible Growth Story [View article]
    On a discounted cash flow basis if Apple simply continues to generate $33bn of FCF/yr the value of that cash flow stream (assuming a 3% perpetuity growth rate representing inflation) is greater than the price Apple trades at today. This holds true at a 2% perpetuity growth rate as well.
    Jan 21 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Conservative Analyst Estimates Are Missing The Incredible Growth Story [View article]
    Apple generated $33 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2011. Just look at the 10K in the cash flow statement.
    Jan 20 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Conservative Analyst Estimates Are Missing The Incredible Growth Story [View article]
    I totally agree. If Apple were to simply maintain it's current rate of cash flow generation it would still be worth more than where it trades today. Apple is unique in that it is a growth and a value stock and is cheap on either metric.
    Jan 19 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Apple Earnings With Options [View article]
    I hope you are right. It's too bad that January options expiration is before earnings.
    Jan 19 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Apple Earnings With Options [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. That is a very fair point that I hadn't considered. Theoretically I stand by my analysis, but, as you point you, there are practical restrictions given Apple's $430 share price. It would still apply to someone who already owns 100 shares or more and wants to play earnings.
    Jan 19 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Set Up To Materially Beat Consensus [View article]
    I believe we will see a dividend in 2012, I'm just not sure if it will be commensurate with Q1 earnings.
    Jan 8 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Set Up To Materially Beat Consensus [View article]
    Thanks for your time. Take $10.50 for Q1 and apply the same earnings progression as FY 2011. It's illustrative but within the realm of the possible especially if they introduce a new iPad and an LTE iPhone 5 in the current fiscal year.
    Jan 8 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Many iPhones Can Apple Sell In The Holiday Quarter? [View article]
    New iPhone converts (many from RIMM) are further upside - very good point. I agree that the quarter is going to be very strong.
    Oct 26 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Modest Dividend Would Be A Good Idea [View article]
    in Apple's case if they had been buying back shares at regular intervals over the same few years it would have been massively accretive to EPS and they wouldn't have such a massive cash hoard earning nothing on their balance sheet.

    I believe MSFT should double its dividend and borrow to fund it if too much of their cash is trapped overseas.
    Sep 14 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would Apple Look Like at $500/Share? [View article]
    There you go. Short Amazon and use the proceeds to buy Apple...then just wait! I think the combination of its size and the uncertainly around Apple without Steve Jobs keep the price down somewhat.
    Jul 8 09:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Adam Muller
COMMENTS STATS
81 Comments
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