Kind of a non event report. But bill is definitely wrong here. There were fears of disaster coming into this quarter and frankly speaking that was clearly not the case. So this is still a 40-45 stock and had u follwoed my newsletter advice and sold puts into the rep\ort vs being long your a happy camper. Still think takeout close to 60 happens at some p\oint but i need a sell off to get excited about being long
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Your worst case is probably their best case, so your forecasting is way off. The key to this stock here is figuring out what the patent portfolio, network infrastructure, and cash are worth. I'd say if you liquidated the company today its worth more than market cap, but i think handset biz is a value destroyer so the longer we go without a strategic move the closer you get to burning through the cash pile and the weaker the bargainng position on the other assets
Whole Foods Earnings Preview: Can This Premier Specialty Grocer's Incredible Growth Continue? [View article]
You are the definition of an arrogant troll. Every post you make is about how great an investor you are and how easy it is, and you mock others in a way that just screams complete total insecurity. You might want to take a long look at your comment history and then consider how other people on here view you. Fact of the matter is you know very little about investing, and even less about markets that anyone would find useful. And you have completely missed the whole point of the whole foods debate i have been engaged in. You keep mocking traders like we are wasting time when in fact if you had followed my advice to a tee into the last two whole foods earnings, which is where i started being bearish, you would have made 100-300% return on both occasions. And this is from a former wfm long term long investor. Work harder? Well when the reward in two days of being invested equals what you have done over years in a stock....its more than worth it. Anyway, best of luck thinking you actually own the grocery store you are shopping at by owning the stock.
I always find comment sections on strong brands that i short interesting. People continue to think you can just walk into a store and see whats popular and buy the stock and make money. When i was shorting Apple last winter a friend was visiting nyc and all he could talk about was the traffic at the apple store, and how it must be a buy. 35% later the stores are still super busy and the stock is near a single digit multiple. .....spot a trend early on and ride a wave is great...like i said i went into a whole posts on briarcliff and was sold on the concept 14yrs ago...i bought the stock the next day....but here i am shorting it now. This stock is a sell right now if i have ever seen one....they pulled an apple guidance wise and explicitly stated 'don't expect the same growth for now' and there was plenty of noise in the q1/q2 numbers....and tone of mgmt on two questions indicated to me they had some more serious macro concerns but hesitated and chose not to voice them. When this all happens on one day after 8 quarters of perfection...you get the hell out and wait either for a much lower price or evidence that expectations are easily beatable again and that momentum is reacclerating not temporarily deacclerating
Angi is a short squeeze. I have not traded it in almost a year but the business is one a confidently beleive doesnt make it. Problem is liquidity sucks ...similar issue in homeaway and trulia.....so its tough to take a view. I think there is a yahoo bid under angi/open...open makes sense as i think they come out a winner here versus competition and mobile pitch works well for them so google is another potential suitor if they want to bolster android/ads....especially with them owning zaggat i think that makes sense which means who will end up buying yelp? Yahoo? But i see angies list eventually being left alone at the dance so its a good short if u dont mind the illiquidity here. I have sworn off the whole internet bunch for now just because its a sector move u dont want to fight and i know if i look closely i will want to ....so better wait till your out of ideas then come in for a look....id rather be short cloud/web services over content/social in tech right now
Obviously you don't buy puts here. Play was to short physical pre mkt if you are trading. I'm in pre-earnings and looking for the vol so i bought may 95 strike at about 2.8. Very happy but not nearly as nice as the rax 70's from yesterday. Unfortunntely ulta surprised me so im only physically short. Would love to write all these up when i trade earnings but just dont have the time....
Disagree 1) Guidance was a classic message to market that eps growth rate will be down modestly this year which is a surprise as Q1 has been a beat and raise quarter after q4 reaffirms three years running
2) Tone was as i said transitory which is a sell signal for every momo/fast money type as past tone had been resounding optimism for two years running
Combine this with a stock at the high end of any range for anything like it and you will see underperformance and selling pressure till it gets oversol which for now is probably 83-85.
This thing will snap back but it will likely begin off a much lower base and into q3 and not q2 call.
I agree with you on that. What few people on here realize is this was the first stock I ever bought into growth story wise way back when they opened their first store next to my apartment in atlanta back in 1999. I then went through a short phase with it into the recession and then a long phase with it in the recovery though have not been long it since high 60's low 70's. I dabbled with a short a year ago and then got much more aggresive on it the last quarter and then into this quarter. Its easy to wrap your head around it at these levels and fundamentally justify shorting it with manageable downside and greater downside reward. But growth is growth at the end of the day and right now you are overpaying for it in wfm and underpaying for it by a signficant margin elsewhere...when the gap narrows i will reevaluate.
You'd think that makes sense but I'm taking the other side here. Last report was disappointing and despite an initial drop to 62$ it bounced back fast pre-mkt and then rallied on short covering. After that you got some selling pressure on a ramp in online promotions and then the ICR disappointment as well no comment on guidance going forward. It's only held its ground thanks to the market, and I'd argue general confusion about what the hell to do with the name. Bulls have been ignoring the slowing momentum thanks to optimism that investment/innovation is set to spark a new pickup. That view is now giving way to clear concerns that the momentum is not around the corner, and thus that its instant gratifcation days are for now behind it. So its now a short until proven wrong instead of vice versa.
Whole Foods Earnings Preview: Can This Premier Specialty Grocer's Incredible Growth Continue? [View article]
You should get a whole foods tatoo. Great company yes, but still a sell here. Value is not there. I'd much rather own starbux at these levels or some of their competition which i own. Fyi- Wfm since i recommended shorting it is down 7-10%.... same time period....safeway up 30%, supervalue 42%, kroger 15%, sbux 11%.
As i explained before...weaker companies can be amazing longs and great companies can be amazing shorts....just depends on what the market is pricing in....whole foods here offers negative value.....and horrible relative value
I'm short this stock and not going away anytime soon. Competitive environment in North America is starting to shift against them, brand identity outside north america is zero which can be interpreted either way but comparable companies market cap wise are globally very well known. Compare it to michael kors and tell me its cheap. Furthermore, retail is a fickle space and highly volatile, look at anf, coach, zumz, and deckers. As for UA I agree its an enigma and it compares very poorly against wfm, but i think the view there is addressable market and staying power for the brand is stronger. Shoes in particular as well as high performance athletics is just broader than yoga comfort wear is the take there....basically lulu competition threats come from both nike/ua in sports as well as casual lifestyle clothing brands. Also very easy to undercut them on price and seems to be an issue that is now starting to materialize.
Beyond that stock does look broken...ie something negative is in the pipe whether it be a short seller or a warning or some significant downgrade....and when that is the case it also attracts people in that mix who might see it as vulnerable to just that which really leaves you exposed if your long to a information void that can be entirely filled by bears till the company can come out and prove otherwise. I have a high 40's low 50's target and am patiently waiting....so pretty much concur with this author.
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Whole Foods Earnings Preview: Can This Premier Specialty Grocer's Incredible Growth Continue? [View article]
Whole Foods Earnings Preview: Can This Premier Specialty Grocer's Incredible Growth Continue? [View article]
Whole Foods Is A Short [View article]
Whole Foods Is A Short [View article]
Whole Foods Is A Short [View article]
Whole Foods Is A Short [View article]
1) Guidance was a classic message to market that eps growth rate will be down modestly this year which is a surprise as Q1 has been a beat and raise quarter after q4 reaffirms three years running
2) Tone was as i said transitory which is a sell signal for every momo/fast money type as past tone had been resounding optimism for two years running
Combine this with a stock at the high end of any range for anything like it and you will see underperformance and selling pressure till it gets oversol which for now is probably 83-85.
This thing will snap back but it will likely begin off a much lower base and into q3 and not q2 call.
Whole Foods Is A Short [View article]
Whole Foods Is A Short [View article]
Whole Foods Is A Short [View article]
I'm long plenty of stocks....just not this one.
Whole Foods Is A Short [View article]
Lululemon Is Overvalued [View article]
Whole Foods Earnings Preview: Can This Premier Specialty Grocer's Incredible Growth Continue? [View article]
Great company yes, but still a sell here. Value is not there. I'd much rather own starbux at these levels or some of their competition which i own.
Fyi- Wfm since i recommended shorting it is down 7-10%....
same time period....safeway up 30%, supervalue 42%, kroger 15%, sbux 11%.
As i explained before...weaker companies can be amazing longs and great companies can be amazing shorts....just depends on what the market is pricing in....whole foods here offers negative value.....and horrible relative value
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Beyond that stock does look broken...ie something negative is in the pipe whether it be a short seller or a warning or some significant downgrade....and when that is the case it also attracts people in that mix who might see it as vulnerable to just that which really leaves you exposed if your long to a information void that can be entirely filled by bears till the company can come out and prove otherwise. I have a high 40's low 50's target and am patiently waiting....so pretty much concur with this author.