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Adam Scott  

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  • What Could Go Right In 2014 [View article]
    Not only is this is already being priced into the market, its negative impact is being overestimated.
    Jan 3, 2014. 01:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Case Of Benjamin Bernanke [View article]
    Why is it unsustainable? Because you say it is? Was it unsustainable when your father taught you to ride a bike using training wheels?
    Apr 25, 2013. 10:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Could Go Right In 2014 [View article]
    This is an interesting comment. One thing CAT has going for itself at the moment, though, is a relatively large short interest -- technically the stock looks poised to move a little higher, which could easily trigger some of those shorts to cover.
    Jan 3, 2014. 11:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Could Go Right In 2014 [View article]
    It's possible you'll never see CAT at $80 again. Right now it looks like BAC did at $5 -- current price discounts the absolute worst.
    Jan 3, 2014. 01:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ferrellgas Partners: Here's Why I'm Staying Long On This MLP And Its 8.13% Yield [View article]
    Digging deep is great, provided you aren't only looking for data to back up your own predetermined conclusion. Keubiko called FGP overvalued six months, and 25% ago -- since then their distributable cash flow has crept closer to 1x as they make immediately accretive acquisitions and refinance long-term debt. And as pass-through entities, MLPs almost all issue additional equity to fund initiatives, so the fact that more shares exist today than 18 years ago is nothing of note.

    My point is not that Keubiko isn't EVER helpful or insightful; but in this case, he isn't. His conclusions have cost, or lost, you money if you followed them.
    Nov 28, 2013. 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ferrellgas Partners: Here's Why I'm Staying Long On This MLP And Its 8.13% Yield [View article]
    Heather--don't be dissuaded by the negative comments above, with Keubiko's being the least insightful and helpful of all. While it's true that FGP's is not a particularly exciting story, sometimes those make the best stocks to own. A seasoned MLP investor understands the inherent tax benefits to the structure of their distributions. With the overwhelming majority of FGP's distributions coded as 'return of capital' and therefore tax-deferred, the taxable equivalent yield (TEY) is well into double digits for the highest marginal tax rate, and has been since inception. Not interested in income? Reinvest the dividends--your effective cost basis for shares bought in 1994 would be $3 today. Doesn't sound much like a bond to me....
    Nov 27, 2013. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MLPs And Interest Rates, How Right Is Mr. Gundlach? [View article]
    Hi Matt,

    Neither your #1 nor #2 most important points are, in fact, the most important point. The single most important point with regard to how attractive an MLP is, or MLPs are, is their after-tax yield.

    A great deal (60-100%) of an MLP's distributions are recorded as 'return of capital' and, as such, are tax-exempt. The remainder are taxed as ordinary income. If I'm a long-time municipal bond investor who has watched my risk- and tax-free interest income dwindle from 10+% all the way down to 2-3%, I'm suddenly very interested in the beneficial tax treatment the MLPs' distributions offer.

    Historically, yes, the comparison of MLP yields vs. 10-yr Treasuries has been a relevant factor in determining MLP valuations. I think it's more interesting to consider what could happen if just 5-10% of the trillion dollar municipal bond market shifted towards the space....

    Adam
    May 19, 2013. 07:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Rising Tide Lifts All Ships [View article]
    My guess is that there is a direct correlation between how high the market runs and how many people are swimming naked.....
    May 11, 2013. 12:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Case Of Benjamin Bernanke [View article]
    Thanks, Phil, I appreciate the feedback. And in particular the Super Grandmaster vs. Grandmaster comparison..... ;-)
    Apr 26, 2013. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Things That Could Continue To Go Right In 2013 [View article]
    Thanks for your comment, Rich. It's been an extremely painful 4-5 years, no doubt about it, but I agree with you that everyone should be encouraged by the signs of life we are now seeing across the board. As an investor, it certainly paid to get on that train several stops ago (before it was even considered a 'recovery')....
    Feb 13, 2013. 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow 14,000: 'Déjà Vu All Over Again'? [View article]
    Ha! I agree with you -- we raised no more than 20% cash so it's not a "sell everything!!" type deal. Just taking a few chips off the table in the hopes that we can re-deploy at more attractive entry points. I could very well be wrong...

    Thanks so much for the kind words, I look forward to "seeing" you again!
    Feb 10, 2013. 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow 14,000: 'Déjà Vu All Over Again'? [View article]
    I disagree with you, respectfully, that this is a "much worse economy." I don't think there is a single relevant data point or trend that looks worse to me today than five years ago. To what specifically are you referring?

    The only thing being kept alive by government spending at this point is the bond market. I would much prefer to own the SPY (not necessarily as a trade) than just about any fixed income instrument you can find today -- the yield (2.07) is still better than the 10-yr Treasury and the stock market gives you opportunities for both appreciation and income as companies increase their dividends over time with additional earnings per share.

    There is always a correction looming. The trick is to not be scared by that fact.
    Feb 10, 2013. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fear The Taper [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, huey35.... I don't know exactly which strategies the pension funds and insurance companies use, and I also don't know what will happen with rates -- but I do like to look for possibilities that aren't being discussed much. There may not be a precise way to measure the appetite for Treasuries (sans Fed) at various interest rates, but I can only imagine it would be parabolic. Meaning, there is most likely a limit as to how high, and how quickly, rates can really go here...
    Jan 17, 2014. 01:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Could Go Right In 2014 [View article]
    The CEO of CAT has been wrong more often than not the past few years, and as a result is under increased pressure to issue more conservative estimates/guidance. 2014 may not be great, still, but when things are great the price won't be nearly as good.
    Jan 3, 2014. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Could Go Right In 2014 [View article]
    Had CAT not over invested at the worst time its stock wouldn't be priced so favorably.
    Jan 3, 2014. 01:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
41 Comments
14 Likes