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Afam Edozie

 
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  • If Oil Has Life, Afren Has Potential [View article]
    Last week's bribery catalysed sell off and today's pull-back seem to be a good entry opportunity, for a company that has potential to double production over the next five years.
    Aug 5 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Muddy Waters NQ Mobile Report Card [View article]
    Seeking Alpha is a blogging site. Your going in assumption should be that every article is biased. There is not even an attempt at editorial control, many of the bloggers are anonymous. (I would go further to say that all information you receive whether published, printed or verbal is purely beliefs and opinions and is probably biased either consciously or subconsciously).

    Toro declared their interest on the site when they posted their articles, they did their due diligence to the best of their ability and they put their money and the money of their clients behind their analysis.

    We don't determine outcomes either in investing or in life. We can only follow good process and do our best. All investors will be wrong from time to time, the only defence I have is my stop loss.

    The stop loss is even a defence against being right (after all the stock market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent).

    Even though I believe the Toro story, I was stopped out of NQ months ago (with my limited loss). That said, today (3 July) looks very much like the final panic sale from the public (two out of three times, massive volume after a prolonged downturn signals a reversal is close). I would be expecting to see a bottom within 5 to 7 days followed by a buying signal.
    Jul 4 04:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hidden Side Of Sovaldi's Untapped Markets: Gilead's Rise Is Certain [View article]
    Good article.
    Jul 3 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Price-Sensitive Are Amazon.com's Customers? A Tale Of Two Tablets [View article]
    Good article.

    Fact is that amazon has always been a discounter and never a premium brand. The original Fire tablet was launched on the basis of lower pricing (achievable by amazon's low margins compared to Apple and other people who are trying to make money this year).

    The fire phone will do well once it is selling at a discount to an equally speced samsung, sony, moto and HTC. I just can not see any comparision between the Fire phone and an equally priced Sony Z2.

    What surprised me about the article was the graphic and the fact that fuji film were doing so well. Refreshingly analogue in a sea of digital products
    Jun 23 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zacks' Bull Of The Day: BitAuto Holdings [View article]
    Better watchout, Zacks have changed their rating to sell.

    In addition, revenue and earnings growth appear to be decelerating.

    No position.
    Jun 3 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Two-Decade Deflationary Spiral Is About To End [View article]
    I wouldn't go as far as calling the end of the world. After all debts don't need to be paid and certainty they don't need to be paid in the currency (value) in which they were borrowed (and as for US dollar denominated sovereign debt it is unlikely that most of it will be).

    However, that does not mean that debt is not a problem that can and will reduce the living standards of many. Like anyone who is over leveraged, everything still feels fine as long as their is still access to further credit (i.e. their are still willing lenders). School fees get paid, gas bills are covered, interest payments are made. Then what appears to be all of a sudden, credit dries up, sovereign interest rates spike and there is talk of crisis.

    History is resplendent with once great societies that were wounded by debt. The crisis is only the final and inevitable consequence of political failure to align expenditure with income. And it is only a crisis - not an end to the world - which results in hard decisions being forced on a debtor (by markets or creditors) and a redistribution of wealth within the debtor entity.

    It is not an end to any world, as those in Greece, Cyprus and Iceland will testify.
    Apr 27 11:32 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Two-Decade Deflationary Spiral Is About To End [View article]
    Sounds like a long time to wait to do a carry trade.
    Apr 27 11:14 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yandex Post The Crimea Crisis [View article]
    PE is 20.5 based on 12 month trailing earnings (up to march 2014).

    TTM EPS is RUS41.80 (=$1.17) (RUS 1 = USD 0.028)

    Revenue growth has been 40%, 37%, 36% over the past 3 quarters (current quarter last)

    Price to earnings growth (PEG) is 0.55 on a historic look back basis (TTM PE, TTM growth).

    A PEG of 1.0 would probably be appropriate at prevailing Russian interest rates of 7.5% and probably 1.2 to 1.3 if interest rates should fall back to 5.5%.

    Of course a PEG of 1.6 to 1.8 would be a useful target in that many growth companies top out around there (which I perceive to be over valuation).
    Apr 26 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yandex Post The Crimea Crisis [View article]
    Looks like Yandex found a bottom at 21.70. I've made a small buy at 23.20 on the way up. There's still at 30 to 40% chance there will be more selling tomorrow.

    Last time I picked the bottom it was 28 and I got in at 29 and got stopped out.

    I still think that Yandex will recover to 45 and breakout of 45 at some point this year. I hope that I don't get stopped out again.
    Apr 25 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Did You Expect GOOG To Trade At A PE Of 10?' And Other 'Smart Beta' And Factor Investing Questions [View article]
    It will be interesting to see over time what premium investors are prepared to pay for the right to vote.
    Apr 23 10:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yandex Post The Crimea Crisis [View article]
    I have no expectations about the whether the price will go to $20 or not. The future is not only unknown, it is unknowable.

    I would agree that there is support at the $25 to $26 level. But also the market does not like uncertainty, and the spectre of war, sanctions and energy embargoes tend to create more emotional selling than rationale buying. In addition, unless this week marks a turning point, the general market is in decline, if the correction continues then those (stocks) that are most uncertain will get hit the most.

    If it comes down to $20 I will be happy (emotional) and try to pick a bottom with a tight stop. If it doesn't then I will buy on the way up (because the probability of a rising market continuing to rise is higher than the probability of a falling market turning around to start rising. I won't get the bottom, but I'm all right with that, that is not my aim, my aim is to buy when the odds of it going up are very high and the amount that I will lose before I realise that I am wrong is very low.
    Apr 16 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yandex Post The Crimea Crisis [View article]
    The market can stay irrational for longer than I can stay solvent. But if you have a good position sizing strategy, such that you will be around for the time the stock bounces back, you will do OK.

    I was stopped out with a 4.5% loss on my position. I may try again when the stock hits $20 (if it does), or given that the stock is worth over $40, buy up on the way from $27 to $32.

    You can never tell how low a great company can go.
    Apr 15 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yandex Post The Crimea Crisis [View article]
    I hear you.

    The future is not only unknown, it is unknowable.

    Yandex derives a majority of its revenue from Russia. Significant currency depreciation, exchange controls or financial sanctions or any number of other risks could impair the value of Yandex common stock.

    Facts are that Yandex is a high quality company, it is growing fast, likely to continue to grow fast and is now undervalued.

    Yandex has been experiencing significant distribution since 20th February. However, it has been under accumulation since wed 26 March. Though only 3 days, I think this throws the odds considerably in favour of buyers.

    However, failure to hold $28 price would be indicative of further weakness and the next level of support is $25 (i.e. another 11% drop). I wouldn't want to participate in this (particularly given that YNDX is now 20% of my equity). Prefer to take my 6% loss and watch to see what the big holders do next.

    Every investment is in reality a bet. The odds of it moving up from here, outweigh the odds of it moving down, but it is certainly no slam dunk.
    Mar 29 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yandex Post The Crimea Crisis [View article]
    Just put an all in bet (well 20% of portfolio) in Yandex.

    Bar the currency risk (it is a US dollar denominated stock whose revenue and earnings are in Rubles), I like it (that said I have set a stop loss).
    Mar 28 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iRobot: A One-Product Consumer Electronics Company Misperceived As Riding A Robotics Trend [View article]
    Facts, figures and opinions.

    Facts
    iRobot is the leader in household cleaning robots.
    The market continues to grow at a double digit rate
    iRobot has strong patent protection in the largest market (USA)

    Figures
    iRobot grew revenues 25% in its last reported quarter, this is the biggest increase in both percentage and actual revenues over the past 8 quarters.
    Gross margin also increased for the quarter

    Opinions
    iRobots poor strategy of raising prices rather than following a two pronged strategy of creating a mass market (i.e. lower cost models) whilst maintaining a premium market (i.e. higher cost, higher feature models),
    a. leaves the company vulnerable to competition (like Apple who adopted this strategy first on Mac and then on iPhone/iPad and in both cases lost market leadership, which eventually impacted margins - at least on Mac, iPhone is still playing out. And
    b. will cause the market to peak earlier and at a lower market penetration

    Does this make iRobot a short opportunity? At 25 times forward earnings, I doubt it very much, unless you are a short term technical trader looking to exploit a 5% to 10% pull-back (in which case you will have little interest in the fundamentals which will take several quarters to play out).
    Mar 12 03:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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