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Afam Edozie

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  • Apple's Huge Ecosystem Blunder [View article]
    I live in Lagos, Nigeria. I can buy a brand new fully functional android phone for under $100 from Techno, Huawei, or a number of other vendors. If I want to go up market I can buy a brand new Samsung bottom of the range (and probably not marketed in the US) for under $200.

    I can also buy any of these phones refurbished at less than half this price. Even in the refurb market Apple is in a weak position.

    James is 100% right, in giving up market share for high margins, they will end up losing both. This is consumer electronics, not rocket science. Samsung lean't this well as they took down Sony in the TV market.
    Sep 13 12:22 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YY: Do You Know What You Own? [View article]
    Thanks for posting this insightful article on YY. I bought some today because I liked the technical action over the past few days and I also like its financials.

    I don't speak or read Chinese and didn't really understand the company until I read your article, in a nut shell it sells soft porn, which is a category though very profitable I don't normally invest in for ethical reasons. So I will likely sell my position.

    From the point of view of the numbers, unless their is hard core fraud (excuse the pun) the investment case is compelling (unlike Facebook fatigue, people seldom get tired of titillation). And the numbers seem quite compelling.

    It has also posted positive and growing free cash flow in all of the past 3 quarters and 5 of the last six quarters. Cash in the bank has also grown faster than liabilities over the past 3 quarters. (you really need some serious cooking and off balance sheet vehicles to pull this off)

    YY has a trailing 12 month PE of 50 and a future (estimated) PE of 25. Given that it has grown EPS by more than 100% in recent quarters this seems quite reasonably priced.

    Growth speaks for itself on both the top line and the bottom line (+100% in the most recent quarter).

    Though I see the company in a poorer light, I am not convinced by the short thesis.
    Sep 5 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
    The haunting has already been visited in the form of the 2007/08 financial crisis and too big to fail. The London Whale is just a continuation of the saga of commercial bankers speculating with ordinary deposits. The balance of power has shifted in favour of bankers, protests such as occupy Wall Street do not have the long term financial and staying power to create a meaningful shift any time soon. The financial industry has spent over 60 years continuously investing time and money in order to gain the influence they currently have. It won't be lost in one crisis or over a few years of effort.
    Aug 27 07:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OmniVision: Over 50% Upside In A Year With Very Little Room To Fall [View article]
    Just looking at Omni for the first time. How would you account for its declining margins, low profitability (RoA of just 4%), and negative operating cash flow. And would you not say it is also a contributor to the share price decline.
    Aug 27 06:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New iPhones: Should You Buy The Rumor And Sell The News? [View article]
    Please :-)
    Aug 20 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Q2 2013 Earnings Recap [View article]
    I owned this company back in 2011. Got stopped out during the decline, didn't make much since I hadn't owned it that long.

    The high short interest will most likely reflect the weakness in free cash flow. The argument being if they are that good 'where's the money'.

    I'm still considering a purchase.
    Aug 13 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor: Near The Tipping Point [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Very informative.

    I just bought QCOR this morning (after the gap up), I like the outlook, as well as the financials and growth.

    Why in your opinion is it trading at such a relatively low price. Other biotechs with similar performance are 50% to 100% more expensive?
    Jul 31 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada's Top Undiscovered Investor [View article]
    Be careful following supposed followers of Buffet. Buffet made most of his outsize returns as an arbitrage and value trader. Buying and holding high quality undervalued companies came later in life (with a lower overall percentage return), the asset size problem was probably one of the (little discussed) reasons for this.
    Jul 26 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada's Top Undiscovered Investor [View article]
    Warren Buffet was doing 50% per annum when he was managing small stakes through his partnerships including Buffet Partnership.

    In terms of comparing manager performance one needs to look at assets being deployed and downside volatility in addition to overall return.
    Jul 26 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why My Guru Strategies Think ZAGG Is A Big-Time Buy [View article]
    Good article. I initiated a long position last week, with a stop somewhat below 5.00. Purely on valuation and technicals.

    However I'm not as confident as you are about the long term prospects for ZAGG.

    1. It has no competitive advantage
    2. Even before last quarter topline growth was slowing on an absolute basis as well as a percentage basis
    3. And margins have also been declining year on year

    A return to some type of growth next quarter will likely put the price back around 10. But my sense is that Zaggs best days are behind her.
    Jul 2 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proto Labs: A 3-D Horror Show Not Worth The Price Of Admission [View article]
    Good article. I don't know if your right or wrong. PRLB is now north of $66.50, even if you are right it would be difficult to have held onto your short position.

    Facts are that revenues are growing, earnings are growing and free cash flow is growing. And unless you address the reason for this the short case will be weak.

    I haven't done a DCF (I was just prospecting), but with a PEG of 1.3 and forward PEG of 1.7 (based on analyst estimated future earnings growth), unless the current correction is the beginning of a bear market, it will be difficult for the stock to go down much.

    I don't like it as a buy (I like to see PEGs below 1.2) but I don't fancy it as a short until I see the growth numbers going backwards.
    Jun 27 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Ebix Really Worth? [View article]
    Even though I find EBIX attractive at this price and think you will do well. I wouldn't let good sentiment distort reality.

    Unfortunately justice does not exist in these (or any) markets. Most of the smart short sellers are already covering on EBIX and will make their money out of the marginal investors who don't fully understand the companies they own and are easily scared out of their positions at the wrong price.

    The markets are designed to take money from the weak hands and give it to the strong ones, whether they are primarily on the short side or the long side, the market doesn't really mind.
    Jun 27 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why EBIX Is A Double In The Next 3-6 Months [View instapost]
    I was in EBIX 2010 and 2011, made some money but gave half of it back, somehow dropped off my radar.

    I plan to buy once the price stabilises (no point trying to catch a falling knife no matter how good the fundamental case).
    Jun 21 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Ebix Really Worth? [View article]
    I will be a buyer once the stock settles down. Looks like a good bet. Lets see how this investigation pans out.
    Jun 20 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roadrunner Transportation Systems: Further Upside Ahead [View article]
    I've been looking at Road Runner this evening as a possible long. But have my doubts.

    Technically it looks good, but

    fundamentally i) it is a roll up and most of its balance sheet is goodwill, ii) debt is high once you consider that all of the shareholder equity is goodwill, iii) organic growth is just 8% and slowing, iv) value is not compelling (I value it at about $30 based on 12% discount rate, 15% top line growth per annum over next 5 years, and an expansion of margins by about 4% from 31% current to 35% over the next five years. And operational costs growing at around the same level as over the past few quarters).

    Though animal instincts might take it higher, it does not appear to be fundamentally attractive at his price.
    Jun 9 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment