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Akram's Razor  

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  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    Actually, for full disclosure sake I did finally collect from SA last month. The email reminders finally got to me. I can say that wire changed my life. Going to disneyland.
    Nov 4, 2013. 04:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    I am quite familiar with classifcations. And yes by definition, LEVEL 2 is not considered LIQUID. We mark based on quoted prices in relatively much less active markets versus any level 1 instrument which is considered Liquid. And no, showing what they showed was not sufficient because frankly speaking I still don't fully understand what it is they are doing cash mgmt wise. I'd like to understand why they are holding zero liquid cash on hand. And not instruments that can be converted in cash or maybe borrowed against when a short seller publishes a report saying i most likely have no cash. Berskshire, Bidu, Sina, Apple, and Msft feel holding liquid cash is a necesseity despite being able to do the same thing, then why this mgmt team concluded this is no big deal.
    Nov 4, 2013. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    My hunch is that MW's has more, and most likely whatever it may be is coming from some sort of whistleblower who we wont ever here about. But yes, if this is all she wrote, getting on tv and saying 80% of revenues dont exist would be unethical. I short a lot of companies, and I have yet to accuse one of fraud because that is a serious allegation even though at times I have come across some quite suspicious activity. To do so and profit because of it without consequences would be something I would not condone in the least bit. Which is why i wrote that i think he is all in here, and will suffer irreprable damage if he is wrong. That in of itself is what made this different from every other thing he has put out since snof. And for those trading, the fact that the stock remains where it is in of itself shows this is being taken quite seriously by real money in the market. I would be waiting for whatever it is that will be their followup, and then make a call if i wanted to be long.
    Nov 4, 2013. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    I have zero clue whether or not this is an outright fraud. But if it is not, yes essentially that is exactly what I am saying. Paying attention to all these things is what keeps you out of disasters. They have nobody to blame but themselves because 1bil listed companies should not be making these mistakes. And as a shareholder I'd be furious about all these seemingly explainable red flags especially considering they seemed to be aware that somebody was snooping around, and that another short seller had raised issues.
    Nov 4, 2013. 03:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    If he is wrong here, plenty of people will care. He clearly has pushed this one hard or it wouldn't be performing as it is. They made it easy with a lot of sloppiness, but if more susbtance doesn't follow he is going to be seriously on the defensive. In every other instance he had a lot of red flags, but nothing as aggressive as outright stating we beleive 80% of the revenue is fake and that the cash may likely not exist. So, i can assure you he will be dealing with this headache for a long time if he is wrong.
    Nov 4, 2013. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    I can tell you outside of Olam, he has had very tempered attacks on the others. Especially sprd which i got burned on because i know tech semi pretty well, and felt all the red flags where hard to ignore. FMCN, I longed. Qihu i have longed and shorted, but never because of anything they put out. The others I have not messed with. But seeing as i did not participate in snof, I would say reading his notes has yet to make me one cent except going against him. However, the only comparable here piece wise is snof which is why the damage if he is wrong here will be permanent and probably quite costly financially for him.
    Nov 4, 2013. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    Yes, I have no clue what will happen with the convert. If i did, I'd obviously have a position in the stock. And if i wanted to be short biased I'd tell you them being silent is a bad sign. The simple fact of the matter is that at best there are very weak internal controls here, at worst its some sort of fraud. Weak controls can be fixed, and this whole fiasco will lead to just that and longs will recover in time. Fraud on the other hand will be no good for anyone. As an fyi- i am long sina which i can assure you will suffer if that ends up being the case...so i am hoping for the former
    Nov 4, 2013. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    What's obvious is the amount of people on here defending the stock with no history whatsoever on the site. I was asked to take a look at the name precisely because I do a good deal of short-selling. That is exactly what this post is about. And I have always disclosed my positions in the past. If I was short this, I would do so here too. And judging by my replies you should have figured out by now that I remain unconvinced on the outcome. What I am however convinced of is that there are a lot things going on here that could have been avoided by a more careful managment team, but having listened to them on CC's and seen their stock sales I am not exactly surprised that they found themselves in this predicament.
    Nov 4, 2013. 12:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    I have no clue. That's why I have no position. But I wouldn't read too much into their silence. These organizations are obviously very liability conscience so they will take their time before saying anything. They actually are running 100 year franchises, so jumping the gun could cost them dearly.
    Nov 4, 2013. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    yes, i'm a spam author, 5 years on the site and 70 articles.
    Nov 4, 2013. 11:36 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    This is ironic considering the biggest example fast money wise here are the insiders. Judging by their stock sales they don't have anything close to a 100 year vision.
    Nov 4, 2013. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    I don't need to be convinced of anything. Clearly the company has liquidity, and the convert was enough to convince me of that as well as the cash flow statement. I shared this because I did it as a favor, and it without a doubt helps explain just why MW was CAPABLE of raising this red flag. Which is precisely what it was. This could have been easily avoided with a more conservative approach commiserate with where the company is in its lifecycle. I assure you there is not a reputable investor in history would not agree with that conclusion. It is simply aggressive cash mgmt which can lead to or be a sign of other potential weaknesses. Now it would appear when all is said and done mw's word choices might be libelous, but they will have a decent defense here as far as this being a red flag.

    What would have been better PR wise is acknowledging the mistake, and fully explaining why at the time it seemed like the right decision for NQ to do what no 'blue chip' names are willing to do with their cash. And then simply transferring some cash as was done to completely shoot their allegations out of the sky.

    The point here is they built a case with many points that are in my opinion the direct byproduct of carelessness on managment's part. Outside of their technical allegations every single other thing they pointed out could have been 100% avoided with better disclosure and stricter operating controls. If that is not a roadmap for how to manage the pr around this i don't know what is. Acknowedlge the weaknesses and say we will correct them. Something along "We are a young fast growing company, and these things can happen to such a company"
    That is what i look for versus buybacks and quotes about 100 year plans.
    Nov 4, 2013. 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    And if that is true he will be dealing with lawsuits for a VERY VERY long time. And nobody will ever take a report he writes seriously again. On a side note, I too made money long fmcn.
    Nov 4, 2013. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    The takeaway here is if they had simply held some cash level 1, MW's argument/allegations would have been much weaker. Whose fault is that? If Bidu and Sina feel the need to hold a decent level 1 reserve shouldn't nq? Again it simply is a sign of operational control weakness...not conclusive of anything...but something I obviously would prefer did not exist if i am long a stock.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    Post Sino forest, I wouldnt necessarily disagree with you. But then again go unearth a multi-billion dollar fraud, and tell me whether you need to do anything ever again.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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