What To Do With Panera Bread's Stock [View article]
I did short cmg at $430 last year and covered close to $300. And I see your point here it is still much more pricey, but margin wise and growth wise i still prefer cmg. I think panera will start to struggle this year and I am much more confident in how I will value that stock over cmg now. And if i was to go long here I prefer bwld as a play on metrics improving in 2013 over 2012 and the market rewarding that somewhat generously at some point, and also wouldn't rule out a go private for them.
STEC: Trading Near Cash Value, 140% Upside Potential By 2014 [View article]
Thanks, first interesting trade idea i've gotten from SA in a while. I know stec well just have not paid much attention to it in a while. This mgmt team has little credibility in my mind and royally screwed up execution of their ssd dream of dominance. But you are right at tangible book here this a buy right now.
LinkedIn's Honeymoon Is Officially Over [View article]
subscription companies that renew annual subscriptions ....they take in cash but need to recognize revenue over the year so its basically their backlog....it will lead a slow down in actual revenue if renewals or new subs decline so better inidcator of health of business then reported revenue
LinkedIn's Honeymoon Is Officially Over [View article]
You get a seasonal spike year end on renewals which was another reason i was reluctant to short it though really less relevant considering the sector element being the main driver. And from a trading standpoint i would not short it here...that is ultimate retail sucker move. I actually bought way out of the money calls and am betting this follows through 10%-15% more and fast. My only concern would be market correction and even then not so much here. Anyway speculative trade, but historically these work well and most traders are just reluctant to do them because of the one day spike syndrome which attracts those with an impulse to short for a quick buck.
What To Do With Panera Bread's Stock [View article]
Sometimes it is a lot easier to make that 25% then go after irrationally priced growth. In fact, 90% of the time its a lot easier. Because the first hiccup and this goes to 15x. While what causes a momo growth to sink can be much more elusive.
LinkedIn's Honeymoon Is Officially Over [View article]
Razor is long gone from being short here....was even contemplating a long into earnings on both it and opentable......but chose to pass. I think i'v more than proven a willingness to turn to the other side with the likes of deck,fb,, anr, apkt, rimm, nflx etc. I don't get obsessed short like most people tend to do. Difference with linkedin is there has been no collapse to attract my usual flip but as internet reflated over past three months this thing became less and less attractive as a short. One reason i was willing to contemplate a long beyond the 50% rise in fb shares since i wrote my linkedin note was the twitter valuation of recently. As much as i doubt linkedin can morph into an amazon story with new vertical after new vertical, I look at its mkt cap now and say 20billion looks more likely here based on where everything else is. Basically, you are better off short amazon or fb at these levels.
What To Do With Panera Bread's Stock [View article]
They are back end loading and industry headwinds are mounting. Comps so far tracking below range which they are attributing to weather. These are standard red flags. They look like they are exactly one report away from a downward revision/miss. And as far as multiples market never works that way. Once growth rate starts to fall off rather steeply re-rating in stock multiple is much faster and less forgiving. No doubt its a solid casual dining brand, but this is a short here and not a buy.
What To Do With Panera Bread's Stock [View article]
This reads like a press clipping. They missed on revenue, missed on net income, and reported comps of 5.1% against a range of 5-6%. The 1c eps beat was courtesy of buying back shares. Overall this was a weak report relative to how panera has performed. And what sharply higher are you talking about? Shares are up 2.9%. I have followed this name for ages and will start shorting it here. They are going to go from near 30% bottom line growth to the mid to high teens this year. At 20x forward you are overpaying now. This is a $130 stock that should e bought below $110 if given the opportunity. Up here it is a no brainer short.
Buy Acme Packet; It's Mellanox In Reverse [View article]
This will trade over the offer as you can easily have a csco/oracle battle over the name similar to hp/dell with 3par. Basically,ask yourself is cisco willing to let oracle come into this space or better yet what price would they be willing to pay to keep them out.
Buy Acme Packet; It's Mellanox In Reverse [View article]
Nope....your numbers are wrong. Can i suggest spending ten minutes pulling up q's on edgar or the pr for earnings....saves time and headache. Non gaap guidance for year is 45c not quarter. ttm is 63c
Whole Foods Earnings Preview: Can This Premier Specialty Grocer's Incredible Growth Continue? [View article]
What To Do With Panera Bread's Stock [View article]
STEC: Trading Near Cash Value, 140% Upside Potential By 2014 [View article]
STEC: Trading Near Cash Value, 140% Upside Potential By 2014 [View article]
LinkedIn's Honeymoon Is Officially Over [View article]
......can't complain but welcome to speculationville......... to short the indices
LinkedIn's Honeymoon Is Officially Over [View article]
LinkedIn's Honeymoon Is Officially Over [View article]
What To Do With Panera Bread's Stock [View article]
LinkedIn's Honeymoon Is Officially Over [View article]
What To Do With Panera Bread's Stock [View article]
What To Do With Panera Bread's Stock [View article]
What To Do With Panera Bread's Stock [View article]
Buy Acme Packet; It's Mellanox In Reverse [View article]
Buy Acme Packet; It's Mellanox In Reverse [View article]
Buy Acme Packet; It's Mellanox In Reverse [View article]