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Akram's Razor  

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  • Netflix: Being Right For All The Wrong Reasons [View article]
    Don't have to sell me. Like I said the value proposition is great. What has changed though is their return on that. Hbo doesn't have to improve as its economics are well established and it makes very good money of its own productions.

    As for the fixed cost comments, you should read the first ever Netflix note i wrote because that is where i disagree big time. This is not an arbitrage like the billion dollar a year losing USPS provided them with. Comcast is infrastructure, content, and distirbution. If anything the cable guys will spin out the infrastructure and then double and triple the direct access cost. These are for profit enterprises. If they start losing subs because of a netflix they can do that. But really the bigger concern is youtube which is both free riding on that and commoditizing content. Ultimately netflix is no different than what my souped up comcast on demand was when they first rolled it out and where offering everything. That changed very quickly, and my guess is that had something to do with them and the content owners agreeing it was in all their interests to keep creating windows. Netflix faces the same issue. There is no youtube subscrition version or itunes subscription channel because the content owners are wary of these giants models. They don't want one or two mass volume guys who will grind pricing down. That is not their business. This is precisely why cable came along.
    Feb 2, 2012. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Being Right For All The Wrong Reasons [View article]
    lol. Thanks! Though keeping with the theme of the article one might want to check out the editors before reading too much into that ratio:)
    Feb 2, 2012. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Being Right For All The Wrong Reasons [View article]
    I agree with you on the value proposition for the consumer. Free trials, no contract, low price, on demand, portable, and watchable on just about any device. Still, thats not the debate around the stock. I was a big user back in the day, and the service was fantastic. I swore by it and used it all the time, but that didn't do shareholders any good. Netflix came in at the lowest possible point you can to play this game. That is going to be more and more of a problem because they are the definition of a pure play distributor.

    If you are willing to accept that netflix is a channel for old reruns at a nice price point then it really becomes no different than the current cable channels that do the same thing accept instead of paying comcast for a base package and adding starz and encore for 8 bucks a month, you pay comcast or verizon for your internet connection and add netflix. problem is the rerun watching business doesn't exactly offer you much room for pricing power
    Feb 2, 2012. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Being Right For All The Wrong Reasons [View article]
    lol. very well put. you know sometimes i like to think how i would have played it in his shoes. I still firmly believe he should have made a content acquisition like lionsgate or done a huge equity raise at the 250+ and gotten a little crazy over content production. I would have also taken a different approach to international expansion. Though hindsight is 20/20
    Feb 2, 2012. 09:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Netflix On A Suicide Mission? [View article]
    NRK commisioned this with netflix and a german distributor. So in norway it airs on nrk. Netflix is just the US distributor. I think you will see more and more of this type of stuff with youtube eventually getting really involved in the space.
    Jan 31, 2012. 05:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Netflix CEO Reed Hastings And CFO David Wells Serious? [View article]
    yea...i disregarded that one....another nut job.
    Jan 29, 2012. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Netflix On A Suicide Mission? [View article]
    I disagree Rocco this is where you step in again if you are a bear. There has been absolutely no compelling reason to stake a short position in the name since the q3 implosion. It's actually been frustrating because it makes the stock useless other than tactically trading it for short squeezes and what not. Personally, I have been waiting for nflx, opentable, and a few other momos to have a move like this to make them compelling short candidates again. You can simply wait and hope the market provides you with another great opportunity to levg any accumulated knowledge you have on a stock or group of stocks. Nflx is officially there.
    Jan 28, 2012. 02:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Netflix On A Suicide Mission? [View article]
    "It is also possible that the much over-ballyhooed success of the company, had it not been overly hyped, might not have scared the bejesus out of the studious and caused the backlash that turned partners in the industry into rivals."

    Now that is a brilliant observation that I completely agree with.
    Jan 28, 2012. 09:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Netflix On A Suicide Mission? [View article]
    Look dangdang is up 100% and Renn 70% this month, and as far as I am concerned those are not even businesses. So, Don't bother with the analysis of this nflx nonsense. You are better off attributing this move the facebook ipo anticipation than earnings.
    Jan 27, 2012. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Netflix On A Suicide Mission? [View article]
    solar stocks, shld, european banks, and all the china net stocks have had similar run in Jan. It was a good month to buy the dogs of 2011. Add in sentiment at one extreme and a ceo like hastings who is definitely watching the streets numbers and thanks to accounting flexibility when it comes to content recognition can beat them no problem once he gets to reset the base and you have a perfect short squeeze. Nothing else cooking here. I found the quarterly report to be pretty much what you would expect. In fact, I was surprised they are still losing paying subs in streaming at this point.

    Seems way too many bulls just think this will be bought out, but I don't see how the problems with that have changed. Anyone buying netflix with deep pockets will need to expect to immediately be squeezed by content owners for even more money. You get users but you also get greedy paranoid hollywood which is being very smart about how it let's global tech platforms access their content.

    I really think the only story here is that as far as nflx is concerned streaming vs everything else will never be what dvd mail in was to dvd rental. There is no arbitrage for them to exploit.
    Jan 27, 2012. 12:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Come Netflix's Angry Shareholders [View article]
    "You didn’t lose any money unless you were dumb enough to sell your shares at the bottom."

    Umm, Netflix shares were 150-300 for 11 straight months. Plenty of people lost money and are still losing money that did not sell at the bottom.

    As for your assessment of NFLX management, I would argue you are completely missing the point. People shorting the stock had focused on the inherent flaws in the model. One of those flaws was the price point of the service relative to the rising cost structure. Criticism had focused on how nflx mgmt intended too offset this. One key point was that they would need to raise avg rev per subscriber which would likely signficantly impact sub growth. Yet, mr hastings argued in his blog post that they simply could pass on content, and that no piece of content was a must have. I for one think you can make a convincing argument that nflx senior management had planned to take a price increase from the start of the year(i'm sure there are emails on the matter), and just decided to delay the announcement to coincide more in line with future higher cost content deals. When you guide margins for the year you must be accounting for this, and thats were you can pick a bone with them. You could also argue that the dvd spinoff had more to do with content negotiations as it is literally the only practical explanation for why you'd cause your customers the inconvenience of needing two accounts. You do it so when you license content you are billed on the streaming only subs and not the total subs many of which may or may not use streaming. That is material business model type stuff that mr hastings was shrugging off in dec/jan of last year. So, if he is selling stock while mgmt is internally discussing these issues yet not externally disclosing or worse downplaying them only to spring them later on; i think the class of investors has a right to know.
    Jan 20, 2012. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dangdang: Like Rolling Back Time To Buy Amazon At $6 [View article]
    Ceo and his wife are completely out to lunch. When I saw them on tv I ran from this stock. It's no amazon, and never will be. As for renren, it's another joke copycat company with no future. The only difference is that they are sitting on so much cash thanks to all the generous fools on the planet willing to fund hype that they can literally do whatever they want. In china, the only internet play I'd buy for growth is sina and even they have issues when it comes to mgmt destroying shareholder value. But at least they demonstrate innovation when it comes to copying as well as execution. After that, the big boys of alibaba, baidu, and tencent should continue to rule.
    Jan 18, 2012. 12:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tebowing The S&P 500 [View article]
    The author was simply having some fun with Tebow mania, and the fact that it coincided with a bottom in the market. He really didn't give much thought to who would be reading this and whether or not they have heard of the NFL, Tebow, or the Broncos.

    But I agree, it is utter nonsense. Then again so is astrology, triangles, rulers, waves, and a whole host of other nonsensical things used to explain the movement of stocks.
    Jan 17, 2012. 07:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Altucher's Bull: 'I Could See, But Now Am Blind' [View article]
    here is a place that has been estimating m3 data since 2006 largely based on the still reported component data
    Jan 9, 2012. 09:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Altucher's Bull: 'I Could See, But Now Am Blind' [View article]
    'anonymous kid from Dubai'

    First, it was my anonymity. Then my anonymity with my current geographic location. Then you made me a kid. What's your problem with Dubai? And do you not like kids? Adults who lash out at kids online are a danger to society. Maybe we should start monitoring you. Why did you pick 14? Is it a special number? Are you a registered party member? Is that why you invested everything you had in RINO?

    ...see it really is easy to play your game

    And what track record do you have? Don't remember ever seeing your hedge fund's performance data released anywhere. Your track record is what you say in the press which is always bullish and focused on equities. To say anything conclusive can be drawn from it is ridiculous. You have been abysmal on the macro since i have seen you talking about it since 2007. You are on the other hand a much more prudent stock picker when you are not busy looking for pure spec which seems to be your hobby off choice. However, when you seem to be really thinking it through your picks are usually more risk/reward balanced.That being said i will always view you in a different light from now and on. You are immature and exhibit the type of behavior i have the least respect for in any facet of life. Changed my whole opinion of you and it took no more than a couple of comments.
    Jan 9, 2012. 08:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment