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Akram's Razor  

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  • Yes Mrs. Yellen, QE Is Creating An Asset Bubble [View article]
    Nice one. I can assure you Grandma will never see a bubble. I do wonder from a job standpoint what type of person would want to be fed chair after bernanke. The whole thing seems like a lose lose proposition. Unwinding the balance sheet is the tricky part of QE, and while i doubt she will even do that, the risk of having to would make me seriously consider taking such a job. Furthermore, if the economy runs into trouble, all she has to work with is the dulled knife bernanke left behind in the form of qe. It will be like treating an evolving strain with a now virtually ineffective antibody.

    What's her upside?
    Nov 18, 2013. 07:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Snapchat/Facebook Means For Social Media [View article]
    I have been following snapchat from infancy, and I get why it is hot. But i can assure you fb will be happy they rejected this offer. I have always believed this company is one sexual child predator disaster away from the fbi shutting them down. Anyonymity is great, but when you create the optimal environment for porn peddling what can go wrong will. And based on the news last few days the first major scar has started. What makes fb boring is also what makes it a viable long term business...identity control and content regulation.
    Nov 18, 2013. 06:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    If you had put 75ml into this company and your cost basis was closer $8 you'd want 12.50 too. Will be interesting to see of demand rights kick in on dec 1 and they start selling. Point is the structure of the deal was enough to stay away regardless of 'the business'. Chegg's original model that they raised substantial capital on has not worked....they need another 200mil to be able to navigate the transition...and that is not the type of investment risk/reward scenarios vc's pony up for. Basically, without an ipo raising the capital needed would have been difficult to impossible.
    Nov 18, 2013. 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    Nope. Completely useless as far as making money goes, but i expected that. In all honesty, I wrote 99% of this nearly a month ago, I just didn't see the value in putting it out pre-ipo and making floating this thing anymore difficult than it probably was. Original title was "Please Spare us this Ipo"
    Nov 14, 2013. 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • F5 Networks: Multiple Contraction Storm Coming [View article]
    The gross service revenue number on margins is not the margin number. As for the slight variance of 1% i'm guessing it rounding. The lack of guidance on service revenue remains quite interesting.
    Nov 14, 2013. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    Is that what this was about? Or where they looking at Web 2.0 and what model could be adopted to cash in on the mania. Not that there is anything wrong with that. Because if they were trying to revolutionize something, they would have dumped renting the books and focused on the services a while ago...but when ur investors are 150ml can't focus on need to get them their money back before you are bankrupt.
    Nov 14, 2013. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    In reality, its been the opposite. The renting of textbooks at a massive loss has given them users, and they have been now trying to cross sell them services. And since you clearly didn't read the piece..."not sure about the exact numbers" total nonprint text book renting revenue is less than 20%. That includes selling leads, slipping red bulls in textbooks, ebooks, and homework help. So, the actual services to students that is subscription revenue is single digits. Point is from a revenue base since there are nothing but massive losses bought a textbook renter....otherwise you'd have paid close to what they paid to buy cramster or notehall or anything else along those lines....which btw wont get you to $50mil
    Nov 14, 2013. 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    And that generates how much revenue a quarter?
    Nov 14, 2013. 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    Also, to be frank, if I was a VC in this deal I would be kissing his feet. He has saved these guys from a catastrophic loss by orchestrating a soft landing here. Business model challenges and institutional sales distribution client disregard aside (how many of you beleived in this deal?), he has over the past 24 months managed to to make the moves needed to get to a float.
    Nov 14, 2013. 05:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    No the author is clueless about everything. Nice first time commenter btw. Also, this is not a review site for college textbook services. It is an investing website. If you care to contribute on why renting print textbooks will be a highly profitable business at some point, I am all ears.
    Nov 14, 2013. 03:24 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    Thanks. But backing out depc expense when ur core biz is renting a highly depreciating asset doesnt jive... right? The cash flow is more than incinerated every year by purchases of new books, and sadly they are not making money selling these things off. Though from an efficient market standpoint....the ipo just gave them the kind of capital they need to play this game for a considerbal while longer
    Nov 14, 2013. 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    Done my homework. He's a sharp cat.
    Nov 13, 2013. 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Bubbles And Slipping Through The IPO Cracks [View article]
    They have an excellent CEO. Other than that nothing i would want to invest in. NFLX DVD made money and put blockbuster and hollywood video out of business. Chegg is not going to put amazon out of business or the campus bookstore losing what they lose renting books. Scalability does not exist in the textbook rental business, and they have proven it. FB and Twtr are the definition of scalable platforms.
    Nov 13, 2013. 01:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    Yes, if you told me these things it would matter.

    And yes, comments like this...

    "If FL's and NS's hypergrowth is not organic enough for you, then we are not surprised you are not in the stock. We too were skeptical about the acquisitions at first but over the past 3 quarters have done a complete 180 on that. We now love the deals."

    and this...

    "Regarding the acquisitions, why equity? Have you ever tried to acquire similar businesses in China? One of us spent 1/3 of his career at a reputable PE firm trying to do just that. Here's a news flash: It's very, very hard to do with cash."

    Do go a long way with someone like me.

    And as I stated earlier, I found the concerns regarding xu's employment record at Nq largely irrelevant. But the Santa piece disclosures did in fact go in the exact direction that a person paying attention to red flags would get worried about. So, i ask you, is it wrong of me to become more skeptical when i read these purported facts? Furthermore, is it wrong to have my suspicions elevated when i go from running a simple google search that brought up something that seemed strangely coincidental to reading what MW's put out in their latest piece?

    And with respect to the SAIC financials, I can only ask why have they not disclosed what it is that has you comfy if this is literally the only thing that matters as far as putting an end to all questions regarding potential revenue overstatements. With all the back and forth between you and MW's and Nq, it would appear to be the only thing that actually matters from an investing standpoint. I mean based on the direction MW's seems to be heading it doesn't seem like they want to keep pounding the table on it which i'd say works in your favor. So, to be blunt, end this nonsense and win the battle in one strike by showing their is zero merit there. At that point it is game over for this short thesis no matter who worked for who and who financed what...and what stupid expirments were or were not tried on the way to finding the future growth engine of this company.
    Nov 13, 2013. 07:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    "Regarding the filings, we know the real numbers. Telling you more won't change a thing because you won't believe it, and that's also fine".

    That's just arrogant. Because the filed numbers make ZERO sense and are unreconciliable, clearing them up would go a long way for someone like me. But I guess you have material information that is not being disclosed to all of us 'if you know the real numbers'. (If i write 15 articles saying this is a good investment will I get to see the real numbers too, and then be able qualified investment decision?). Furthermore, if the santa article is not 'entirely true' and omits important facts. Why don't you share them. That actually is as i said from the beginning before MW published ...a lot more concerning for someone like me. The fact that she was zhou's gm at an sp and that he likely bankrolled the purchase of ydt as well as 9h does jump out at me when i see ydt not make a cent...borrow money from nq....and nq soar to the sky. Sorry, dealt with enough fraud over the years to give a shit about these things.

    Furthermore, why does a company that thinks its stock is so cheap and is entering turbo growth mode make every acquisition largely in stock with 100mil cash on hand? And then use cash to buyback stock?

    This is an inorganic assembled mobile china revenue story. This has been possible because the 'story' was sold so well. Now that there is digging into their past, I can see why they want people to just move on and focus on today. And seriously a 3ml pledge with the stock these guys have received? Anyway, there are more interesting things in the market than this stock. And as far as highly monetizable mobile platforms in invested the highest quality one and quite content.

    Oh, and for the record I think MW's last piece was a low blow. I think personal attacks are such a weak counter when you are engaged in argument on the merits. But at the same time, if the argument is mgmt is lying through their teeth...well, i can't see anything less than a raid of their offices ever resulting in a 'final resolution' to whether there have been material overstatement in 2012 or earlier. So, credibility is important for MW's case, and there is no denying that the IR/Wedge guy stuff is just bizarro. When the hell does that happen? This guy was really doing research/running money in colloboration with a short focused firm? He quits as CIO/President to go be an IR guy for a company that his former partners deemed fraudulent. Forget MW's and the stock...that is just nuts. And what would it take to convince a Hedge Fund Manager to become an IR guy? I'm guessing a very sweat deal. And more importantly what type of companies feel compelled to need to overpay for IR. Hmm, one's that are too preoccupied with their stock price as a means for the business model instead of a reflection of it.

    Anyway, i do hope you guys end up looking like geniuses and make out like bandits here. But when it over and you look back....i am sure you'll FULLY UNDERSTAND....where i was coming from.
    Nov 13, 2013. 04:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment