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Akram's Razor

 
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  • Commvault: Red Flags Galore [View article]
    Nice! Two first comment posters here. For the record, I was long cvlt for a long time on that thesis. Worked out well, but its still independent. At these levels a suitor wont materialize. But if it took a hit, obviously that becomes a lot more interesting.
    Oct 30 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commvault: Red Flags Galore [View article]
    No thats not it. Shows suspect earnings as it unusually large draw down of software deferred revenue which produced a big eps beat. Ent soft companies have some signifcant leeway in this regard, and usually no big deal. Stands out more here because of way he manages the street. The takeaway is they underhired, undermarketed, and failed to close deals in line with their expectations.
    Oct 30 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: The DV Market Just Got More Crowded [View article]
    And by the way there is a lot of the crap out there right now which frankly i am quite happy to see stay up. I have a gem in tech which is simply the most ridiculous of all of these, and when i am done with my research you will see why.
    Oct 30 06:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: The DV Market Just Got More Crowded [View article]
    MSTR up 20% on 3% growth. Data 2% on 90% growth. Hopefully you lemons figure out that the explanation for that is one is trading at 5bil with 200mil in revenue and the other is at 1bil with 600mil. Tableau is great, but this growth rate goes with a 2bil max mkt cap company right now or maybe 3bil if you really want to stretch. So until you see $50 which is 3.7bil short with your eyes closed.
    Oct 30 04:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: A Perfect Short With A Catalyst To Boot [View article]
    Are you serious? I opened puts and short position north of 70. And their earnings were not a surprise to me. I know how this process works. You clearly don't. Did they beat and file a secodnary? Was the stock weak in the weeks ahead of earnings? Seriously, what a joke. I am used to being wrong in this business, but in this case i literally handed you the script. Anyway, I could care less as my fund and personal book is doing great. But to call me out on this is ludicrous. Scroll up to the comments and read how I said QLIK would miss. But this is not about whose winning, its about whose priced in lala land.

    They guided you flat and have been growing sequentially at 20%. You really beleived that with their conference and ipo that they would go from 20% to flat? On a side note, no doubt they are doing great, but had you bought mstr which is barely growing and reported same time you'd have had a 20% pop vs basically nothing on 90% yr/yr growth. You know why? Because the ipo has left virtually nothing on the table for growth chasers. This should be 2billion dollars max at this stage and with this exact growth rate because of nature of industry they are in. So, we are about 3billion away from there which is $40 a share.
    Oct 30 04:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • F5 Networks: Multiple Contraction Storm Coming [View article]
    You should ask me what to buy before you ask me what to sell. Also, i have zero clue on your invesmtnet profile. Your the second person today who has contacted me, and who bought just crazy options. Why would you buy 72.50? The goal on stuff like this is to be deep in money and get levg post iv drop, and not to buy crazy optionality.
    Oct 29 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: The DV Market Just Got More Crowded [View article]
    Lesson to all longs here. Learn your event relevance in stocks that just went public. Guidance was for flat q/q which was a joke. They 'beat' by 20% and you have nothing to show for it and a stock 20% off high. This is because you bought into a bubble ipo valuation that is completely divorced from its news flow.
    Oct 29 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commvault: Putting The Sell-Side On Notice [View article]
    http://yhoo.it/1g9QEv3

    Since when was being barely 10% of alltime high and at a peg of 4.5 a great entry point on a noisy messy quarter?

    These jokers never learn. Good to see hammer using the 10% stop buyback today. Will make the stock an evene asier short back into the mid 60's
    Oct 29 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commvault: Putting The Sell-Side On Notice [View article]
    This is called missing and using accounting to make your already low-low-low bar
    Oct 29 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commvault: Putting The Sell-Side On Notice [View article]
    There you go. They just acknowledged sucking in some unusually large deffered software license revenue. Nice way to hit number in weak environment and explains the margin beat.
    Oct 29 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commvault: Putting The Sell-Side On Notice [View article]
    So we go from 8% deferred revenue growth in this period last yr to flat. Nice suck in of deferred software revenue to beat margins as well as scaling back spend. Typical low quality managed quarter. Let's see if wall street wakes up.
    Oct 29 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: The DV Market Just Got More Crowded [View article]
    Retail investors don't typically understand how this process works. This is why in the original note I pointed out that they would file a secondary and that the you basically had a free ride to take advantage of that. As an underwriter, if i am hired to do this I need to 'manage' the stock. It's effectively a continuation of the ipo process. So, short stock into event(earnings and in this case an expected beat), let it pop back on event, and then price immediately on the back of that news.
    In data's case, this process was pretty easy because the float out there is tiny, but it is also critical because the valuation is full on in bubble land due to the scarcity.

    But retail is typically ignorant, and thinks an ipo company is no different than an established one. Thus, they read headlines and react which is what underwriters bank on. In this case, they guided for flat sequential growth this quarter. At their growth rate anything less than 58mil would have been literally an immediate cause for alarm. At a 2bil mkt cap they need this exact growth rate to remain 'expensive/loved'. So, you bank on the fact that public databases don't include your fully diluted share count, and that many people think the headlines being good are all that matters.

    Now someone like me looks to take advantage of this. I want the stock more liquid because i know that no matter what happens with the business i will see it 2billion lower. It's really simple supply and demand. And honestly, unless you have had a big relative to total mkt value position in an illiquid stock and seen what happens when you try to convert whats on paper into cash, you probably don't get this. I am now simply waiting for the registration to become effective to reshort what i closed. As far as i am concerned, the higher the stock the better.
    Oct 29 03:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: A Perfect Short With A Catalyst To Boot [View article]
    I always find it interesting that people who get into recent ipo's think that the same precise drivers for long listed companies apply. This has played out almost to the tee as a said it would. They announced earnings and immediately filed for a secondary to manage the lockup. What is going on here is simply a continuation of the ipo process. There is now an underwriter incentive to earn their fees which has been going on into earnings and one of the drivers of stock weakness. You really think this companies bar was flat sequential growth as they guided? I had them north of 60mil this quarter in my model. Now they get to price a secondary into a pop. But reality is the price depth on the name sucks so with the 13mil shares that start trading after tmrw and the secondary you will have a nice steady stream of volume uptick to get to equilibirum which i still expect to be in the low to mid 50's.
    Oct 29 01:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: The DV Market Just Got More Crowded [View article]
    Irrelevant. I had them at 63mil vs their ridiculous flat sequential guidance. And they pushed up the lockup for some shares. Still a 2bil company in my book as long as it can keep growing fast. So, at 4-5 im content staying short, its a no brainer. But then again i was early and had the luxury of exiting a nice option position already.
    Oct 28 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tweet Tweet: #IPO#Valuation#Sina [View article]
    This is how you manage an ipo. It won't price at 11. Range will go up this week, and then it will price above range. Also, add in all excluded but way in the money shares and you are already talking a billion or so more.
    Oct 27 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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