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Afam Edozie

 
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  • BlackBerry: It Is Hip To Be Square [View article]
    Nice . . . but

    'doesn't matter, they're dead'
    Oct 13 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: It Is Hip To Be Square [View article]
    Share prices tend to be lagging indicators
    Oct 13 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Am A Dividend Growth Investor. I Want Dividends, Growth, And Dividend Growth [View article]
    For most of my life I didn't believe I was gambling and certainly didn't play casino games.

    However, late in life, it was brought to my attention that most of the more successful business people and investors (read Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, Getty, Carnegie, etc.) are strong card players. And that success in investing (and business) is as much about understanding how to manage risk as it is about trying to pick the best stocks/investments.

    You described in your article your 'system' of stock investing, which if you implement it fairly rigorously then it gives you a positive edge (I haven't tested it and I'm taking your word for it and it does make sense to me as well).

    How much you make off your system will now depend on how much you 'bet' on each company. Of course how much you 'should' bet is determined by a specific mathematical relationship Kelly's Criterion, which is borrowed directly from casino gambling (risk of ruin).

    It may surprise you that investing is more similar to gambling than many investor realise and that learning the principles of successful gambling makes you an immensely better investor. I have no doubt that Warren Buffet would not be as successful as he has been if he were not such a good poker and bridge player.
    Sep 28 05:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zacks' Bear Of The Day: Copa [View article]
    A metaphor about catching falling daggers comes to mind.
    Sep 26 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Am A Dividend Growth Investor. I Want Dividends, Growth, And Dividend Growth [View article]
    Yes, this is what I said, the outcome on any individual stock investment cannot be known in advance or to a high level of certainty.

    The outcome of an investment into 20 stocks that are selected based on the same characteristics can be known to a high probability.

    This is why it is very difficult for investors to succeed if they do not take a systematic approach. It is like the casino operator, who has a 5% edge in the game of roulette. You cannot tell the outcome of any spin, but if you make enough bets you can know (as a Casino operator) that you will capture 5% of the amount bet on the table.

    Your stockbroker will happily spin for you between 9.30am and 4pm, for a small commission, you must have a positive expectancy system if you want casino like profits and no system if you want to be the punter.
    Sep 25 06:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Am A Dividend Growth Investor. I Want Dividends, Growth, And Dividend Growth [View article]
    Buying stocks is more science than art. You can never know the outcome of any single individual stock investment, but by following a systematic approach you can tell within 95% probability what the result will be over the long term, from buying a basket of stocks that have the same quality, growth and valuation characteristics.
    Sep 24 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Criteo: A Technology ADR Destined For Success [View article]
    Its all noise. CRTO is a volatile stock and will likely trade between 28 and 40 depending on rumours and market sentiment, until there is new information that will take it over 50 or lack or back down to 25. My bet is that it will go up to 60
    Sep 16 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Criteo: A Technology ADR Destined For Success [View article]
    With any high growth company such as Criteo, you should focus more on forward earnings (and of course whether or not it can beat it). Its forward PE is 41 and it grew its revenues by 60% in the June quarter and its earnings of 4 cents compare to negative 12 cents in the same period year ago.

    The companies guidance issued 5 August is for similar growth in the September quarter.

    As far as growth companies are compared Criteo is undervalued by up to 50% (a PEG of 1.0 would be fair).

    On the negative side, the company is investing heavily in expanding its sales and marketing capability, if this does not result in even more growth, then it will begin to struggle to meet earnings growth by Q3 2015.

    I see Criteo as a good bet (good quality, good growth, good price)
    Sep 9 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Oil Has Life, Afren Has Potential [View article]
    Last week's bribery catalysed sell off and today's pull-back seem to be a good entry opportunity, for a company that has potential to double production over the next five years.
    Aug 5 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Muddy Waters NQ Mobile Report Card [View article]
    Seeking Alpha is a blogging site. Your going in assumption should be that every article is biased. There is not even an attempt at editorial control, many of the bloggers are anonymous. (I would go further to say that all information you receive whether published, printed or verbal is purely beliefs and opinions and is probably biased either consciously or subconsciously).

    Toro declared their interest on the site when they posted their articles, they did their due diligence to the best of their ability and they put their money and the money of their clients behind their analysis.

    We don't determine outcomes either in investing or in life. We can only follow good process and do our best. All investors will be wrong from time to time, the only defence I have is my stop loss.

    The stop loss is even a defence against being right (after all the stock market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent).

    Even though I believe the Toro story, I was stopped out of NQ months ago (with my limited loss). That said, today (3 July) looks very much like the final panic sale from the public (two out of three times, massive volume after a prolonged downturn signals a reversal is close). I would be expecting to see a bottom within 5 to 7 days followed by a buying signal.
    Jul 4 04:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hidden Side Of Sovaldi's Untapped Markets: Gilead's Rise Is Certain [View article]
    Good article.
    Jul 3 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Price-Sensitive Are Amazon.com's Customers? A Tale Of Two Tablets [View article]
    Good article.

    Fact is that amazon has always been a discounter and never a premium brand. The original Fire tablet was launched on the basis of lower pricing (achievable by amazon's low margins compared to Apple and other people who are trying to make money this year).

    The fire phone will do well once it is selling at a discount to an equally speced samsung, sony, moto and HTC. I just can not see any comparision between the Fire phone and an equally priced Sony Z2.

    What surprised me about the article was the graphic and the fact that fuji film were doing so well. Refreshingly analogue in a sea of digital products
    Jun 23 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zacks' Bull Of The Day: BitAuto Holdings [View article]
    Better watchout, Zacks have changed their rating to sell.

    In addition, revenue and earnings growth appear to be decelerating.

    No position.
    Jun 3 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Two-Decade Deflationary Spiral Is About To End [View article]
    I wouldn't go as far as calling the end of the world. After all debts don't need to be paid and certainty they don't need to be paid in the currency (value) in which they were borrowed (and as for US dollar denominated sovereign debt it is unlikely that most of it will be).

    However, that does not mean that debt is not a problem that can and will reduce the living standards of many. Like anyone who is over leveraged, everything still feels fine as long as their is still access to further credit (i.e. their are still willing lenders). School fees get paid, gas bills are covered, interest payments are made. Then what appears to be all of a sudden, credit dries up, sovereign interest rates spike and there is talk of crisis.

    History is resplendent with once great societies that were wounded by debt. The crisis is only the final and inevitable consequence of political failure to align expenditure with income. And it is only a crisis - not an end to the world - which results in hard decisions being forced on a debtor (by markets or creditors) and a redistribution of wealth within the debtor entity.

    It is not an end to any world, as those in Greece, Cyprus and Iceland will testify.
    Apr 27 11:32 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Two-Decade Deflationary Spiral Is About To End [View article]
    Sounds like a long time to wait to do a carry trade.
    Apr 27 11:14 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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