"Data is the new science. Big data holds the answers." - Pat Gelsinger, EMC

Lt. Jenna D'Sora : Those times were really special... I wish we were back there now, you and I.
Lt. Cmdr. Data : The unidirectional nature of the time continuum makes that an unlikely possibility.

I have been following the Data Visualization space for the past four or five of months with a keen eye towards the Tableau (DATA) IPO. That day has finally arrived. Tableau priced its offering at $31 a share last night, which means this little business intelligence software company is going to raise $258 million and open trading at a minimum valuation north of $2 billion. Tableau generated revenue of $127 million last year so the stock is going to open trading at a 20x plus sales multiple. Now here is the interesting thing, Qlik (QLIK), maker of direct competing DV product

Alibaba's fourth quarter results are available in Yahoo's (YHOO) 10-Q, and they are, to say the least, quite impressive. Just take a look:

That's 80% year over year revenue growth and 172% net income growth. Simply put, this company is growing a lot faster than anyone could have imagined, and with that in mind Jack Ma's moves over the past year now make a lot more sense. In the last twelve months, he managed to get Yahoo to sell 18% of the group back to him for $7.1 billion and took Alibaba.com private. Doing the math, Yahoo parted with 18% of Alibaba Group at about

I can spot a top when I see one and this stock just peaked. I've been circling this name for a while and scratching my head at its valuation. This is because CVLT (CVLT) is a good old-fashioned enterprise software company and not some crazy, impossible to value SAAS name. It sells back-up/recovery focused data information management products into the enterprise space where it competes directly with the likes of Symantec's (SYMC) Netbackup and EMC's (EMC) Avamar. This is a very crowded space with all the usual suspects, and CommVault has been doing a great job over the last two years taking share. Now while I would like to get a lot more into detail this is an ACTIONABLE idea so getting this out in time is key as I believe the conference call just rang the bell. So I will give you an abridged thesis...

Short this

As I have speculated for the past six months, one of the big Chinese Internet three took a stake in Weibo. Those following the Sina (SINA) saga know it had to be either Baidu (BIDU) or Alibaba, and it seems Alibaba won out. That being said, the stock has still disappointed, and remains in my opinion one of the most attractive publicly traded (indirect of course) web assets on the planet relative to its present valuation. With Alibaba's investment being valued at $3.25 billion, Sina now has a negative enterprise value. Of course this doesn't mean you should go out and buy the stock, but if you think this through you do have to scratch your head a bit.

Sina management knows that a Weibo IPO will be a big hit, and according to some industry sources, all decisions being made are geared with that in mind. (Not that

"You won't kill me out of some misplaced sense of self-righteousness. And I won't kill you because you're just too much fun. I think you and I are destined to do this forever." Joker, Dark Knight

This is not an article about a great investment idea, but it is just one I had to write.

Earlier today, I contacted a couple different people I know regarding F5 Networks (FFIV) to toss around the idea of buying puts ahead of the upcoming quarterly earnings release. I had no intention of doing anything today as I am on a bit of a market break, but I had just come across a flurry of upgrades the day before that I just couldn't ignore. I had a small put position into F5's last earnings report under the assumption that it was getting close to a rerating and was worth the exposure. The position was

"There are no coincidences, Delia... only the illusion of coincidence. "-V, V for Vendetta

Lululemon (LULU) reports this week and while I have been passively recommending being short the stock for a few months, I believe the timing is now right for a significant re-rating in the share price. My rationale here is very similar to previous shorts on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Whole Foods (WFM), and to a lesser extent Ulta Salon Cosmetics (ULTA). But before I get into that I think a little comparison to current fashion flavor Michael Kors (KORS) would be worthwhile. As Lululemon's fiscal year ends in January, the ICR investor update pretty much allows us to confidently look at the past three years of performance going into earnings and then compare that to a snapshot of where Michael Kors fiscal 2013 should come in. (it is a late reporter too so

Here is my quick take on Whole Foods.

Undeniably Relatively Unattractive

As you can see Whole Foods' shares have underperformed pretty much anything you can think of as far comparables go since I last wrote about it. This has little to do with failed execution, and everything to do with the stock just being poorly priced. While I don't bother comparing Whole Foods to the other grocers when I try to get at a reasonable value for the stock, you can clearly see

"The little reed, bending to the force of the wind, soon stood upright again when the storm had passed over." - Aesop

Those of you who have followed my writings on Mellanox (MLNX) understand that hardware component tech stocks require a good deal of cycle timing. If you catch an upgrade cycle before it happens, you can do very well, but as that often requires a good deal of luck, most of my experience in the space comes from shorting these names when I think a cycle has peaked. This is because identifying such a stock once its share price has gone parabolic and the media and sell side have fallen in love with it is naturally a lot easier than digging it up before a cycle starts; ultra bullish analysts, momentum traders, and CNBC don't show up until something already has legs. But every now and then

"I subscribe to the law of contrary public opinion... If everyone thinks one thing, then I say, bet the other way..." Ricky Roma, Glengarry Glen Ross (1992)

I typically don't pay much attention to sell-side rating gyrations when I am evaluating a position. But every once in a while you come across an analyst call that catches your eye because the timing, nature of the note, and incentive to make such a move makes very little sense. Over the last week, Deckers (DECK) was hit by not just one but two of these notes. In both instances, the broker notes can be best described as attempt to get marginally bearish on a stock. And what I mean by that is you are basically publishing something that doesn't involve any material news, but that is a way of saying 'I am just a little bit more bearish on this stock.' Usually

Bud Fox: Why do you need to wreck this company?
Gordon Gekko: Because it's WRECKABLE, all right? I took another look at it and I changed my mind! - Wall Street (1987).

The MLM sector is not a place I'd usually be looking for long ideas. In fact, I'd know nothing about most of the listed names in the sector if I hadn't started scouting the space for short ideas after David Einhorn's Herbalife (HLF) conference call cameo. But there is no denying that the MLM bunch is an appealing sector for a short-seller because you are pretty much banking on generating returns by taking down some fast talking hustlers. As far as shorting goes, this is even more satisfying than catching a fraud, because for the most part, the people in this space have found a legitimate way to make money that they know is about nothing

"But again, truth be told, if you're looking for the guilty you need only look into a mirror. "- V, V for Vendetta (2005)

Anyone investing in a hot tech component play should pay very close attention to Mellanox (MLNX) as it has now officially become a perfect case study for the space. The first lesson here is that the street always gets these stocks completely wrong by building models and extrapolating price targets that are completely inconsistent with all empirical evidence regarding operating performance for companies like this. Consequently, the growth spurts in the space always lead to valuations that are way out of whack with long term potential, and completely disconnected from very serious short term demand volatility.

The second lesson is always be skeptical of a CEO who is out there talking ridiculousness about potential suitors when the stock has a $5 billion valuation who probably knows

As the Deckers (DECK) short squeeze has caught fire over the past few weeks, speculation has picked up with respect to who might potentially acquire the company. This all started with a Bloomberg article that focused mainly on VF Corp. (VFC), and has now morphed into Jim Cramer touting the idea as one of his 2013 top ten predictions. Amusing to say the least, but at this valuation you can obviously see the appeal to throwing oneself behind such a bold prediction. So, I am going to make my own bold Deckers prediction for 2013….

Labelux Will Buy Deckers

For those not familiar with the name, Labelux Group is a privately held Swiss based luxury goods group founded in 2007. The owners of the group are Joh A. Benckiser SE, a family holding company that is active across the consumer goods sector. They own privately held global

"Did perpetual happiness in the Garden of Eden maybe get so boring that eating the apple was justified?"

-Chuck Palahniuk

First, allow me to apologize for writing about something I just expressly stated I have no desire to hear about anymore because that is precisely what I am about to do.

Following the market on a regular basis can be quite an interesting experience. You learn about politics, innovation, fashion, the environment, corruption, greed, and most importantly all you will ever need to know about human behavior. Over time you get used to certain things like the utter celebration of up days and the raw and sheer panic that occurs if the market goes down for what seems like no more than half a second; this is normal behavior that you quickly become accustomed to. But what you never get used to is when the market becomes seemingly obsessed with

No more than a couple of days after publishing my article Baidu's Much Needed Sina Weibo Leap of Faith, rumors started to swirl that Ali Baba was set to make a direct investment in Weibo. While the rumors remain unconfirmed, the rather convenient nature of their timing is hard to ignore. Yes, when stocks fall 15% the day before such a rumor is leaked, I tend to get suspicious, and this is coming from someone who is long the stock. However, there was something about this rumor that made it even more fishy, and that was the fact that I actually listened to Sina's (SINA) conference call - a call which, out of the roughly thousand plus calls I have listened to over the past 14 or so years, struck me as particularly odd.

The reasoning behind this was the tone was more negative than it needed

Coming soon to a stock market near you…

Spend enough time short-selling and you will get pretty good at spotting short squeeze candidates. The problem with this is that when you are short, it can often be very challenging to switch sides because you have usually adopted quite a negative view of the company in question. But if you can detach yourself from this view, there is good money to be made leveraging your knowledge in a stock you have been shorting playing a violent squeeze rally.

In fact, if you exclude options activity, a great short squeeze almost always offers a better percentage return opportunity than patiently shorting a stock. Right now, I am sniffing out such an opportunity emerging in Deckers (DECK) shares.

Decked by Deckers

I'll admit, as a short-seller, I have not had many good experiences with Deckers. Now, you might be wondering how that is

"The best defense is a strong offense."

For the first time in a long-time things don't look too rosy for Baidu (BIDU). This is kind of hard to imagine considering the way things have gone for the Chinese search giant over the past few years. Thanks to Google (GOOG) throwing in the towel and a perfectly executed customer transition to the Phoenix Nest platform, Baidu shareholders have had little to do but sit back and watch money roll in.

Over the span of just two years management quadrupled revenues and nearly quintupled profits which in turn generated a 15 fold increase in the share price. Nothing could go wrong. Baidu was the perfect stock, a search monopoly in the middle of a growth boom in the world's fastest growing major economy.

But nothing lasts forever, especially on the internet, and over the past six months Baidu shareholders have started to

"Wisely, and slow. They stumble that run fast."- William Shakespeare

I have recently opened a short position in Ulta Salon (ULTA). The logic behind this trade is not that complicated. On a top-down level, Ulta falls within a category of stocks, namely hot momentum retail, whose time to become market underperformers has finally arrived. And from a bottom-up view the company's shares are both absolutely and relatively expensive, key metrics look to be starting to taper off or reverse after a period of multi-year outperformance, and the store count is starting to reach what looks like an intermediate saturation point. Consequently, I expect the stock to fall 25% from its recent highs.

A Momo Retail Correction

Lululemon (LULU), Under Armour (UA), Whole Foods (WFM), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Ulta, Michael Kors (KORS), and Coach (COH) are all perfect examples of stocks that fit into the same category. They are hot

LinkedIn (LNKD) reported Q3 results last night beating on both the bottom and top line and guiding in line with consensus for Q4. The headlines are pretty much more of the same, with those in love with the stock citing this as further evidence that LinkedIn has a 'great' business model, and is consequently a no-brainer buy.

Now, I am not going to bother with the nonsense of getting into how ludicrous these people often sound as plenty of fantastic businesses are often matched with stock prices that produce returns that would make you think you just invested in a failing business model; I've done all I can on that front. What I want to focus on today is how LinkedIn's Q3 results confirmed my previous suspicion that its growth rate is starting to really taper off.

As I discussed in my last piece, when it comes to

"Technology is not evolving anymore, technology is evolution."

Over the past month or two, there have been a couple interesting bearish pieces written on Mellanox (MLNX) that have caught my attention and got me to dig a little deeper into the story. (I'd been keeping an eye on name ever since it jumped 50% in one day on a significant beat and raise.) Because of my accumulated experience trading niche semi and hardware component plays over the years, Mellanox is a name that is hard for me to ignore. Extreme industry cyclicality, performance leapfrogging and fierce competition are a powerful combination that few if any niche component players can overcome. When a stock starts behaving like that is not the case, it is time to pay attention.

While it takes a good deal of luck to spot the next hot hardware play before it hits a sweet spot, it

In April, I published a article titled, "The Birken Burrito," in which I recommended shorting Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). For those that read the piece, the main focus of my short thesis was Chipotle's then seemingly unfathomable premium valuation to other popular food franchises and comparable premium brands.

To put things in perspective, I compared Chipotle's then 31x EV/EBITDA multiple to the 32x multiple of Hermes (HESAF.PK) because that's precisely where you needed to go to find a retailer trading on par with Chipotle's valuation. Well, a few months and 40% later, Chipotle has come back to earth and is now even an Einhorn short. Now, while I can see where Einhorn is going with this trade, I personally would not short Chipotle here. (I'd actually now rather be long it over almost any other name in the space)

Simply put, it is no longer a great company