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  • Capital Product Partners: A 13% Yield Growing At 2-3% Annually [View article]
    The Q2 results of HMM are at and I leave you to make the calculations, focusing on current liabilities. They can't make operational profit when other lines took the opportunity of low bunker rates to show record results. Price war continues and in fact M2 has muscled in to recapture lost market share.

    After selling various other parts HMM is down to its shipping segments. They still need a restructuring; now, will this be additional equity from friendly state banks and chaebol sisters or something more drastic, I can't say - but I find the risk very high. In a killer move to my argument HMM is 30% up today in crashing markets so perhaps something was arranged already.
    Aug 24, 2015. 04:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capital Product Partners: A 13% Yield Growing At 2-3% Annually [View article]
    It is difficult for me to see how Hyundai Merchant will avoid restructuring this year. CPLP will be less affected than the cowboys at NMM but those five good charters are not safe. (Danaos - DAC - is also at high risk).

    Good writing, even if I have very set - negative - ideas about MLPs. Btw, there are 135 million total units, so book equity per unit is around current share price.
    Aug 23, 2015. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean: Complete Fleet Status As Of June 22 And Commentary [View article]
    Do we get to vote? There are many knowledgeable (and respectful) commenters in your articles but it is only realistic to believe that only assets, rather than whole companies, are attractive for any cash-rich buyer.

    More generally, banks and bondholders have a very bitter experience with zombie loans and losses in other shipping sectors over the last few years, and they may be inclined to take over the assets much faster this time around, while values are at least equal to outstanding loans.
    Jun 23, 2015. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TOP Ships: If Deep Discount Persists, Going-Private Is Likely [View article]
    On the numbers, the second MR had instalments paid of $8m at 31/12/2014 (F-15 of the 20-F) and a purchase price of $37m. This leaves $29m to pay - TOPS say they only had $20m remaining to pay. We'll see.

    You seem to rationalize the award of 10% of the company. Pistiolis used to pay $2m in annual "rent" for office space, so it is true that he has calmed down. Look out for a personal cash infusion or conversion of the Economou Delos receivable soon.
    Jun 21, 2015. 05:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TOP Ships: If Deep Discount Persists, Going-Private Is Likely [View article]
    Congratulations! CEO Pistiolis could only issue to himself 10% of the company this spring, the maximum possible before triggering the price adjustment mechanism in the warrants, so now you own 4.05% of the diluted stock.

    Top Ships has siphoned off hundreds of millions from the U.S. stock markets. They are so tainted no serious underwriter will touch them, resorting to penny stock promoters such as Aegis, for their current incarnation as a public issuer.

    Probably you know their history but for some reason feel safe.

    Anyway, as to your numbers, the logical net result of the sale and leaseback transaction is a $20m book loss (as the vessels are booked at $37-38m but sold at $29 ech) and a net cash (before working capital) of a maximum $8m. No wonder they haven't published Q1 yet! There remains a huge funding gap for any future delivery.

    Remaining listed with the ability to issue free shares is so valuable to any Pistiolis-type shipowner (hey, did I see George Economou's son in TOPS board?) that a going private transaction never makes sense.
    Jun 20, 2015. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling: What Makes It The Perfect Takeover Target [View article]
    Hi, this is not correct, you list the number of rigs operated by the oil companies. The correct statistics are rigs managed/owned - you will only see very few rigs owned by producers. A full list is here:

    Good article, I would add Maersk as an acquirer, possibly the only player than can afford a large acquisition and easy replacement of high yield debt. But it is better to pick assets only than close to bankrupt companies, such as Vantage and quite a few others if the environment persists.
    Jun 17, 2015. 07:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euronav: Well-Rounded And Attractively Priced Crude Tanker Owner [View article]
    I think the original article was at CNN:

    Excellent video of the TI Europe, a bit of a shame that CNN spends that type of money and can't get the charter rate right (it is $28,600/day right now but her charter renews in September so $40k+ is likely).

    Simply take the author's final table and add $80-100 million to cash flow and profits (under every rate environment), to see the earnings power of the company, which should also be looking for a Suezmax block acquisition soon.
    Jun 10, 2015. 05:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euronav: Well-Rounded And Attractively Priced Crude Tanker Owner [View article]
    Well JM, congratulations for putting in the effort and covering the only crude tanker company that due to its conservative management and accounting policies has not gone bankrupt or completely destroyed shareholder value over the last years - rather the opposite. Euronav continues to be the best play in the sector in any type of market.

    I'm not going to nitpick on your article. However, your "efficiency and cash flow potential" section is seriously flawed: you calculate revenues on TCE (what other companies report as "net revenue") but you include voyage expenses, which are part of gross revenue, as cash costs (by the way, this is the Suezmax fleet trading spot). These expenses are excluded. You inflate cash breakeven by at least $5000 per vessel per day - Q1 voyage revenues were>$20million. The analysis of all previous years suffers from the same flaw. In fact it is surprising that you talk about reduced bunker costs without realizing that they are never part of cash breakeven when you use TCEs.

    Please think about it and submit a correction - you have done a lot of work to let yourself down like this. You may even end up loving the result. Spread the word.
    Jun 3, 2015. 07:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euronav Is Heading In The Right Direction And Is Now A Cash Cow [View article]
    Well, it's at the end of the 10-page press release, together with balance sheet and p&l
    May 21, 2015. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euronav Is Heading In The Right Direction And Is Now A Cash Cow [View article]
    In fact the Q1 press release does contain a cash flow statement. There's a lot of noise with working capital and the joint ventures but I'd say the normalized quarterly operating cashflow after interest is more than $100m and will keep growing. Assuming rates hold, which is currently the case. Q2 seems as good as q1, and there are already fixtures at above $60k well into q3. Very promising.
    May 21, 2015. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StealthGas: Forget The Dividends, Buy The Dip In This Misunderstood LPG Shipping Company [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. First of all, the article doesn't discuss prospects for the LPG market. Unfortunately it is too complicated for anyone, or at least for me, to provide a real assessment of the impact of oil pricing on the economy, let alone any link to gas or LPG. Cheap oil is good for the consumer, bad for the banks and investment. Demand growth for oil and derivatives is steady, even if not the one wished for.

    The article makes the point that returns in the small pressurized LPG shipping market are low and will probably remain low through 2015. This has not been a secret and is confirmed in fact by H. Vafias in the Q4 conference call and a recent article in Lloyds List: Other segments in LPG enjoy spectacular returns for the moment.

    Stealthgas is a conservatively run, low cost and low-gearing company, able to withstand a sustained depressed market, using also the oil tanker fleet for liquidity. They have been scrapping older LPG vessels already and the market should rebalance in 2016. The levels reached this year ($5.50) were an excellent entry point (re-entry for me). A buyback programme seems to sustain the stock above $6 but the liquidity is very low. I would be cautious at current levels and rather wait for the 2015 Q1 results to get a better price.
    Apr 17, 2015. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capital Product Partners LP: A Dividend Investor's Dream (>10% Yield) At A Deep Value Price [View article]
    To Darren McCammon, as unfortunately the author is really nowhere near the ballpark.

    There is no "convoluted incorporation". Most, if not all, shipping companies incorporated outside the U.S. are not subject to income tax in their place of incorporation. At most, they are subject to a token tonnage tax. CPLP is a nothing more than a synthetic shipping MLP like many others.

    Depreciation is a real expense by the way. Depreciation in an industry doesn't change because you call yourself an MLP. There is simply a high-yield market to be exploited.

    CPLP is run smarter than most, recently structuring their acquisitions at below market value to create headroom. Doesn't cost the sponsor entity nothing, as the vehicle is gold to them. Still, lots of units to feed.

    Good luck
    Apr 8, 2015. 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The NYFEX Report: Dryships Sells Its Suezmax And Aframax Fleets [View article]
    "What prompted such stunning reversal is anyone's guess, particularly since the transaction is between related-parties".

    Let me guess that Tankships could not be sold even to the gullible U.S. market. Management fees of >$2000 per vessel per day, plus 1.25% on revenue for commercial management plus another 1.25% on revenue for charter sourcing, and the dynamic duo of gorgeous George and nephew Tony at the helm - combined value destructed/shifted to private interest in excess of 1B. DRYS shareholders start from a bottom but putting fresh money at IPO valuations in a George venture is simply crazy.
    Apr 1, 2015. 12:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Farstad Shipping - My Pick In The Offshore Sector Carnage [View instapost]
    Thanks for reading this post, instanton. It's good to see Farstad picking some commercial talent - they will need all the long-term contracts they can get.

    Unfortunately I don't have much to add. Q4 was a loss due to some small impairments and a large exchange rate impact on the company's debt. 2015 will be "challenging" to say the least, across the industry. But I will hold, for the reasons stated in the post above.
    Mar 15, 2015. 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Navios Maritime Partners L.P Announces Acquisition of an Option to Acquire One 13,100 TEU Container Vessel With 12 Years of Employment [View article]
    Feb 26, 2015. 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment