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  • Apple: A Great Company, Not Necessarily a Great Investment [View article]
    Thank you for all your feedback. Apple has a great management team because they figured out how to create shareholder value, which means they do a great job of generating economic profits (Positive Economic Margins).

    Here is a link to some articles which discuss this in further detail:

    www.valueexpectations....

    In the next few days we will be issuing several new articles addressing some of the other questions above.

    I do want to mention that our goal is to help readers identify better buying opportunities. We did write an article about Apple when we thought it was much more attractive at $91 on 03/05/2009:

    www.valueexpectations....

    Even though “the markets decide what a particular stock is worth - and not the Analysts and bloggers”, markets do have corrections and we want to make you aware what kind of expectations the market has priced in. Here is an article we posted when we thought CSCO had high expectations back on 2000:

    www.afgview.com/WriteU...

    Thanks,
    Value Expectations
    Jan 22 01:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ADR Overview - Which Stocks Look Good, Which Don't [View article]
    Regular followers have been exposed to the metrics and techniques used to identify our potential buy recommendations. We apologize for not adding a summary of some of our metrics that include economic performance, valuation, management quality, earnings quality for newer followers.

    Here is a link to an updated version of this article that contains those summaries:

    www.valueexpectations....
    Jun 25 12:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan: Our Investment Summary [View article]
    Here is a link to the rest of the report. Seeking Alpha must have missed it from the feed.

    Link to FCX report below:
    www.valueexpectations....


    VE
    May 27 08:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Implying Negative Sales Growth for Next 5 Years [View article]

    Sales are just one value driver we are using. The implied sales growth is actually holding EBITDA Margins and Asset turns constant over the next five years. We are actually calculating Economic Profit (Economic Margin)

    Here is a link for a more detailed look at the calculation
    www.valueexpectations....
    As far as GM, we also wrote a piece on GM which you could find on Seeking Alpha. Again, we are measuring Economic Profits for GM which you can examine in this article:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    In the article you will notice the issue with GM is not actually sales, but EBITDA “GM would have to deliver and maintain EBITDA Margins not seen since 1994.”
    Thank you for your feedback we will be posting more detailed overviews on our Economic Margin framework.
    VE



    On Mar 05 10:24 AM Paul&Shark Yachting wrote:

    > it makes sense, but sales have no connection to stock price, I can
    > show you priced stocks with negative assets, and stocks were revenues
    > grow and sales are booming, but stocks are 95% down.
    Mar 5 10:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings on Deck - Three Companies That Look the Best [View article]
    Thank you for your feedback.

    The Applied Finance Group is a global independent equity research firm with over 200 institutional firms as clients, which manage over $350 billion in equity assets. AFG is not an RIA so has no investments in any recommendation. We help clients with a long term investment discipline and not necessarily focused on day trading.

    Here is a link in case anyone is interested in our long term performance portfolio around the world:
    www.valueexpectations....

    Lastly here is an article on Apple when we thought it was much more attractively priced at $91 not $147:
    www.valueexpectations....

    If you would like to learn how we could better help your investment process, visit: EconomicMargin.com


    On Jul 30 02:19 PM Timeline Strategy Consulting wrote:

    > Just like I said. AAPL closed at $147.52 on the day when this article
    > was published. It's at about $164 today. That's a 10% gain in 3 weeks.
    >
    >
    > PFE and BSX are up much less than AAPL in this same period. AMD is
    > down.
    >
    > Back to the drawing board with your stock picking tools.
    Jul 30 05:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding the Most Undervalued Stocks [View article]
    Hi toobad41,

    This article was meant to identify what sectors and styles are most undervalued. We will have a follow up article and highlight several companies that look undervalued and fit our default BUY criteria:

    Value Scores > 50( valueexpectations.com/... )

    Economic Margin Change> 50 ( www.valueexpectations.... )

    Thanks,
    VE
    Mar 11 10:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Fortune's Most Admired Companies Also the Most Investment Worthy? [View article]
    Great observations on Apple! Yesterday we posted an article specifically on Apple, the reason it’s coming up as a sell on a default basis is because we are comparing it to other technology company. Even though it looks much more attractively priced and has much lower expectations than it used to have, there are other tech companies (in the tech sector) that look more attractive from a valuation level. Further analysis could be done braking it down by market cap. Here is a link to yesterdays Apple post:

    www.valueexpectations....

    Also as a point of reference, keep in mind that the average company in the S&P has -9% implied sales growth over the next five years which indicates that there could be some better opportunities in the tech sector.

    www.valueexpectations....

    Thanks,
    VE



    On Mar 06 07:06 AM Zoltan L. Kovacs wrote:

    > Apple is mainly building its business on human creativity. Now it
    > can choose among the best brains on earth. Now just put it in your
    > expactations framework. Then look into your rearview mirror and see
    > what an economic performer Apple has been for the last ten years.
    > Finally take a look at the present P/E, cash flow potential and cash
    > reserves of AAPL and crunch the numbers.
    Mar 6 08:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Implying Negative Sales Growth for Next 5 Years [View article]

    Sales are just one value driver we are using. The implied sales growth is actually holding EBITDA Margins and Asset urns constant over the next five years. We are actually calculating Economic Profit (Economic Margin)

    Here is a link for a more detailed look at the calculation
    www.valueexpectations....
    As far as GM, we also wrote a piece on GM which you could find on Seeking Alpha. Again, we are measuring Economic Profits for GM which you can examine in this article:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    In the article you will notice the issue with GM is not actually sales, but EBITDA “GM would have to deliver and maintain EBITDA Margins not seen since 1994.”
    Thank you for your feedback we will be posting more detailed overviews on our Economic Margin framework.
    VE



    On Mar 05 10:08 AM Trish1 wrote:

    > I thought the market trades on earnings... GM has huge sales... But
    > may be I need to get with the program...It's all about sales now...
    Mar 5 10:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Quality: An Important Indicator [View article]
    For those unfamiliar with “earnings quality” or other forms of forensic accounting which look at accruals, below are two interesting articles.

    WSJ: Accrual Investing' Advocate Seeks to Clear Away Bluster:

    online.wsj.com/article...

    Smart Money: Forensic Investing:
    www.smartmoney.com/inv.../
    Jun 26 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Buy, Sell or Hold? [View article]
    Hi Stephen Rosenman,

    I would like to clarify that our thesis does not rely on one variable.
    We are actually using our Economic Margin Framework which encompasses a valuation system that explicitly addresses the four main value drivers of enterprise value: profitability, competition, growth, and cost of capital.

    Below is a brief overview:
    valueexpectations.com/...

    For an in-depth overview, here is a white paper on our Economic Margin Frame:
    www.valueexpectations....

    We do appreciate your feedback and will do a better job of elaborating on our process.

    VE



    On Jun 20 02:17 PM Stephen Rosenman wrote:

    > Apple's share price does not depend on sales growth. Rather, its
    > price hinges on earnings. Nokia, for instance, increased its revenue
    > from $34 billion to $58 billion over the last 3 years. Unfortunately,
    > for Nokia, profit margins fell to 0.04%. Apple, in contrast, has
    > not only grown revenue but driven net profit margins to 14.7% (and
    > its iPhones which command greater margins have not yet been factored
    > in). The author's thesis looks at only one variable (and not the
    > key metric) to derive fair price.
    Jun 20 10:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Guru' Report Card: Grading the Picks of the Market's Biggest Names [View article]
    Suddy,

    Here is a link that goes into much detail and answer your question:
    www.economicmargin.com...

    There are also many other independent studies that have compared the frameworks:

    www.accountancysa.org....

    VE
    Dec 5 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Portfolio Performance Update [View article]
    TradingHelpDesk, Good questions.

    No, we do not meet with any management teams. We use our Management quality score to measure if the company is generating positive or negative Economic Margins. We don’t like to see them grow the business if they have negative economic margins, we would like to first see them shrink and fix the business first. If they have positive economic margins, we do like to see them grow.

    The only time we ever meet with management teams is for corporate consulting. We help corporations structure management compensations plans or to value acquisitions and divestitures.

    I do want to clarify something on our valuation system. Based on this comment on other questions you have asked about solving for sales growth. We are using our economic margin to measure historical economic profits, simply to see how well management runs its business, but our valuation system also uses Economic Margins. Basically we are forecasting Economic Margins in the future, our DCF Model with NO perpetuity; we assume that economic margins will decay over time to zero (we do this on a company specific basis). Once Economic Margins are zero then that means that the company is earrings its cost of capital, so growth is irrelevant. What we are doing next is discounting the future economic margins to come up with an intrinsic value.

    We will be writing more articles about how we calculate and use Economic Margin on our site that may not show up on Seeking Alpha. I encourage anyone that wants to read to register on our site (Value Expectations.com) to ensure they access the articles or receive via email:

    www.valueexpectations....

    Lastly, we are using publicly available information to build our models. But again, we are taking that data and making adjustments which leads to our development of Economic Margins.
    Thanks for all your feedback and Questions, hope this clarifies things.

    AFG
    Aug 14 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Portfolio Performance Update [View article]
    TradingHelpDesk, Good questions.

    No, we do not meet with any management teams. We use our Management quality score to measure if the company is generating positive or negative Economic Margins. We don’t like to see them grow the business if they have negative economic margins, we would like to first see them shrink and fix the business first. If they have positive economic margins, we do like to see them grow.

    The only time we ever meet with management teams is for corporate consulting. We help corporations structure management compensations plans or to value acquisitions and divestitures.

    I do want to clarify something on our valuation system. Based on this comment on other questions you have asked about solving for sales growth. We are using our economic margin to measure historical economic profits, simply to see how well management runs its business, but our valuation system also uses Economic Margins. Basically we are forecasting Economic Margins in the future, our DCF Model with NO perpetuity; we assume that economic margins will decay over time to zero (we do this on a company specific basis). Once Economic Margins are zero then that means that the company is earrings its cost of capital, so growth is irrelevant. What we are doing next is discounting the future economic margins to come up with an intrinsic value.

    We will be writing more articles about how we calculate and use Economic Margin on our site that may not show up on Seeking Alpha. I encourage anyone that wants to read to register on our site (Value Expectations.com) to ensure they access the articles or receive via email:

    www.valueexpectations....

    Lastly, we are using publicly available information to build our models. But again, we are taking that data and making adjustments which leads to our development of Economic Margins.
    Thanks for all your feedback and Questions, hope this clarifies things.

    AFG



    On Aug 14 04:29 AM TradingHelpDesk wrote:

    > Interesting that you combine 2 quantitative measures, economic margin
    > and the metric valuation system with a qualitative measure - the
    > effectiveness of management.
    >
    > It makes sense to me and I can see how you might outperform. One
    > thought / question; Do you guys meet management and ask questions
    > face to face or do you assess them using publicly available information?
    Aug 14 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Monthly Market Review for July [View article]
    Here is a link to our complete market review:

    www.valueexpectations....

    Seeking Alpha posted this before we emailed them a copy of the complete version.

    Thank you for your feedback!
    Aug 9 07:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Monthly Market Review for July [View article]
    Here is a link to our complete market review:

    www.valueexpectations....

    Seeking Alpha posted this before we emailed them a copy of the complete version.

    Thank you for your feedback!



    On Aug 09 04:17 AM TradingHelpDesk wrote:

    > You are right to mention the jobs data as being fundamental to sentiment
    > and risk appetite. Friday's better then expected 247,000 new claims
    > versus the 325,000 forecast is good news.
    >
    > Another couple of weeks of improving data and we may well see a continuation
    > of the equity run. Investors are looking for reasons to invest and
    > even the pessimists are slowly coming round - though I admit the
    > US still faces significant structural challenges not least government
    > debt.
    Aug 9 07:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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