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Adam Sharp  

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  • Why E*Trade Is a Must Buy [View article]
    What about their massive debt? Gotta mention that in any buy-rec. And let's talk market-caps, not arbitrary share prices. Not convincing for me, but best of luck on the trade.
    Sep 23, 2009. 01:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the FHA a Bailout Waiting to Happen? [View article]
    Are you really saying the FHA is not taking tons of risk? That's a pretty tough argument to make. They insured 23% of the entire mortgage market in 2009. If you don't think that's a HUGE gamble, explain why.

    "There should be a minimum IQ level to be able to post."

    This says a lot about where you're coming from.

    On Sep 21 06:43 PM NickelMan wrote:

    > All you people bashing the FHA are clueless ignoramuses making things
    > up form little snippets of info you pull from here and there and
    > then you pretend to know what your talking about and then SA lets
    > you all comment on it. There should be a minimum IQ level to be able
    > to post. If there were 95% would not be heard here!
    > Clueless, clueless clueless !
    > Nick KrahS
    Sep 21, 2009. 08:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks vs. Gold: Who's Winning? [View article]
    Nice gld/gdx ratio chart. Interesting stuff.

    Gold miners are such a specialized field, I wouldn't trust a passive index. Need someone managing it who really knows the industry. EKWAX is a good actively-managed gold/precious-metals fund. Up 521% over the last 10 years.
    Sep 18, 2009. 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dent Tactical ETF Will Likely Have Trouble Gathering Assets [View article]
    "By the way, I am the first on record to predict Dow 1,000,000 (Dow One Million). In the July 1997 issue of my newsletter I stated that everyone had caught Dow prediction fever. My target date was 2050 (which will require an 11.9% average annual gain from here). I guess it's time to revise my forecast. Next time I'll be sure to use a date that's guaranteed to be long after I am dead so I won't hear them laughing at me at Seeking Alpha."

    I hereby one-up you, on the record. My prediction is Dow $1.96b in 2241. A soda will cost our great-great-great-gran... ~$765,000, but we will all be billionaires!
    Sep 18, 2009. 01:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recovery Was Too Expensive [View article]
    Too expensive, indeed. I read that the homebuyer tax-credit program wound up costing $43k per additional house bought (that would not have been otherwise).

    "We've achieved some very temporary economic growth amounting to perhaps $420 billion at the expense of $2,800 billion spent and another $8,000 billion committed."

    How does the temporary nature of these actions escape so many people? Mind boggling.
    Sep 17, 2009. 07:13 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don’t Blame Free Markets for the Crisis: They Never Existed [View article]
    Excellent points, Steve.

    On Sep 17 09:04 AM Steve in Greensboro wrote:

    > Thanks, Mr. Sharp, for a great article.
    > I think there is are two additional categories of non-free-market
    > structures imposed by the U.S government that merit inclusion in
    > your list: 1) retirement Ponzi schemes including Social Security
    > and Medicare and 2) redistributive taxation.
    > Briefly, the government Ponzi schemes create the illusion that the
    > individual does not need to provide for his own maintenance in retirement
    > which hammers the savings rate, reducing capital accumulation, wage
    > rates and general wealth of the U.S.
    > Redistributive taxation creates the illusion that the individual
    > can live at the expense of somebody else. Today, the top 5% of U.S.
    > earners pay 60% of the income taxes and the bottom 75% pay 13%.
    > Obama's healthcare program is another version of this. When men
    > don't have to work to support themselves, they won't.
    > Tocqueville hit the nail on the head: “The American Republic will
    > endure, until politicians realize they can bribe the people with
    > their own money."
    Sep 17, 2009. 03:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking the China Growth Myth [View article]
    Good points. But Chinese equities still seem vastly preferable to US ones, for the foreseeable future. Everyone is book-cooking these days. The US is relaxing accounting standards, bailing out on an unprecedented scale, and focusing on "operating earnings" to make P/E ratios palatable.

    China's cooking GDP #s, sure. But GDP is increasingly irrelevant as government spending makes up a larger and larger percentage of it, worldwide. GDP won't increase productivity when it's made up of military spending, social programs, etc. In the US or China.

    China's government may be spending beyond their means now, but at least they have the reserves to do so. We're just writing IOUs. Both markets will be manipulated and cooked, but I'm leaning eastwards for longs.
    Aug 26, 2009. 07:22 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Krugman's Debt-GDP Defense [View article]
    Excellent point Dave. Gonna go look into that now.

    On Aug 25 12:49 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:

    Deficits should be
    > compared against tax revenues. If a private person wants to borrow
    > money, his creditworthiness is based on his net income. Governments
    > should be no different. By any measure Uncle Sam is all but insolvent.
    Aug 25, 2009. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Didn't Caterpillar Say Things Were Improving? [View article]
    Are you saying m/m is better for a business like CAT? Why? Seems like their business is quite seasonal, so y/y makes sense.

    It's funny how bulls use 10-year operating S&P p/es when it suits their case, arguing that it provides a better picture. Then they jump up and down over tiny month/month housing improvements.

    On Aug 20 11:43 AM romorris wrote:

    > I'm trust caterpiller's management before I'd trust someone that
    > deliberately quotes y/y figures when he knows better.
    > They are straight shooters.
    Aug 20, 2009. 11:50 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ugly Personal Income Stats [View article]
    Agreed. Hard to say exactly how it will play out, but if you think we're going to pay back our loans in dollars that are worth more and not less than now, you're in for a nasty surprise.

    On Aug 19 08:44 AM The Geoffster wrote:

    > Deflation is untenable. It would lead to national default. The Fed
    > will launch a trillion helicopters and money will fall out of the
    > sky. I won't be hoarding what I catch.
    Aug 19, 2009. 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Colonial Bank Got the Old Yeller Treatment from FDIC [View article]
    should read "will get" the old yeller treatment. They tried to update the tenses since I posted before the official announcement, then updated.
    Aug 17, 2009. 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Are Imaginary [View article]
    Nice article Mr. Summers.

    I think anoter crucial unanswered question is this: If earnings are so great, why do banks need ever-increasing leverage to produce these mediocre operating earnings?

    Their own economists are terrified of deflation. If they actually believe in the deflation case, they should be rushing to pay off debt. Either they're too worried about their bonuses next quarter, or they know that soon inflation will benefit the highly leveraged.
    Aug 14, 2009. 08:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harry Markopolos Needs a Bigger Pulpit [View article]
    Good points whidbey. Guys like him and William Black will never get appointed to major power-positions. Simon Johnson might have a shot, but even he is probably too radical and logical.

    On Aug 13 06:02 PM whidbey wrote:

    > He is great, but there are truth-tellers everywhere and few of us
    > want to hear them.
    > They know bad things that no one wants to know.
    > The SEC pushed him away as an act of self preservation, if they had
    > admitted Bernie was a crook ugly questions about them would have
    > followed, may be liability to the parties.
    > Yelling that one has not done his job well is not admired. This
    > is a social problem for all societies: nay-Sayers are flies in the
    > ointment ,we want good news, promises and no bills for the service
    > thank you.
    Aug 14, 2009. 12:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash for Clunkers: What Can the Government Buy You Next? [View article]
    What can they buy next? Pensions, CRE crap, state budgetary shortfalls, insurance company liabilities, an overwhelmed FDIC, mortgage rewrites/haircuts, more auto bailouts, etc.

    If we ever cut military spending, expec huge handouts for big defense contractors too. Don't expect those incredibly powerful groups to stay quiet.
    Aug 1, 2009. 03:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why GDP Stats Are Still Ugly [View article]
    FB5000 sez: "ALL THE NUMBERS - ALL THE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING BETTER. It is a simple fact. The recession moderated drastically in Q2 and is now over.... The market is up. Recovery is here"

    Kudlow, is that you? Or Dennis? Either way, I will attempt brief re-education; Any numbers that are "trending better" are only doing so because of massive, unsustainable government intervention, along with accounting changes and earnings manipulation.

    The fundamental picture has gotten worse, if anything. The slight decrease in personal debts is far outweighed by the increase in public ones.

    We are headed for a major collapse. Might take a while, as more and more desperate and ineffective measures are tried to remedy the situation. But it'll end in either a deflationary depression or Argentina-style hyperinflation. I'm betting on Argentina, but Mr. Derringer, among others, thinks otherwise, so you'd be wise to consider that scenario as well. Apologies for any preachiness, I've had a beer or six.
    Aug 1, 2009. 02:21 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment