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  • Navios Partners: Strong Management And Fleet At 20% Discount [View article]
    You should read the filings. The Aldebaran and Prosperity are owned by Japanese interests. The were under long-term charters to NM, which dropped them down to NMM, after first having secured very lucrative charter-outs.

    The two charter-ins now cost NMM, on average, about 13,500 per day per vessel, per their disclosure. Once the Prosperity charter-out expired last May, the vessel was chartered by NM for 12,000+profit share (i.e. NMM is losing some 1,500 per day only). NM in employs the vessel in the short-term time charter trade, at a loss of 4,000-5,000 (for NM). It is also NM that is losing money on the Apollon, Libra, and shortly on the Aldebaran, Hope etc.

    This is simply a detail in your article, but it sort of jumps out from the page.

    Many other people have commented on the shipping sector downturn, much earlier and eloquently than me. I'm more interested in governance. The Navios group has taken some great strategic decisions, in particular insuring the charter-outs and playing the capital markets. But their spin is intolerable.
    Feb 25, 2013. 06:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safe Bulkers' CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I wasn't ironic: I do think SB has the best operational management and best attributes in its listed sector. I also recognize the mistakes they made, in particular maintaining a very high dividend.

    Settling with the Japanese and picking some good vessels from them is simply strengthening a good relationship. They will continue getting 80% Exim financing for their newbuildings and run a lean business.

    I don't know about doubling, but I'm doing very fine after buying at the lows.
    Feb 24, 2013. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navios Partners: Strong Management And Fleet At 20% Discount [View article]
    Only the distribution/ROC supports the price. And only secondaries, NM eating costs, taking over vessels at above market rates and the fake MLP-tag support the distributions.

    JM, you did a lot of good research only to fumble at the goal line with your conclusions (and title).

    In the short-term, once the lucrative Aldebaran charter ends, the vessel will be chartered by NM at above-market levels but still well below the previous rate. The same will happen with the 1997-built Felicity in June and the Hope in August, making a total of 6 vessels subsidized by NM, with more to come in 2014. Perhaps NM will drop down one of the two remaining capesizes that haven't defaulted yet and NMM will also buy a vessel at the current low values. A secondary comes in Q3 or Q4 of 2013.
    Feb 24, 2013. 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navios Partners: Strong Management And Fleet At 20% Discount [View article]
    I don't want to be harsh, but after so many articles you've written on this sector you don't seem to get it, as the Enron guy would say.

    The charter-in section needs redrafting. It is NM that charters the Prosperity from NMM, making then a loss of $4k+, not the other way round. NM also charters the Apollon and the Libra from NMM, both at a loss, will charter the next expiring vessels and also currently supports NMM by paying part of its opex. (by the way, NMM is alos making a loss on the Prosperity, and will loose money on the next charter of the Aldebaran: the bemused NMM investor relations people must surely have directed you to their press release saying that the Prosperity and the Aldebaran are chartered-in at an average of 13,500 per day-and why would you care who the owner is?)

    NMM is hugely overvalued by any metrics, raising money at 14% to pay back debt and distributions. NM is naturally interested in keeping it afloat and will continue to sink money in.

    But Stanislav in his articles, and i, have underestimated the thirst of the u.s. investors to buy into a yield, regardless if it is a ponzu like NAT or a ROC model like NMM.
    Feb 23, 2013. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AerCap Holdings' CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results- Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Gus Kelly, the CEO, has the consultants' tendency to use the interlocutor's first name as many time as possible - more obvious in older transcripts. He must be on the road ten months out of twelve in conferences selling the stock.

    But finally AER is in an upwards trajectory and the analysts seem to like them. The market less so but it is one stock that seems able to gain another 30% by end-2013 in a flat general market.
    Feb 21, 2013. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safe Bulkers' CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Well, EPS will go down, the dividend should have been fully cut two quarters ago and all money should have been kept in the company. But operationally, yes the best management out there.

    With a history of working together with their Japanese charterers (some years back SB paid compensation to release below-market charters, now the opposite), they now buy vessels from those same charterers at very slightly above market value.

    The transcript should be cleaned up, the CEO is very interesting when talking about his trade.
    Feb 21, 2013. 06:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Navios Acquisition: Unwinding The Spin [View article]
    Well, what NNA did not advertise in its Q4 press release is its covenant breaches. However, today's capital raise http://bit.ly/YFnlEG shows that the banks are very careful and demand fresh equity.

    NNA simply did not have the cash to pay the (increased) equity for its newbuildings, interest, maintain $40m cash and acceptable leverage (they don't pay management fees/opex anyway).

    The question is whether $100m raised is enough. Yes and no. NNA will now raise its dividend in order to boost the share price and do another secondary in which NM can convert the intercompany debts and sell down.
    Feb 21, 2013. 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Be Wary Of InterOil [View article]
    I think that's a logical conclusion. Coupled with "no bids value the company fairly so we raise a bit of cash and go at it alone for another couple of years". The recent positive articles seem written by the same PR firm. To be honest, I don't think your article is particularly well written either, that's why you get so many personal attacks.

    I have no position but I'm interested in corporate governance and how capital markets can be abused can so I've been following a bit the various IOC articles.
    Feb 16, 2013. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Societe Generale Ever Be Relevant Again? [View article]
    Very good article. The cash dividend cut, strong/tradiotional shareholder base and French establishment and central bank support are also relevant factors. I also had turbo warrants base 14 bought when GLE was at 16 eur during the summer in a very profitable trade.

    I agree that any further upside will be linked to the perception that the "crisis" is over. I also think that the comment above as to the politically-driven GLE investments abroad is spot-on.

    A very similar article can be written for ING. Euro insurance companies hit by sovereign debt concerns - ageas, aegon, allianz - were also good investments.
    Jan 12, 2013. 05:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Navios Acquisition: Unwinding The Spin [View article]
    Due to related parties cont'd, as at:
    - Q1 2012: $55.3m
    - Q2 2012: $71.0m
    - Q3 2012: $79.9m +$30m loan = 2xannual operating cashflow.

    The disconnect between recent product tanker rates and NNA's share price could be attributed to the certainty of covenant breaches under all credit facilities as the leverage test (not the one shown in the presentations) is reaching 95-100% (no equity).

    Waivers will be granted, perhaps at a price. It is more than logical for NM to convert the intercompany loan and receivables into equity to give NNA some breathing room.

    In the meantime, Scorpio has started conference calls that sound more than fireside chats (one hour or more of Q&A). It has now a cult following among basically all analysts and PE shops who can't wait to gobble up successive secondaries which are seen not as dilutive but as votes of confidence - even if the product tanker sector supply is increasing precipitously once more.
    Dec 15, 2012. 06:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safe Bulkers: Would Low Valuation Lead To A Management Buyout? [View article]
    Hi Lambros - I'd like to add that you should add another $384m i.e. the 2007 dividend to the Hajioannou pre-IPO/IPO cashpile - so a total of $740m - the company had negative equity when it IPOed. This and the hefty dividend means that there was no point in skimming the company through inflated management fees, travel agencies and other bizarre transactions.

    I think one capesize is chartered to Eastern Power, a Tata subsidiary (see F-1) and the other may be to Arcelor Mittal (based on client list and various conference calls where they spoke about capes chartered to Indians).

    I don't see a buyout. A listed vehicle is the goose laying the golden eggs. If the cycle turns, a listed company with good assets can raise fresh money all the time and pay dividend to the major shareholder. If the cycle stays really low there will be better opportunities to recapitalize the company and retain control at lower prices - and the banks will always welcome an equity line to finance debt repayment. Angelicoussis may wish he were listed right now.

    The decision to cut the dividend, even if late and even if not the cut was not a total one, shows that they want to stay in the market. Besides the Koulitsa, I think they bought a second vessel from client K-line, the Freia. I fully agree with your last paragraph even if not with the last sentence.
    Dec 15, 2012. 06:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • North Atlantic Drilling: Cheapest Offshore Driller With A Huge 9% Yield [View article]
    I think you can find the filings at http://1.usa.gov/UCthwx

    Personally I dislike the company model with high leverage and capex commitments AND high or full dividend payout because it means that a series of secondary offerings are coming. On the other hand history shows that jumping in early into a Fredriksen scheme in a sweetspot sector can be very rewarding.

    For more long-term investments both Rowan and Maersk are expanding into high-end deepwater, anchored on their Norwegian jack-up presence - dominance. Both have lower finance costs and/or better capital structure (Maersk Drilling is of course part of a conglomerate and financed centrally) than NADL and investors seeking exposure to the high-barrier Norwegian market+deepwater can take a look also at them.
    Dec 12, 2012. 06:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Talking Soda [View article]
    To be honest, I was surprised to read about a "water bar" - never seen it in a number of households in the Benelux, UK, Germany or France. Southern Europe (except northern Italy) doesn't even drink carbonated water in the first place. Now, purifying water has caught on in a number of countries - Brita is a well-known brand.

    Perhaps this is a corroboration to your thesis that there are many markets unexplored but I am known to be averse to kitchen-top gadgets and the Aqua Bar looks very bulky so I'm not the right person to ask.
    Nov 29, 2012. 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. - Why The Equity Is Worthless, Part II [View article]
    The stock had been a traders dream: long and short within a very wide range. I am not a trader myself but it is true that I had a number of positions from time to time, eventually with a net loss, not because I thought the company was well-run but because I thought the banks would chicken out.

    I thought I was contributing to your calculations but you are choosing a different way to argue, which is quite distasteful. It is true that I don't know when you initiated your position but it is reasonable to assume that it was fairly recently. Most people that shorted in the 20s don't write articles about a penny stock. In my view your response is haughty and verging on the hypocritical: "commenters to disclose positions?" Geddatahere.
    Nov 29, 2012. 07:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talking Soda [View article]
    They were in litigation is Sweden against a company doing exactly that. I don't know if SODA received a final judgment yet.

    Like many homes in Western/Northern Europe we do have a Sodastream (in fact for some three years now) but only for carbonating tap water - I don't drink sodas as in soft drinks. I recommend it to everyone - you should get one Jeremy. Would I bother getting a new machine? No. Would I bother getting a cheaper cylinder? Probably yes, even if the $16 euro equivalent is comparatively very cheap anyway compared to bottled source (or not) carbonated water.
    Nov 29, 2012. 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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