Seeking Alpha

Akram's Razor

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Akram's Razor's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    I can tell you outside of Olam, he has had very tempered attacks on the others. Especially sprd which i got burned on because i know tech semi pretty well, and felt all the red flags where hard to ignore. FMCN, I longed. Qihu i have longed and shorted, but never because of anything they put out. The others I have not messed with. But seeing as i did not participate in snof, I would say reading his notes has yet to make me one cent except going against him. However, the only comparable here piece wise is snof which is why the damage if he is wrong here will be permanent and probably quite costly financially for him.
    Nov 4, 2013. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    Yes, I have no clue what will happen with the convert. If i did, I'd obviously have a position in the stock. And if i wanted to be short biased I'd tell you them being silent is a bad sign. The simple fact of the matter is that at best there are very weak internal controls here, at worst its some sort of fraud. Weak controls can be fixed, and this whole fiasco will lead to just that and longs will recover in time. Fraud on the other hand will be no good for anyone. As an fyi- i am long sina which i can assure you will suffer if that ends up being the case...so i am hoping for the former
    Nov 4, 2013. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    What's obvious is the amount of people on here defending the stock with no history whatsoever on the site. I was asked to take a look at the name precisely because I do a good deal of short-selling. That is exactly what this post is about. And I have always disclosed my positions in the past. If I was short this, I would do so here too. And judging by my replies you should have figured out by now that I remain unconvinced on the outcome. What I am however convinced of is that there are a lot things going on here that could have been avoided by a more careful managment team, but having listened to them on CC's and seen their stock sales I am not exactly surprised that they found themselves in this predicament.
    Nov 4, 2013. 12:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    I have no clue. That's why I have no position. But I wouldn't read too much into their silence. These organizations are obviously very liability conscience so they will take their time before saying anything. They actually are running 100 year franchises, so jumping the gun could cost them dearly.
    Nov 4, 2013. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    yes, i'm a spam author, 5 years on the site and 70 articles.
    Nov 4, 2013. 11:36 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    This is ironic considering the biggest example fast money wise here are the insiders. Judging by their stock sales they don't have anything close to a 100 year vision.
    Nov 4, 2013. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    I don't need to be convinced of anything. Clearly the company has liquidity, and the convert was enough to convince me of that as well as the cash flow statement. I shared this because I did it as a favor, and it without a doubt helps explain just why MW was CAPABLE of raising this red flag. Which is precisely what it was. This could have been easily avoided with a more conservative approach commiserate with where the company is in its lifecycle. I assure you there is not a reputable investor in history would not agree with that conclusion. It is simply aggressive cash mgmt which can lead to or be a sign of other potential weaknesses. Now it would appear when all is said and done mw's word choices might be libelous, but they will have a decent defense here as far as this being a red flag.

    What would have been better PR wise is acknowledging the mistake, and fully explaining why at the time it seemed like the right decision for NQ to do what no 'blue chip' names are willing to do with their cash. And then simply transferring some cash as was done to completely shoot their allegations out of the sky.

    The point here is they built a case with many points that are in my opinion the direct byproduct of carelessness on managment's part. Outside of their technical allegations every single other thing they pointed out could have been 100% avoided with better disclosure and stricter operating controls. If that is not a roadmap for how to manage the pr around this i don't know what is. Acknowedlge the weaknesses and say we will correct them. Something along "We are a young fast growing company, and these things can happen to such a company"
    That is what i look for versus buybacks and quotes about 100 year plans.
    Nov 4, 2013. 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    And if that is true he will be dealing with lawsuits for a VERY VERY long time. And nobody will ever take a report he writes seriously again. On a side note, I too made money long fmcn.
    Nov 4, 2013. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    The takeaway here is if they had simply held some cash level 1, MW's argument/allegations would have been much weaker. Whose fault is that? If Bidu and Sina feel the need to hold a decent level 1 reserve shouldn't nq? Again it simply is a sign of operational control weakness...not conclusive of anything...but something I obviously would prefer did not exist if i am long a stock.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    Post Sino forest, I wouldnt necessarily disagree with you. But then again go unearth a multi-billion dollar fraud, and tell me whether you need to do anything ever again.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    I think if MW's is wrong here the reputational damage will be irreversible. Considering what he has built up, I do factor that into my analysis of the situation. As for the cash, bidu and sina have the 'luxury' of holding some cash in level 2 or even all of it. The point here is neither does that yet the company that shouldn't have the luxury of doing that is actually doing precisely that.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    As a side note, clearly a lot of people where burned here and understandbly are quite upset. You should be asking yourself whether this happened because of MW or because management made at least a few mistakes if not several.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    It's sad that some people have a hard time understanding what is an honest walk through of just why this was capable of happening. You think MW could have done this to Bidu or Sina(WHICH BTW I AM A WELL KNOW UBER BULL ON HERE). No they couldn't.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    It hurts your credibility that you don't understand that no business, let alone a high growth tech business with high carrier dso's shouldn't be caring about a few % incremental return versus having highly liquid cash on hand at all times. MW may be flat out wrong and even reckless in its comments, but there is no denying this is not 'PRUDENT' cash managment for any company let alone a young 'growth' story. Same goes for the buyback. I don't go long 50% plus revenue growth companies for share buybacks.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    Good, that is precisely what you should be doing, and more than happy to be long the stock if this is actually the case. As I stated in another comment, I would not short your stock here. However, there is no denying that there is a lot of 'confusion' regarding the secure nature of the product if bloomberg is getting third party paid reports that seem to support what MW put out there. As for everything else beyond the buyback, I have would be willing to discount out to being a fast growing business in china's wild west.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
987 Comments
1,087 Likes