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Akram's Razor  

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  • Copper Producers Could Still Have Long Way To Fall [View article]
    How is it a put down? When you write i'm thinking waaaay too hard on this one to conclude your response which really did nothing if you ask me to address the basic points being made by me but instead attempted to make it seem like my analysis was all for not and that simply...the world is growing and copper will always rise is enough of an explanation its fair game to shoot back....you dismissed these points as if they were nothing..

    1)Financial demand trumps industrial demand in copper
    2) The chinese financing scheme with respect to copper is unique and quite speculative
    3) china is entering a capex hangover which has now been postponed 2 times by stimulus.....the only thing for sure about it is that it will be painful for commodities


    make no mistake this is what matters for the price...and the price is headed much lower...i threw in hts as a variable for down the road

    but then again your response is filled with gems like

    "But we're a long way from that point; the transition isn't going to happen overnight; investors will have be plenty of time to exit copper and move into more profitable ventures."- history has proven that the EXACT opposite is the norm...you dont get plenty of time....ask the bullls in natgas who said shale was a long way from affecting long term prices

    "Who says the "boom" in China is over? The band is just warming up, LOL!!!! They're going through a healthy economic slowdown, not a Great Depression. That's probably a good thing long term."

    Comments like this are a joke. There is nothing healthy about a debt fueled capex binges coming to a close, especially if you have posponed them a few times with huge stimulus, unless bankrutpcies to remove excess capacity are allowed and losses are recognized by banks. What will happen here is banks will roll everyone over and more money will be thrown at keeping weak hands afloat....this will be a major drag on the economy as it has been everywhere else it has happened in history

    "These new emerging technologies will certainly place a limit on future copper prices to some degree, but I can't see it going back to $1-$2/lb. There will always be plenty of industrial demand out there to keep a floor under the metal. What that floor will be is anyone's guess." Can't see it going back to $1-$2 or no clue where the floor will be? Pick one. I also love people who say things like 'there will always be plenty of industrial demand out there to keep a floor'. If I had a nickel for every time someone said that and then was promptly proven wrong I'd have a lot of nickels.


    Dec 31, 2011. 02:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    unfunded liabilities can be erased with a pen stroke and my point on debt service is that stock can still rise while it falls....america has a ways to go before treasuries collapse...focus on japan for now
    Dec 30, 2011. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    Another 1% decline in long rates and you save 150billion. Point is the US is far better off than most western countries.
    Dec 30, 2011. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman: Keynes was right. "2011 was a year in which our political elite obsessed over short-term deficits that aren’t actually a problem and, in the process, made the real problem - a depressed economy and mass unemployment - worse... Washington may be obsessed with the deficit, but financial markets are, if anything, signaling that we should borrow more."  [View news story]
    What's amazing is it is the same nonsense every time out of him. Cut in a boom. Problem is what happens is in a boom nobody cuts, and then in a slump we create ten new programs. When the boom comes they dont get phased out. Then there is another bust and we create more. This continues until a serious crash forces the issue to be confronted at which point they want to spend even more. And if the spending doesn't work then it was wrong or insufficient.

    And that isn't even the most entertaining part. They can never agree on what constitutes a recovery. If cuts start too soon, then you jumped the gun and caused the economy to unecessarily falter.
    Dec 30, 2011. 06:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    Japan is over 200% debt to gdp. And the difference between US and Japan as far as holders is about 20%. US debt is about 71% held domestically versus 93% for Japan. But remember this US households have about a 2% weighting to treasuries. Double that with the aging baby boomers and things change very quickly. Us also still stands to benefit from falling debt service despite rising stock due to rates falling. Japan is past that point. So, US treasury pessimism is a little early if you ask me. Almost every developed country has less attractive sovgn paper.
    Dec 30, 2011. 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    Dollar will have a good year. World wont be trading dollar less anytime soon.
    Dec 30, 2011. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    us debt service as % of revenue is less than 10% while japan's is now north of 40%. Japan rates have bottomed....US still falling.....America is not as bad as you think
    Dec 30, 2011. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    there a bunch that are listed with sabic being the biggest and then there are jv's with some internationals
    Dec 30, 2011. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman: Keynes was right. "2011 was a year in which our political elite obsessed over short-term deficits that aren’t actually a problem and, in the process, made the real problem - a depressed economy and mass unemployment - worse... Washington may be obsessed with the deficit, but financial markets are, if anything, signaling that we should borrow more."  [View news story]
    He will never quit....http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 30, 2011. 05:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    Believe me I am with you on the bearishness, just have learned that there is a level of dynamism out of most US mnc's that you just don't see anywhere else. I still see a tough road ahead, but i've learned to be less stubborn about it. I expect 2012 from an earnings standpoint to be challenging, but do i see a sharp drop off? not so sure....in 2008 that was something i could tell you i was certain about.
    Dec 30, 2011. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    look at the population of the gcc....it made no sense to build refiners out here until recently as it was cheaper to import. if you had a couple 100k living in the desert with few cars why would you build the worlds largest refiners? Interestingly enough though if you spend time in saudi you will see that it is now a petchem monster....global production capacity has really shifted out here since its effectively subsidized with cheap natgas to make everything from polypropelene to ammonia....though i do wonder whether the natgas boom in the states will reverse that trend
    Dec 30, 2011. 05:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    Can't really agree with that. What is it a trillion and half between China and the oil exporters....the US markets have so little to do with the US economy anymore..the sp500 is just one giant MNC..why do you think they had such a good year? Dollar weakness combined with ruthless cost cutting led to quick and sharp earnings rebound. This year will be more challenging. The dollar tailwind wont be there for the topline and there is not much left to take out bottom. Still engine america is impressive....unlike japan....when american companies hit a rough patch they instantly realign costs to stay competitive.......now that may not be good news if you are an american looking for a cushy job....but if you are a shareholder its tough to complain....us mnc companies will do whatever it takes to stay ahead....
    Dec 30, 2011. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    technology yes but they've been out here for 40 years...can't really call them foreigners anymore
    Dec 30, 2011. 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From ATP Oil And Gas [View article]
    headache stock....bought some after bp spill....then took a closer look and decided it was a fantastic short....shorted it....and then it took off again....looks like this is no place for equity holders....could be a zero
    Dec 30, 2011. 04:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investments In China Will Eventually Be Worthless [View article]
    interesting little convo between you two.....foreigners definitely not bringing the capital out here......labor needs to be imported....expats milk it...but they are not calling the shots
    Dec 30, 2011. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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