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Adib Motiwala

 
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  • Why Verizon Could Have 30% Upside In 12-18 Months [View article]
    Good to have you back Thomas. Missed your high quality well researched articles here. Ofcourse investors can take advantage of your research via the mutual fund you now manage.
    Aug 18 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall, Inc: An Attractive Out Of Favor Business [View article]
    Good work!

    A small error in this sentence " Coinstar currently operates at a loss and is expected to break even by 2015,"..it should be ecoATM

    Long OUTR
    Aug 13 10:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willdan Group: Top Line Growth And Margin Expansion Supports Recent Run-Up [View article]
    as they say, good things often happen to cheap stocks.
    Aug 11 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willdan Group: Top Line Growth And Margin Expansion Supports Recent Run-Up [View article]
    Good call Chris! I was too conservative.
    Aug 11 02:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hennessy Advisors Would Be A Perfect Addition To One Of Its Own Funds [View article]
    Good note. I think EV/AUM would probably be a better measure than P/AUM to account for the balance sheet differences across firms. eg. BEN has $8b net cash (25% of market cap) while HNNA has net debt...

    Agree with your assessment overall.
    Jul 23 06:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Stocks Always Have A Story: Outerwall [View article]
    I quite know that debt is not accounted in P/E ratio :)

    The authors comment was "And for all of that and more, Outerwall (OUTR)-- formerly Coinstar and the parent of the ubiquitous Redbox movie rental kiosks -- trades at a PE ratio less cash of less than nine."....

    And its fine if you want to calculate P/E ex cash to indicate cheapness due to net cash. However, in this case, there is significant net debt so I am not sure what the author was implying..

    In anyways, I am LONG OUTR.
    Jul 11 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Stocks Always Have A Story: Outerwall [View article]
    Yes 500 of them. But they are installing many more in Canada...
    Jun 3 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Stocks Always Have A Story: Outerwall [View article]
    I look at multiple valuation ratios from P/E, P/FCF, EV/EBIT and so on. The EV measures include the balance sheet so cash and debt is reflected. The Price ration do no reflect that. I commented because the article was subtracting cash to indicate P/E was even lower, which is inaccurate since the debt is 4x of cash. So actually P/E adjusted for cash and debt will be much higher. Anyways that exercise is not very valuable since E is understated for this co and FCF is the way to go. FCF > E here and hence, P/FCF or maybe EV/FCF makes more sense.
    Jun 2 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Stocks Always Have A Story: Outerwall [View article]
    I understand. However this company has significant net debt. You have to look at cash, ST investments, ST debt and LT Debt to determine net cash. In this case, if you actually add Net Debt, P/E will be higher.

    http://1.usa.gov/1mvCgNB

    Cash is $250m
    Debt is about $1b.

    So net debt is higher.

    That is the problem when you use any automated tool or non-SEC filings to determine
    numbers...

    These tools are good for a starting point. However you have to use original source numbers.
    May 29 12:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Stocks Always Have A Story: Outerwall [View article]
    Hi,

    Can you explain the statement " trades at a PE ratio less cash of less than nine."

    Did you mean ignoring debt. Coz if you add the debt the P/E rises much higher... or even if you use FCF which is a better measure...

    I am long OUTR.

    Adib
    May 29 02:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrett Business Services: Growing Pains Have Subsided Leaving Large Upside Potential [View article]
    Edward,

    Congrats on your success. Can you talk a bit more about the workers comp piece of the business. Is this a pure service biz or more of an insurance biz due to the outsized effect of that biz on cashflows.

    Thanks

    Adib
    May 22 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Children's Place: Could Ascena Retail Group Come Knocking Next Year? [View article]
    Superb. thanks for writing. Enjoyed reading it
    May 15 12:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Upcoming OIS's Spin-Off Of Civeo Corp. To Unlock Substantial Value [View article]
    Thanks for the article. A few issues

    1) the REIT conversion is not guaranteed. I think it makes sense to look at potential valuation without REIT conversion currently and then REIT would be best case scenario.
    What multiples would you apply if the accomodations biz is not a REIT?

    2) The valuation for new OIS ex accomodations seems Ok.

    3) At the end, you should adjust for about $550m in net debt. That would reduce stock price by ~10/share. I agree with salvatort here. In your valuation you used EBITDA multiples for the two biz. That gives you EV. And then you subtract net debt to arrive at Market cap and divide by share count.

    Without the REIT conversion, the upside is much smaller.
    May 11 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Spin-Off Knowles Is An Opportunity Worth Investigating [View article]
    What are some public comps and their P/E and EBITDA multiples? 11x seems a bit high to me... More like 9.5x - 10x in best case. Good thing with this idea is that its a 'self-help'. 50% of the increase in EBITDA comes from the plant closings etc that management pointed out. The rest comes from growth over the next 2 years. Now if there is a sell off, it could make it better.
    May 11 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ampco-Pittsburgh: Sporting A Low Valuation With Numerous Potential Catalysts, A Special Situation Is Taking Shape [View article]
    The high profit increase in 2013 for air and liquid processing segment in 2013 had a one time gain of $15m. If you exclude that, it falls down to $8-9m like in 2012. In that case do you still a huge discount to valuation ?
    May 10 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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