Lukoil: More Attractive Than Western Integrated Oil Companies? [View article]
Too much value though, exactly right. However recently I've also been looking at Gazprom Neft, and at current prices, it's extremely attractive IMO. It's trading at something like 1/2 of book and pays an 8% dividend. Somewhat obscene, certainly this sort of stuff rarely happens outside the MICEX.
Lukoil: More Attractive Than Western Integrated Oil Companies? [View article]
Hey Jimi
It's been a while since I've received comments on this article.
I really can't say anything to shale, I haven't done any research on the subject.
Yes Q1 was a bit of a miss...however I don't think the environment is unique to Lukoil. Many integrated oil majors (ie PTR, CVX etc) if you look at their results FY2012 vs FY 2011 they are equal or down, so this appears to be possibly because of crude prices, not sure, but this appears to be the environment for the industry as a whole.
Nonetheless the value is quite clearly there IMO.
PTR has been getting beaten down lately also, though it's not near the value of Lukoil.
Gazprom Neft, also, is interesting but that's another story.
Does Bruce Berkowitz's Sears Math Add Up? Do Your Own Diligence [View article]
It has nothing to do with law, it is merely accounting convention.
Your comments do not really address anything I've raised in the article. Instead you want people to merely "trust" Berkowitz. There's nothing wrong with that, but that's not the focus of the article. If all you want to do is trust other people, just buy Fairholme and be done with it.
Does Bruce Berkowitz's Sears Math Add Up? Do Your Own Diligence [View article]
Good stuff, very well put. I agree pretty much entirely with everything you've said.
I don't really want to get into a St Joe's discussion, because that's not the focus of the article, but in St Joe's you had in 2011 them taking a $300+ million impairment loss on the land after years of claiming that the book values of the land on the balance sheet UNDERstated true market value. And yes they've utterly failed to monetize any of these so-called "hidden asset values" as has been the case with Sears. Surprising number of similarities in the two investments.
Does Bruce Berkowitz's Sears Math Add Up? Do Your Own Diligence [View article]
Yes this is an interesting comment. Very well said.
Would you mind explaining how you arrived at the $500M to $1B number step by step...I followed most of that but toward the end it gets a bit difficult to follow.
Regardless, that $500m-$1B number is the sort of number that one would expect. I remember reading Sears' past reports of cash raised from property sales and inventory liquidations...while they like to say that closing stores generates cash because they liquidate inventory, etc., the number has almost always in the past been substantially lower than one would expect.
Also although this is not directly relevant, this is not the first time that someone has disagreed with Berkowitz's opinion on real estate values: case in point Einhorn's St. Joe (JOE) short presentation!
Does Bruce Berkowitz's Sears Math Add Up? Do Your Own Diligence [View article]
Hey you are completely free to criticize my article, as a reader that's your prerogative.
I don't know how much property tax records have to do with fair market value? Aren't property tax records based on cost, not FMV? Not sure.
Don't know why he couldn't append this research to his Sears case study found on Fairholme's website? Really I don't see who he would be hurting, certainly not himself if it would drum up interest in the stock and hence his fund.
Third, in the slide I excerpted from his presentation and put into this article, Berkowitz for some reason focuses exclusively on total square footage.
I have no doubt that he performed an exhaustive evaluation of the properties, but (1) why isn't this disclosed; (2) why isn't this mentioned anywhere in the presentation, instead opting for a simplistic total square footage valuation?
Does Bruce Berkowitz's Sears Math Add Up? Do Your Own Diligence [View article]
Thanks for the comment. I wrote this article in large part to present a somewhat controversial view and to invite debate, these are the sort of comments that help foster that debate.
Does Bruce Berkowitz's Sears Math Add Up? Do Your Own Diligence [View article]
Just to be clear, I have no position in Sears stock and therefore absolutely no vested interest; I am merely presenting the facts as I see them:
Current assets: $11.2B Real Estate value: UKNOWN Brand value: UNKNOWN Liabilities: $17.9 billion
If either Lampert or Berkowitz want people to make reasoned, well-informed decisions on the basis of available facts (not rumor, showmanship, etc.), they should do a better job of disclosing those facts.
Knightsbridge Tankers: Consider Adding This 12% Dividend Yield To Your Portfolio [View article]
Hi Doug
As far as I can tell, the stock price may have increased somewhat, however absent any meaningful news. This may be a case of a rising tide lifting all boats, as the S&P has increased in price during this time as well.
Lukoil: More Attractive Than Western Integrated Oil Companies? [View article]
Lukoil: More Attractive Than Western Integrated Oil Companies? [View article]
Lukoil: More Attractive Than Western Integrated Oil Companies? [View article]
Earnings were pretty good, at least relative to price paid, for me.
-Adam
Lukoil: More Attractive Than Western Integrated Oil Companies? [View article]
It's been a while since I've received comments on this article.
I really can't say anything to shale, I haven't done any research on the subject.
Yes Q1 was a bit of a miss...however I don't think the environment is unique to Lukoil. Many integrated oil majors (ie PTR, CVX etc) if you look at their results FY2012 vs FY 2011 they are equal or down, so this appears to be possibly because of crude prices, not sure, but this appears to be the environment for the industry as a whole.
Nonetheless the value is quite clearly there IMO.
PTR has been getting beaten down lately also, though it's not near the value of Lukoil.
Gazprom Neft, also, is interesting but that's another story.
StealthGas: Hungry For A Buyback [View article]
StealthGas: Hungry For A Buyback [View article]
Does Bruce Berkowitz's Sears Math Add Up? Do Your Own Diligence [View article]
Does Bruce Berkowitz's Sears Math Add Up? Do Your Own Diligence [View article]
Your comments do not really address anything I've raised in the article. Instead you want people to merely "trust" Berkowitz. There's nothing wrong with that, but that's not the focus of the article. If all you want to do is trust other people, just buy Fairholme and be done with it.
Does Bruce Berkowitz's Sears Math Add Up? Do Your Own Diligence [View article]
I don't really want to get into a St Joe's discussion, because that's not the focus of the article, but in St Joe's you had in 2011 them taking a $300+ million impairment loss on the land after years of claiming that the book values of the land on the balance sheet UNDERstated true market value. And yes they've utterly failed to monetize any of these so-called "hidden asset values" as has been the case with Sears. Surprising number of similarities in the two investments.
Does Bruce Berkowitz's Sears Math Add Up? Do Your Own Diligence [View article]
Would you mind explaining how you arrived at the $500M to $1B number step by step...I followed most of that but toward the end it gets a bit difficult to follow.
Regardless, that $500m-$1B number is the sort of number that one would expect. I remember reading Sears' past reports of cash raised from property sales and inventory liquidations...while they like to say that closing stores generates cash because they liquidate inventory, etc., the number has almost always in the past been substantially lower than one would expect.
Also although this is not directly relevant, this is not the first time that someone has disagreed with Berkowitz's opinion on real estate values: case in point Einhorn's St. Joe (JOE) short presentation!
Does Bruce Berkowitz's Sears Math Add Up? Do Your Own Diligence [View article]
I don't know how much property tax records have to do with fair market value? Aren't property tax records based on cost, not FMV? Not sure.
Don't know why he couldn't append this research to his Sears case study found on Fairholme's website? Really I don't see who he would be hurting, certainly not himself if it would drum up interest in the stock and hence his fund.
Third, in the slide I excerpted from his presentation and put into this article, Berkowitz for some reason focuses exclusively on total square footage.
I have no doubt that he performed an exhaustive evaluation of the properties, but (1) why isn't this disclosed; (2) why isn't this mentioned anywhere in the presentation, instead opting for a simplistic total square footage valuation?
Does Bruce Berkowitz's Sears Math Add Up? Do Your Own Diligence [View article]
Does Bruce Berkowitz's Sears Math Add Up? Do Your Own Diligence [View article]
Current assets: $11.2B
Real Estate value: UKNOWN
Brand value: UNKNOWN
Liabilities: $17.9 billion
If either Lampert or Berkowitz want people to make reasoned, well-informed decisions on the basis of available facts (not rumor, showmanship, etc.), they should do a better job of disclosing those facts.
Knightsbridge Tankers: Consider Adding This 12% Dividend Yield To Your Portfolio [View article]
As far as I can tell, the stock price may have increased somewhat, however absent any meaningful news. This may be a case of a rising tide lifting all boats, as the S&P has increased in price during this time as well.
Lukoil: More Attractive Than Western Integrated Oil Companies? [View article]