Lol.....tried that already. Was not a good experience. Couldn't believe how quickly they fell behind the curve. Should have stuck to shorting nokia. I had paired the two together and then started to fall in love with rimm valuation and broke my hedge. In retrospect, stupid move on my part. Almost as stupid as shrting apple at 100. But I guess we learn from our mistakes.
Just a quick comment on the early responses..........
As I expected most people think I am predicting the end of the company. Yet my argument calls for crack in the armor manifesting itself over the next 15 months. The type of crack that causes pm's building a 10yr model to conclude that this is not a cheap stock and that several years of sequentially declining sales and margins are staring it in the face unless something miraculous happens
Basically 1 and 3. The device shift is happening already. But three is my key point. Linux failed to open the door for the oems.....android and apple are doing that for them. Msft and intel have retained way too much share of the pc profit pie as the pc has fallen in price over the last decade. They will need to give some of that back as the computer is now nothing more than a gateway to the network.
I know some very talented people in the industry that would disagree. I am looking at this from an oem perspective. They just need a crack to start pressuring them on pricing. And consumer margins are the fattest of all. But like I said you don't need much for this to work. Look at windows this way. 10 years amazing growth. 10 years as a utility. 10 years of a steady decline. 15 month puts are worth it as the shake up in consumer is starting. And sentiment will get nasty on this name...worse than google before this quarter and maybe as bad as rimm.
I knew this would stir controversy and 8million timing quotes.....all that matters to me is that their are now cracks in the armor that Linux failed to make. Apple is no longer a small threat to pc sales, and google model is dangerous solely on economic appeal to oems. That means msft to get ahead of this better start offering price concessions or face an even worse outcome. I like my chances here. But I am usually early....
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
I have been consuming media in a purely digital fashion since it was feasible. Ive tried just about everything over the last five years to get to that pure digital set up.
I am firm believer in the shift to digital for all movies, but I don't share the same view with respect to netflix's role. Without the DVD, vas, or value of live tv advertising window the content owners need to replace a ton of revenue. If the online content pay window turns into a way around cable, live tv, instant movie rentals or purchases, the industry is screwed. What stars licensed for 30mm may now cost 300 and thats assuming they want to go this direction.
On the flip side bolting on apps and mobile ways to access your content isn't exactly prohibitive for an hbo if it's what they need to do to keep their subscribers.
And of course you ignored the whole issue I raised with respect to intermingled ownership. Content is already owned by other distributors. And you ignored the fact that bundling is how carriers expect to make money. If you start dropping the tv package what do you think will happen to the Internet bill.
Netflix is not going out of business as long as you are happy to use it as a complment with other forms of consumption otherwise the content owners will push them back into tv land window. You remember how long it took for a major blockbuster to make it onto network tv? The owners of content will figure out pretty quickly what window netflix needs to remain in and what it will cost to preserve the value of higher margin early window rentals and sales. It's a zero sum game.
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
You made my argument for me and came to a different conclusion. USPS continues to mantain a level of service that is unsustainable without access to subsidized borrowing facilities. The unfunded liabilities are the biggest problem, followed by unprofitable lines. They will require a taxpayer bailout. So, just because they have not received taxpayer money money for years(i think 1982) doesn't meant they are not benefiting from a subsidy. I understand the amtrak esque argument you are making here, but that does not change the fact that as a private enterprise the quality of service would have been forced to come down and most likely the cost would also have had to go up.
And i don't think you are thinking this through. When i lived in NYC, i needed two seconds to walk to the blockbuster and look around for a film. Netflix initially did the most damage to the blockbuster model in those areas where mail in truly was the most convenient. That was stage one. Once those chains started losing customers the rest of the business started suffering. That allowed netflix to continue hammering away on price. Now imagine how things would have played out if the usps was delivering mail only 4times a week or charging a surcharge to customers in sparsely populated areas. The brick and mortar stores would have retained some competitive edge to slow the mail in internet competition down and potentially more time to respond.
But with the usps having seemingly unlimited access to funds from the federal finance bank that didn't happen. Nflx took advantage, blockbuster went bust, and the USPS most likely will need a taxpayer bailout sometime in the very immediate future.
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
Switched to NFLX the minute kozmo shutdown. Loved it. But it was different then, as i was literally just using it for renting. Got more hooked on on-demand services from cable until they started screwing with what was available and when.....
now i live abroad and thus cant access and have no practical use for the site
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
So you replaced your whole cable subscription or just hbo? If its the latter you are proving my point. You wont be able to "replace pay tv" with netflix as the moview studios dont want that, and furthermore content like entourage, true blood, how to make it in america..etc is owned and created by the subs you are dumping. So, if you are a content creator you need to ask yourself do i just create and licensce to these guys or do i just hire a cdn and allow my current sub base to do precisely the same thing by downloading an app? If its the former you need to make exactly as much money as you thought you'd make under the latter scenario. So, what will nflx have to pay to truely give you the replacement option? The answer is probably way too much, but its further complicated by the fact that the content owners like hbo understand that if they do give them the content which people already demand from them, they risk commoditizing that content over the next few years. A short-term move with long-term consequences.
Like i said the "free-era" is over. If you kil yourl hbo sub, expect hbo and the likes to find a way to remind you that you lost access to their great content. Then expect complaints down the road about why we don't get xyz at home from your family when it costs just $1-$3 more a month.
You strike me as a renter who has just been enjoying streaming. Do you think that netflix can continue supporting a mail in distribution model and licensing content at high costs? To rent new releases you will need to go elsewhere....that is assuming the industry can preserve this whole "window" concept with all the time shifting going on. My view is they will at least try to preserve it because of the margins, and that means taking a very careful approach when it comes to nflx.
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
It borrows from the federal financing bank which is under the us treasury. Discounted borrowing rates just like many other Gre's. I'd like to think that after this financial crisis some people can figure out that a subsidy....direct or indirect....is still a subsidy. If it was private, the rates it would charge would be higher and the delivery schedule would be reduced. That is a no brainer. And that would have meant less of an advantage for any online firm exploiting their loss making model.
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
The tremendous overlap in content ownership and distribution is a limiting factor. Why did com cast try to buy Disney? Why have they bought a large stake in NBC universal? If content rights are transferred to an online player it requires forgoing a cable, phone, or satellite carrier(assuming exclusivity). That means outbidding. If I own content I have an incentive to allow several players to control several different windows. It's not complicated. Netflix has a role as long as they don't get too ambitious. That's not how the stock is trading. Its not a crox or a bib, but it's also not the itunes or price line of film and television.
The Upcoming Verdict on Arena's Obesity Drug [View article]
Quite a biased take. The stock doubled after the vvus news for no reason other than hype about the safety profile. In that time they reset warrants and paid back Deerfield 60mm with and equity offering. Nothing in the FDA documents was a shock to me yesterday other than maybe the news on the cancer risk which was so effectively kept quite by those who benefited from keeping it quiet. Otherwise we all knew the fda was facing a challenge here of a drug that looks like a repeat of the meridia situation and thus likely to not make it through even though it passed the minimum efficacy bar.
Not a single thing happened post vvus that would have led you to believe arna would double before the FDA vote and yet it did. Yet here you are arguing that fear caused yesterday's drop. The stock instantly gapped down once the documents were posted. What fear?
Arena’s Lorqess: A Market Size Analysis [View article]
It's a conspiracy that the drug doesn't take any meaningful weight off.
It's a conspiracy that the FDA has been screwed so many times by weight loss pills that end up taking off less weight and causing more problems than the clinical trials showed that they actually feel they need to play it safe.
It's a conspiracy that the drug could increase the risk of cancer while causing you to lose eight pounds.
The sad thing is this company took a lot of people for a ride. Their largest investor earned a return before the panel even met by getting mgmt to dump equity on suckers.
Whatever the panel says this drug is not getting approved. I kind of hope they vote yes just so that this trade can be repeated in a month.
Microsoft: The Big Short [View article]
Microsoft: The Big Short [View article]
As I expected most people think I am predicting the end of the company. Yet my argument calls for crack in the armor manifesting itself over the next 15 months. The type of crack that causes pm's building a 10yr model to conclude that this is not a cheap stock and that several years of sequentially declining sales and margins are staring it in the face unless something miraculous happens
Microsoft: The Big Short [View article]
Microsoft: The Big Short [View article]
Microsoft: The Big Short [View article]
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
I am firm believer in the shift to digital for all movies, but I don't share the same view with respect to netflix's role. Without the DVD, vas, or value of live tv advertising window the content owners need to replace a ton of revenue. If the online content pay window turns into a way around cable, live tv, instant movie rentals or purchases, the industry is screwed. What stars licensed for 30mm may now cost 300 and thats assuming they want to go this direction.
On the flip side bolting on apps and mobile ways to access your content isn't exactly prohibitive for an hbo if it's what they need to do to keep their subscribers.
And of course you ignored the whole issue I raised with respect to intermingled ownership. Content is already owned by other distributors. And you ignored the fact that bundling is how carriers expect to make money. If you start dropping the tv package what do you think will happen to the Internet bill.
Netflix is not going out of business as long as you are happy to use it as a complment with other forms of consumption otherwise the content owners will push them back into tv land window. You remember how long it took for a major blockbuster to make it onto network tv? The owners of content will figure out pretty quickly what window netflix needs to remain in and what it will cost to preserve the value of higher margin early window rentals and sales. It's a zero sum game.
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
And i don't think you are thinking this through. When i lived in NYC, i needed two seconds to walk to the blockbuster and look around for a film. Netflix initially did the most damage to the blockbuster model in those areas where mail in truly was the most convenient. That was stage one. Once those chains started losing customers the rest of the business started suffering. That allowed netflix to continue hammering away on price. Now imagine how things would have played out if the usps was delivering mail only 4times a week or charging a surcharge to customers in sparsely populated areas. The brick and mortar stores would have retained some competitive edge to slow the mail in internet competition down and potentially more time to respond.
But with the usps having seemingly unlimited access to funds from the federal finance bank that didn't happen. Nflx took advantage, blockbuster went bust, and the USPS most likely will need a taxpayer bailout sometime in the very immediate future.
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
now i live abroad and thus cant access and have no practical use for the site
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
Like i said the "free-era" is over. If you kil yourl hbo sub, expect hbo and the likes to find a way to remind you that you lost access to their great content. Then expect complaints down the road about why we don't get xyz at home from your family when it costs just $1-$3 more a month.
You strike me as a renter who has just been enjoying streaming. Do you think that netflix can continue supporting a mail in distribution model and licensing content at high costs? To rent new releases you will need to go elsewhere....that is assuming the industry can preserve this whole "window" concept with all the time shifting going on. My view is they will at least try to preserve it because of the margins, and that means taking a very careful approach when it comes to nflx.
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
Netflix: This Stock's Story Is Over [View article]
The Upcoming Verdict on Arena's Obesity Drug [View article]
Not a single thing happened post vvus that would have led you to believe arna would double before the FDA vote and yet it did. Yet here you are arguing that fear caused yesterday's drop. The stock instantly gapped down once the documents were posted. What fear?
Arena’s Lorqess: A Market Size Analysis [View article]
It's a conspiracy that the FDA has been screwed so many times by weight loss pills that end up taking off less weight and causing more problems than the clinical trials showed that they actually feel they need to play it safe.
It's a conspiracy that the drug could increase the risk of cancer while causing you to lose eight pounds.
The sad thing is this company took a lot of people for a ride. Their largest investor earned a return before the panel even met by getting mgmt to dump equity on suckers.
Whatever the panel says this drug is not getting approved. I kind of hope they vote yes just so that this trade can be repeated in a month.