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Afam Edozie

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  • SodaStream Q2 2013 Earnings Recap [View article]
    I owned this company back in 2011. Got stopped out during the decline, didn't make much since I hadn't owned it that long.

    The high short interest will most likely reflect the weakness in free cash flow. The argument being if they are that good 'where's the money'.

    I'm still considering a purchase.
    Aug 13, 2013. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor: Near The Tipping Point [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Very informative.

    I just bought QCOR this morning (after the gap up), I like the outlook, as well as the financials and growth.

    Why in your opinion is it trading at such a relatively low price. Other biotechs with similar performance are 50% to 100% more expensive?
    Jul 31, 2013. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada's Top Undiscovered Investor [View article]
    Be careful following supposed followers of Buffet. Buffet made most of his outsize returns as an arbitrage and value trader. Buying and holding high quality undervalued companies came later in life (with a lower overall percentage return), the asset size problem was probably one of the (little discussed) reasons for this.
    Jul 26, 2013. 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada's Top Undiscovered Investor [View article]
    Warren Buffet was doing 50% per annum when he was managing small stakes through his partnerships including Buffet Partnership.

    In terms of comparing manager performance one needs to look at assets being deployed and downside volatility in addition to overall return.
    Jul 26, 2013. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why My Guru Strategies Think ZAGG Is A Big-Time Buy [View article]
    Good article. I initiated a long position last week, with a stop somewhat below 5.00. Purely on valuation and technicals.

    However I'm not as confident as you are about the long term prospects for ZAGG.

    1. It has no competitive advantage
    2. Even before last quarter topline growth was slowing on an absolute basis as well as a percentage basis
    3. And margins have also been declining year on year

    A return to some type of growth next quarter will likely put the price back around 10. But my sense is that Zaggs best days are behind her.
    Jul 2, 2013. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proto Labs: A 3-D Horror Show Not Worth The Price Of Admission [View article]
    Good article. I don't know if your right or wrong. PRLB is now north of $66.50, even if you are right it would be difficult to have held onto your short position.

    Facts are that revenues are growing, earnings are growing and free cash flow is growing. And unless you address the reason for this the short case will be weak.

    I haven't done a DCF (I was just prospecting), but with a PEG of 1.3 and forward PEG of 1.7 (based on analyst estimated future earnings growth), unless the current correction is the beginning of a bear market, it will be difficult for the stock to go down much.

    I don't like it as a buy (I like to see PEGs below 1.2) but I don't fancy it as a short until I see the growth numbers going backwards.
    Jun 27, 2013. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Ebix Really Worth? [View article]
    Even though I find EBIX attractive at this price and think you will do well. I wouldn't let good sentiment distort reality.

    Unfortunately justice does not exist in these (or any) markets. Most of the smart short sellers are already covering on EBIX and will make their money out of the marginal investors who don't fully understand the companies they own and are easily scared out of their positions at the wrong price.

    The markets are designed to take money from the weak hands and give it to the strong ones, whether they are primarily on the short side or the long side, the market doesn't really mind.
    Jun 27, 2013. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why EBIX Is A Double In The Next 3-6 Months [View instapost]
    I was in EBIX 2010 and 2011, made some money but gave half of it back, somehow dropped off my radar.

    I plan to buy once the price stabilises (no point trying to catch a falling knife no matter how good the fundamental case).
    Jun 21, 2013. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Is Ebix Really Worth? [View article]
    I will be a buyer once the stock settles down. Looks like a good bet. Lets see how this investigation pans out.
    Jun 20, 2013. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roadrunner Transportation Systems: Further Upside Ahead [View article]
    I've been looking at Road Runner this evening as a possible long. But have my doubts.

    Technically it looks good, but

    fundamentally i) it is a roll up and most of its balance sheet is goodwill, ii) debt is high once you consider that all of the shareholder equity is goodwill, iii) organic growth is just 8% and slowing, iv) value is not compelling (I value it at about $30 based on 12% discount rate, 15% top line growth per annum over next 5 years, and an expansion of margins by about 4% from 31% current to 35% over the next five years. And operational costs growing at around the same level as over the past few quarters).

    Though animal instincts might take it higher, it does not appear to be fundamentally attractive at his price.
    Jun 9, 2013. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday: Resist The Urge To Short This Stock [View article]
    Most investors have difficulty valuing extreme high growth/pre profit companies. The critical factor is not the growth, but how long is the growth runway.

    Add to that the recency bias and momentum effect it becomes even more difficult to forecast the future price.

    Most successful short sellers succeed by using technical analysis to support their fundamental theories about value and prices.

    WDAY is now showing technical weakness but is far from dead.
    Jun 3, 2013. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Chanos Is Shorting Seagate, Should You? [View article]
    At the end of the day you can look too closely at the detail. The 20% that drives 80% of its valuation is the direction of PC sales going forward.

    If your right or wrong on that then everything else is irrelevant. And fact is for now, no one knows, whether we are seeing a lengthening of the upgrade cycle as a result of competing form factors or a permanent reversal in the absolute usage of PCs. Steve Balmer doesn't know, Michael Dell doesn't know (though of course they are preparing for every likely scenario).

    Call me when STX breaks below $38 and then shows weakness, then it will be time to short. In this business it is better to be late than to be early. Even thought they can both kill you.
    May 30, 2013. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iRobot: Good Prospects For The Price To Double [View article]
    Difficult to value the military business (not really sure it has a competitive advantage their, can't tell how demand will grow, though the Brazil order is great).

    Consumer business did not do as well as expected over past couple of quarters and i reduced my valuation of that to about $32 to $34.

    Price is at fair value + military business. I've had a good double. Taking the easy profits off the table is the way for me.

    There are a lot of other beauties trading below value. I love low risk high reward opportunities. BIDU is my new darling
    May 25, 2013. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iRobot: Good Prospects For The Price To Double [View article]
    Sold half my IRBT at $34 last week. Lets see how it goes from here.
    May 21, 2013. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TTM Technologies Will Benefit As Global Electronics Industry Recovers [View article]
    I think this bottomed around $6.50. At $8.00 seems to now represent excellent value. Should be trading at 1 x sales or 2 x book ($12 to $14) within 3 to 4 months. Will go long today or tomorrow.
    May 16, 2013. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment