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  • Finding the Most Undervalued Stocks [View article]
    Hi toobad41,

    This article was meant to identify what sectors and styles are most undervalued. We will have a follow up article and highlight several companies that look undervalued and fit our default BUY criteria:

    Value Scores > 50( valueexpectations.com/... )

    Economic Margin Change> 50 ( www.valueexpectations.... )

    Thanks,
    VE
    Mar 11 10:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Current Expectations vs. Its 52-Week High [View article]
    Hi Hedged In,

    Thank you for your feedback. We try to be consistent with our posts and typically use a three year or five year EBITDA Margin, same with asset turns. Our institutional product allows you to adjust any line item in your proforma year by year to calculate an intrinsic value.

    I read your profile and it seems you are a professional investor, so I would be more than happy to offer you a temporary username and password. If you visit our blog: valueexpectations.com you will notice a section on the left hand side where you could click for a trial account. Once you contact us, I can fill you in with more details.

    Take care!
    VE



    On Mar 09 05:42 PM Hedged In wrote:

    > Good analysis -- thank you. (Is the tool available anywhere on the
    > internet?)
    >
    > Most of the comments seemed to miss the point that you were just
    > solving for future growth based on current stock price, taking other
    > variables as fixed.
    >
    > However, taking EBITDA as fixed is highly risky. Apple's margins
    > are probably at an all time high as Windows weakness allows Apple
    > to charge a premium for its computers and the iPhone is the only
    > show in town.
    >
    > But over the next year, we'll see netbooks take serious market share
    > and drive down laptop pricing (and the OS will matter less as more
    > moves into the cloud), and Android phones will start to compete with
    > the iPhone.
    Mar 9 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Fortune's Most Admired Companies Also the Most Investment Worthy? [View article]
    Great observations on Apple! Yesterday we posted an article specifically on Apple, the reason it’s coming up as a sell on a default basis is because we are comparing it to other technology company. Even though it looks much more attractively priced and has much lower expectations than it used to have, there are other tech companies (in the tech sector) that look more attractive from a valuation level. Further analysis could be done braking it down by market cap. Here is a link to yesterdays Apple post:

    www.valueexpectations....

    Also as a point of reference, keep in mind that the average company in the S&P has -9% implied sales growth over the next five years which indicates that there could be some better opportunities in the tech sector.

    www.valueexpectations....

    Thanks,
    VE



    On Mar 06 07:06 AM Zoltan L. Kovacs wrote:

    > Apple is mainly building its business on human creativity. Now it
    > can choose among the best brains on earth. Now just put it in your
    > expactations framework. Then look into your rearview mirror and see
    > what an economic performer Apple has been for the last ten years.
    > Finally take a look at the present P/E, cash flow potential and cash
    > reserves of AAPL and crunch the numbers.
    Mar 6 08:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Implying Negative Sales Growth for Next 5 Years [View article]

    Sales are just one value driver we are using. The implied sales growth is actually holding EBITDA Margins and Asset turns constant over the next five years. We are actually calculating Economic Profit (Economic Margin)

    Here is a link for a more detailed look at the calculation
    www.valueexpectations....
    As far as GM, we also wrote a piece on GM which you could find on Seeking Alpha. Again, we are measuring Economic Profits for GM which you can examine in this article:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    In the article you will notice the issue with GM is not actually sales, but EBITDA “GM would have to deliver and maintain EBITDA Margins not seen since 1994.”
    Thank you for your feedback we will be posting more detailed overviews on our Economic Margin framework.
    VE



    On Mar 05 10:24 AM Paul&Shark Yachting wrote:

    > it makes sense, but sales have no connection to stock price, I can
    > show you priced stocks with negative assets, and stocks were revenues
    > grow and sales are booming, but stocks are 95% down.
    Mar 5 10:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Implying Negative Sales Growth for Next 5 Years [View article]

    Sales are just one value driver we are using. The implied sales growth is actually holding EBITDA Margins and Asset urns constant over the next five years. We are actually calculating Economic Profit (Economic Margin)

    Here is a link for a more detailed look at the calculation
    www.valueexpectations....
    As far as GM, we also wrote a piece on GM which you could find on Seeking Alpha. Again, we are measuring Economic Profits for GM which you can examine in this article:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    In the article you will notice the issue with GM is not actually sales, but EBITDA “GM would have to deliver and maintain EBITDA Margins not seen since 1994.”
    Thank you for your feedback we will be posting more detailed overviews on our Economic Margin framework.
    VE



    On Mar 05 10:08 AM Trish1 wrote:

    > I thought the market trades on earnings... GM has huge sales... But
    > may be I need to get with the program...It's all about sales now...
    Mar 5 10:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Value Investing: Five Most Searched Stocks [View article]

    Jeremy F,

    Sales Growth is only one of the value drivers we displayed for simplicity in this article, there are many other factors that we take into consideration to measure true economic profits such as:

    Capital Structure
    Asset Age
    Asset Life
    Asset Mix
    Off Balance Sheet Assets and Liabilities
    Additional Investments needed for Earnings
    Cost of Capital

    In the upcoming days, we will publish a piece that discuses our process Value Expectations process in more detail.

    In the meantime, here is an introduction to our Basic Valuation Concepts:

    www.valueexpectations....

    Thank you for your feedback.
    VE

    On Feb 11 09:10 AM Jeremy F wrote:

    > To add to what Jason says, how can WMT fit the criteria you are looking
    > for when if they continue with their median growth they will only
    > beat by 6.5% while AAPL would beat by 15%. Yes WMT has higher sales,
    > but at what profit margins?
    >
    > This is the problem with only looking at one factor. Would it have
    > required that much more research to compare other fundamental traits
    > that are important to value investors? Sad that this passes the litmus
    > test for publishing on Seeking Alpha.
    Feb 11 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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