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Akram's Razor

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  • Short The Lemon [View article]
    Lulu -30% kors +40%....doesn't get better than that
    Jan 13 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Is Way Overpriced, Trading At 51 Times Forward Free Cash Flow [View article]
    As a long-term google bull despite my extensive short-bent I would normally shoot something like this down. However, I think at this juncture you are right. Risk/reward wise it is now unattractive, and more compelling as a short. That being said there are a lot more compelling shorts out there, but in 100bil+ tech land you definitely need to consider shifting to an underweight here. At least until they show us they have developed an actual android...
    Dec 27 06:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes Mrs. Yellen, QE Is Creating An Asset Bubble [View article]
    Nice one. I can assure you Grandma will never see a bubble. I do wonder from a job standpoint what type of person would want to be fed chair after bernanke. The whole thing seems like a lose lose proposition. Unwinding the balance sheet is the tricky part of QE, and while i doubt she will even do that, the risk of having to would make me seriously consider taking such a job. Furthermore, if the economy runs into trouble, all she has to work with is the dulled knife bernanke left behind in the form of qe. It will be like treating an evolving strain with a now virtually ineffective antibody.

    What's her upside?
    Nov 18 07:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Snapchat/Facebook Means For Social Media [View article]
    I have been following snapchat from infancy, and I get why it is hot. But i can assure you fb will be happy they rejected this offer. I have always believed this company is one sexual child predator disaster away from the fbi shutting them down. Anyonymity is great, but when you create the optimal environment for porn peddling what can go wrong will. And based on the news last few days the first major scar has started. What makes fb boring is also what makes it a viable long term business...identity control and content regulation.
    Nov 18 06:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    If you had put 75ml into this company and your cost basis was closer $8 you'd want 12.50 too. Will be interesting to see of demand rights kick in on dec 1 and they start selling. Point is the structure of the deal was enough to stay away regardless of 'the business'. Chegg's original model that they raised substantial capital on has not worked....they need another 200mil to be able to navigate the transition...and that is not the type of investment risk/reward scenarios vc's pony up for. Basically, without an ipo raising the capital needed would have been difficult to impossible.
    Nov 18 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    Nope. Completely useless as far as making money goes, but i expected that. In all honesty, I wrote 99% of this nearly a month ago, I just didn't see the value in putting it out pre-ipo and making floating this thing anymore difficult than it probably was. Original title was "Please Spare us this Ipo"
    Nov 14 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • F5 Networks: Multiple Contraction Storm Coming [View article]
    The gross service revenue number on margins is not the margin number. As for the slight variance of 1% i'm guessing it rounding. The lack of guidance on service revenue remains quite interesting.
    Nov 14 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    Is that what this was about? Or where they looking at Web 2.0 and what model could be adopted to cash in on the mania. Not that there is anything wrong with that. Because if they were trying to revolutionize something, they would have dumped renting the books and focused on the services a while ago...but when ur investors are 150ml in...you can't focus on revolution....you need to get them their money back before you are bankrupt.
    Nov 14 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    In reality, its been the opposite. The renting of textbooks at a massive loss has given them users, and they have been now trying to cross sell them services. And since you clearly didn't read the piece..."not sure about the exact numbers"....in total nonprint text book renting revenue is less than 20%. That includes selling leads, slipping red bulls in textbooks, ebooks, and homework help. So, the actual services to students that is subscription revenue is single digits. Point is from a revenue base since there are nothing but massive losses here.....you bought a textbook renter....otherwise you'd have paid close to what they paid to buy cramster or notehall or anything else along those lines....which btw wont get you to $50mil
    Nov 14 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    And that generates how much revenue a quarter?
    Nov 14 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    Also, to be frank, if I was a VC in this deal I would be kissing his feet. He has saved these guys from a catastrophic loss by orchestrating a soft landing here. Business model challenges and institutional sales distribution client disregard aside (how many of you beleived in this deal?), he has over the past 24 months managed to to make the moves needed to get to a float.
    Nov 14 05:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    No the author is clueless about everything. Nice first time commenter btw. Also, this is not a review site for college textbook services. It is an investing website. If you care to contribute on why renting print textbooks will be a highly profitable business at some point, I am all ears.
    Nov 14 03:24 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    Thanks. But backing out depc expense when ur core biz is renting a highly depreciating asset doesnt jive... right? The cash flow is more than incinerated every year by purchases of new books, and sadly they are not making money selling these things off. Though from an efficient market standpoint....the ipo just gave them the kind of capital they need to play this game for a considerbal while longer
    Nov 14 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    Done my homework. He's a sharp cat.
    Nov 13 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    They have an excellent CEO. Other than that nothing i would want to invest in. NFLX DVD made money and put blockbuster and hollywood video out of business. Chegg is not going to put amazon out of business or the campus bookstore losing what they lose renting books. Scalability does not exist in the textbook rental business, and they have proven it. FB and Twtr are the definition of scalable platforms.
    Nov 13 01:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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