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Adam Rabie

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  • Stocks Entering Secular Downtrend [View article]
    I'm looking for shifts in the production structure as early indicators of the credit system faltering. Early stage production prices falling much faster than consumer prices to me is a strong indication of the cycle reversing.
    Apr 23 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Entering Secular Downtrend [View article]
    It's a longer discussion but I am personally a believer that the Federal Reserve system is inherently unhealthy for stable and productive banking.

    If the Fed were to ultimately stabilize the credit system, however, they would need to monetize all the naked credit in existence and ban fractional banking. That or let the higher money aggregates collapse until base money is all that remains, and then ban fractional banking. In the interim, they at least need to cover the marginal costs of maintaining aggregate credit growth if they are to push the problem further down the line.
    Apr 22 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Entering Secular Downtrend [View article]
    Its a general problem that has accompanied all major bubbles recently like the producer price graph image showed. Its also a long documented feature of business cycles for over a century (that i know of), not something i conceived in some revisionist fashion.

    I would love to elaborate on the micro evidence and I will consider doing so for a future article.

    Keep in mind its not just capital equipment, but also the improper accounting of the cost of financial capital over the life of an investment that is similarly distorted in times like these with record low policy rates. Most of the recent bubbles were revealed to be so as the cost of funding slightly ticked up. This situation is the same whether the reality is imposed from rising rates or rising production costs.
    Apr 22 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Times For Gold Are Soon To End [View article]
    you can see spot Gold vs GLD on a chart here: http://bit.ly/Z66opw

    they do diverge over time for sure though not much overall, but certainly possible in the future.
    Apr 9 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Times For Gold Are Soon To End [View article]
    Graph of managed money short gold from COT:

    http://bit.ly/12Blkjf
    Apr 8 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Market Not A Bubble And Still Highly Undervalued [View article]
    bitcoin was made to increase in value relative to fiat currency and even goods and services. It's growth rate is set to slow and eventually be negligible so any productivity gains will mean a higher marginal price. The design of bitcoin was for the money supply to expand internally, by subdividing coins, rather than nominally via inflation.

    There is nothing wrong with a currency gaining value from increased productivity or even demand for liquidity or wealth preservation. Prices don't adjust immediately and if the purpose of bitcoin is to preserve wealth, demand will flow in and early buyers will benefit over late buyers.

    The market simply isn't that speculative since there are large frictions to getting money on, there isn't really a leveraged trading environment yet, and its simply in early stages of adoption where high growth rates are normal.

    Apr 8 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Market Not A Bubble And Still Highly Undervalued [View article]
    The price was even lower when I first submitted the article and I already updated it once. Sometimes articles come through slow on the weekend.

    Anyways if you click the image in the article it takes you to a real time interactive bitcoin graph.
    Apr 8 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Popular Bitcoin Myths For Goldbugs [View article]
    It appears i misquoted the bitcoin creation rate. The actual current rate is 25 bitcoin every 10 minutes.
    Apr 3 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Popular Bitcoin Myths For Goldbugs [View article]
    how are they going to shut down the OTC market?
    Apr 3 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Popular Bitcoin Myths For Goldbugs [View article]
    Great stuff. Very well done - Thanks for sharing.
    Apr 3 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Popular Bitcoin Myths For Goldbugs [View article]
    bitcoin have real value in providing a network. Silver isn't more money than gold because it has more industrial demand. In fact gold is more money-like than silver precisely because a larger share of its demand is monetary demand over industrial demand.

    Money is demanded not for its end use but for its ability to service transactions. We demand money to help us acquire something whose direct use we care about. Money services to enable the transaction by being widely accepted, easily divisible and durable, etc. Bitcoin does an excellent job at this, arguably better than gold and silver on some points.

    That said i'm still bullish on precious metals. I also agree with your sentiment on paper metals for physical.
    Apr 3 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Popular Bitcoin Myths For Goldbugs [View article]
    Legislation can't be enforced against bitcoin. Some bitcoin services can be targeted directly but the network itself is stored on every users machine. Without going door to door I do not see how they can stop bitcoin via legislation.
    Apr 3 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Popular Bitcoin Myths For Goldbugs [View article]
    Bitcoin does require the use of the internet and while this has apocalyptic disadvantages, there are present advantages this creates. Bitcoin are easier and cheaper to transact and store.

    Bitcoin cannot be shutdown by the monetary authorities at this point, short of shutting down the internet basically.

    As for proven store of value, bitcoin does not have thousands of years of history behind it, but nonetheless will function very well as money. I think it's likely continue to steal market space from gold as it performs many of gold's tasks better while offering greater opportunity in these early days.

    Apr 3 12:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Popular Bitcoin Myths For Goldbugs [View article]
    definitely an error. You get the point though... :)
    Apr 2 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Incomes Fall $505.5 Billion, Expenses Rise - Can You Say Stagflation? [View article]
    Before I answer in more depth this is a crucial point you're making here. You are saying we live in a world where scarcity no longer exists?

    Can you please elaborate?
    Mar 4 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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