Seeking Alpha

Afanti Arbitrage

View as an RSS Feed
View Afanti Arbitrage's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • So, Ya Wanna Buy Thisus Or Ya Wanna Buy Thatun? [View instapost]
    Indeed great short ideas frequently start out as long ideas, but then the analyst discovers the hidden problems/risks behind the facade.
    Feb 2, 2014. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Everyday Arbitrage Forum [View instapost]
    I believe the Howard Marks version of the $10 bill story ends with the someone picking up the $10 and having a beer.

    On a related note, at a local grocery store you can buy $100 gift cards for an excellent microbrewery/restaurant at a price of $80. (similar to the scenario mentioned by drew111 above). Since the gift cards are treated like cash, you can combine it with other deals, and I've never paid more than 72% of the price for anything at this restaurant. (Its also interesting that this restaurant has been having financial troubles in spite of generally being busy most nights, was was recently delisted from NASDAQ, and could probably be a prime target for a PE group looking to run it more efficiently and perhaps eliminate discounting- but thats a different matter).

    A lot of quality restaurants offer discounted gift cards at various times during the year. Nothing too exciting, but if you're going to eat out anyways, why pay full price, when you can enjoy a delicious meal at a delicious discount?
    Jan 19, 2014. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lazy/efficient Blogger Seeking Help [View instapost]

    Good "curator" of direct links to HK regulatory filings(and also provides independent commentary). Truth is stranger than fiction, and it can lead to exploitable opportunities...
    Dec 10, 2013. 06:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSP Holdings Will Reward Longs Soon [View article]
    Does the need to get a waiver for the public company covenant from Bangkok Bank(which loaned to its subsidiary) impact these odds at all? There's probably a way to work around it. In any case thanks for bringing this deal back on my radar.
    Nov 26, 2013. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Corporate Event Indicators And A Eulogy For Apollo-Cooper [View instapost]
    Those four indicators can be used to make a pretty good checklist for future risk arb situations. As Charlie Munger said: “All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I won't go there.”
    Oct 15, 2013. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "90's Retrograde" Merger Arb With Rue21 [View article]
    There have also been some interesting deep value opportunities in the retail fashion space recently. Many of these deep value plays will likely evolve into more merger arb situations when PE groups come looking for buyout/turnaround investments. This deal provides a good reference point, even though the management is probably better than average.

    Of course the demand drivers for the fashion industry are so bizarre to me, that I always need a larger margin of safety, similar to that in far away "emerging" markets. And the phrase "90's retrograde " just makes me feel old...
    Sep 9, 2013. 10:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) [View instapost]
    I'm still trying to develop an estimate for the odds of Starboard's campaign succeeding(or "failing" in a way that still leads to a higher bid). The current deal price does seem a bit low. Frankly it would be great if more over-hyped regulatory/congressional concerns would widen the spread, and allow an investor to enter with a larger margin of safety...
    Aug 30, 2013. 12:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Value Investing When Debt Levels Are High [View article]
    Excellent points. For cyclical companies, a lot key metrics are highly deceptive if not normalized. Its always good to look a back at a couple down cycles.
    Aug 24, 2013. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Do You Find Pricing Failures? [View instapost]
    I um know a landlord in a college town that offers fully furnished rooms at great prices. They do furniture ”shopping“ at the end of each semester when top quality furniture is left on the street-corners by students who don't want to bother moving it or posting it on Craigslist. One exception is a luxury antique bookshelf purchased on the last day of a foreclosure garage sale for 5$.
    Aug 14, 2013. 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Labor And Lucidity [View instapost]
    What Teddy Roosevelt said can be applied to competitors in the markets as well as those in sports:
    "It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat. "
    Aug 5, 2013. 10:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Dive: Surplus Capital Revisited [View article]
    Great broad sweeping article. Seeing a reference to "The Great Transformation“ on Seeking Alpha made my morning.
    Jul 23, 2013. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil (IOC) Produces [View instapost]
    The juxtaposition between Cumulative Press Releases and Cumulative Proven Reserves is classic.
    May 17, 2013. 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Emperor's New Clothes [View article]
    I also look for predictable business models that generate cash beyond what is necessary to reinvest in the business. Dividends are certainly preferable to unjustified executive perks, or bad acquisitions. However, I'm also wary of businesses that sacrifice market share tomorrow(after executives have already cashed out) in order to appeal to yield hungry investors today. Verifying that management is making productive use of owner's cash is always a major challenge.
    May 7, 2013. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Emperor's New Clothes [View article]
    My point was to include a quick list of businesses for further review. High yielding"conservative" investments, whether they pay dividends or distributions, could be riskier than usual in this current environment, and need to be double checked for valuation and sustainability . Even MLPs can experience drops in price and reductions in cash distributions when business conditions decline.
    May 7, 2013. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Emperor's New Clothes [View article]
    Yes, MLPs could be considered separately since distributable cash flow will often be more than net income. However, no structure is immune from declines in value or reductions in cash distributions. Its worth looking at them to see if any are headed into the MLP danger zone.
    May 6, 2013. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment