Stock is basically dead to me at these levels. I missed the move i have been chasing since december so i basically will ignore it till it gives a reason to take a second look....ie a much lower share price to go long on for a takeout thesis or what not or a bounce back that provides a good rational to try and short again. But that really depends on news flow....obviously will have good volatility on next guidance number which should determine whether its at 60 or 80 but on balance thats a coin flip so why bother....p\lenty of better things to trade now
It baffles me sometimes how many people don't get it. Why would I write an article about a stock and declare i was not it and that last quarter I lost money on it for any other reason than to illustrate the point that the sell side cheerleading squad on this one did mgmt a favor by buying into that nonsense guidance. I will bet you that it will be years if ever before ffiv sees 110 again if it is not gobbled up. The writing had been on the wall since july on this one. That is what irritates me here.
read my stuff....then come back to me....maybe also get on my distrib list as some sa people are....i could have included some email chains on this to prove it but i'm kind of beyond that at this point....there are some SA guys who were in the convo yesterday...if they feel like attesting they can...as for courage you may not have gotten the jist of the post....if i had the time to write it up....id have already been in....since i didnt even make it to the more important part of taking my position what does courage have to do with writing something....that whole part of your comment makes little sense to me
Why Lululemon Can Certainly Recover [View article]
19c impact on intercompa\ny transfer revised agreement tax benefit not a nickel...so effectively speaking 1.76-1.81 would have been guidance....which makes 1.85 pretty damn close and kills the guide conservative and beat handily driver that had been the norm for pr\evious 3 years....anyway if you are a trader you know damn well to steer clear of a momo once the momo juice runs out because repricing down tends to be just as vicious as premium paid on way up. This is now a show me play whose next earnings will be another big event
They are making good money doing these trades......you on the other hand want to talk fashion and don't know how to read a transcript or look up a days to cover ratio on nasdaq.com let alone calculate it yourself
Depends on your greed. If you are just short the stock, definitely somewhere below 60 before you start thinking about that. If you bought puts around 70\ as i did too its a bit more about risk/\reward, your portfolio balance, and alternatives. I cans say that for me to be long lulu i need oversold/lucrative price and we are clearly not close to that yet. Now whether it gets to a screaming buy p\oint i don't know , but right now it still looks like a toss up short with a full out the door growth year to worry about. While thats not what i look for to initiaite a p\ositions, its definitely not when I cover an existing short. Mumbo jumbo aside i stand by 58 before april opt\ions exp\ire...
Look I don't have the time to try and explain to you why a stock and a company are not the same thing, and that growth can be overpriced and that contractions can be overpriced by the market. Hence, you can double your money in best buy shares and lose 25% in lulu shares in the same time period. I am not shorting the company of 2009-2012. I am shorting the company of 2012-2013. If you can't discern the difference you are no different than the people who lost 40% in apple over the p\ast few months despite it being the most p\rofitable company on earth. What a stock price implies about the future is all that is relevant. If it is priced with the expectation of 100% growth but only capable of delivering 50% it is a better short than a comp\any contracting at 10% a year that is priced for such a contraction. So, I cannot sit here and converse over whether their bottoms are awesome or how much you love iviva or whether or not their showroom in hk was crowded. That is a small piece of the pie for me. Its like saying I will buy apple shares because the nyc store had a line around the block when ip\hone 5 launched. A line around the block was not enough...it needed to run down to wall street for me to buy the shares at 700. I look at a compa\ny and ask myself if the past rate of growth is set to sharply slow, and then try to figure out whether i caught that before the market did. Thats it. Faulty assumptions is all i care about and margin for error. Nobody knows p\recisely what lulu will do tomorrow, but for me i like being short the stock at this p\rice at this time in the comp\anys life cycle...its that simple. There are thousands of stocks out there to buy all growing or shrinking at different rates....the opportunity is finding the ones that are mispricing the future the most. And to be honest making money on these things would be a lot harder if so many p\eop\le didnt think the way you did and assume crowded stores and nice products were all that mattered for an investment to work. But because of this growth stories get overp\riced and then the minute a downshift hap\p\ens they get rep\riced or underp\riced. This will go on forever....
I'd be short at this level still as i now think the conference call becomes very interesting. My view was that 2013 guidance would be lackluster and so far the q1 indicator is not enough to say that is in the bag, but as i expect q2/\q3 to be the weaker quarters and as this was more about bottom line drag for me I am pretty confident that will be the case. And that the shares should have been between 55-60 because of that....now that just looks more likely but because this is looking crowded short wise id say it could require tolerating a few bump\s to get there
Yes, I did not call this, but what I called is transitional year and pointed out that the best companies can have issues. Now this is 100% guaranteed to be a transitional year with the added supply chain issues to go with international build up plans. Your failure to comprehend press releases is impresive.. Q4 numbers are known and the comp is high single...they have guided to 5-8% for q1 versus 11% pre recall target. That to me is in line with what i was looking for as i expect the weaker comps to be in q2/q3 and overall full year to be high single digits. I have a 58$ tgt on the shares on or before april exp\iration which p\retty much is now just about built in. Overall, you can expect sub 20% eps growth this year which means you are paying an insane premium to wait for all this to get sorted and them to execute to perfection just to supp\ort the stock......that is not a very good strategy
Yeah, this is just a reminder that the best of companies can have operational issues, but all in all not so interested in this news. So q1 was comping 11% before this so my guess is high single digit guidance for the year is what they were looking at. I'd actually argue this is annoying if you are short because it gets people thinking this is a hiccup and shifts attention away from the slowing growth. Im still more interested in what their roll out plans were p\re this as well as tgt comp\ for the year and margin goals. Good news here though is staying short now a lot easier as the name will have its fair share of slow exiters looking for better p\laces to p\ark till this gets sorted.
You know I'd love to just ignore posts like this, but for the last time I will respond. So here we go....
1) The comp number is not my estimate..from last cc..."We anticipate revenue in the range of $475 million to $480 million. This is based on comparable store sales percentage increase in the high-single digits on a constant dollar basis compared to the fourth quarter of 2011." This was then raffirmed at the ICR presentation which came a few days before the quarter closed. So, comps are slowing sharply and what will be interesting and remains unknown is what they will guide for 2013. 2) I never said they are saturated. What i did was point out that they are actual past the total addressable market p\oint of 40% for USA and i compared that to wfm who is only at 35% and still sold off. P\oint is to counter the argument that companies with still huge perceived TAM headroom can't see their stocks bludgeoned. 3) Iviva is deminumus now and not worth addressing from a current stock p\rice perspe\ctive....cmg has chophouse....whole foods is op\ening a wellness resort....obviously all have future potential but for the share price now that is not a focus. And a new concept can be distracting for a company like this....not that i think it will....but you get my point 4)As for short interest cover ratio lulu's number is fine and not one i'd worry about and this is not a nflx with all kinds of question marks around it...the model is well understood and working its just a case of the stock being too p\ricey now considering were they are at in US momentum versus the investment they will have to make to p\ush out abroad before those markets can really start to show what they will generate.....and i have not even gotten into competition.
On a side note there is no certainty the stock will fall and I wouldn't be shocked in the least bit if i got this wrong here and it bounces back some. That's not my thesis though, but i am prep\ared for it. What irritates me is you exp\ect me to respond and you have not even done the basic due dilligence on the name to have this conversation. If you can't read a cc transcrip\t or a p\ress release, why should i waste my time explaining to you that this is where the data is from. I mean you really don't get my thesis in the least bit....the compa\ny is great.....just like wfm, cmg, and app\le....but that is not why i am shorting here.
Don't disagree, could be a bunch of crazy pe\ople following me. Anywa, never paid attention to the stats, and i dont get p\aid for my content. Every now and then i like putting something out here and seeing what people think. Comment section is more valuable to me
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1) The comp number is not my estimate..from last cc..."We anticipate revenue in the range of $475 million to $480 million. This is based on comparable store sales percentage increase in the high-single digits on a constant dollar basis compared to the fourth quarter of 2011."
This was then raffirmed at the ICR presentation which came a few days before the quarter closed. So, comps are slowing sharply and what will be interesting and remains unknown is what they will guide for 2013.
2) I never said they are saturated. What i did was point out that they are actual past the total addressable market p\oint of 40% for USA and i compared that to wfm who is only at 35% and still sold off. P\oint is to counter the argument that companies with still huge perceived TAM headroom can't see their stocks bludgeoned.
3) Iviva is deminumus now and not worth addressing from a current stock p\rice perspe\ctive....cmg has chophouse....whole foods is op\ening a wellness resort....obviously all have future potential but for the share price now that is not a focus. And a new concept can be distracting for a company like this....not that i think it will....but you get my point
4)As for short interest cover ratio lulu's number is fine and not one i'd worry about and this is not a nflx with all kinds of question marks around it...the model is well understood and working its just a case of the stock being too p\ricey now considering were they are at in US momentum versus the investment they will have to make to p\ush out abroad before those markets can really start to show what they will generate.....and i have not even gotten into competition.
On a side note there is no certainty the stock will fall and I wouldn't be shocked in the least bit if i got this wrong here and it bounces back some. That's not my thesis though, but i am prep\ared for it. What irritates me is you exp\ect me to respond and you have not even done the basic due dilligence on the name to have this conversation. If you can't read a cc transcrip\t or a p\ress release, why should i waste my time explaining to you that this is where the data is from. I mean you really don't get my thesis in the least bit....the compa\ny is great.....just like wfm, cmg, and app\le....but that is not why i am shorting here.
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