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Akram's Razor  

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  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    I think if MW's is wrong here the reputational damage will be irreversible. Considering what he has built up, I do factor that into my analysis of the situation. As for the cash, bidu and sina have the 'luxury' of holding some cash in level 2 or even all of it. The point here is neither does that yet the company that shouldn't have the luxury of doing that is actually doing precisely that.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    As a side note, clearly a lot of people where burned here and understandbly are quite upset. You should be asking yourself whether this happened because of MW or because management made at least a few mistakes if not several.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    It's sad that some people have a hard time understanding what is an honest walk through of just why this was capable of happening. You think MW could have done this to Bidu or Sina(WHICH BTW I AM A WELL KNOW UBER BULL ON HERE). No they couldn't.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    It hurts your credibility that you don't understand that no business, let alone a high growth tech business with high carrier dso's shouldn't be caring about a few % incremental return versus having highly liquid cash on hand at all times. MW may be flat out wrong and even reckless in its comments, but there is no denying this is not 'PRUDENT' cash managment for any company let alone a young 'growth' story. Same goes for the buyback. I don't go long 50% plus revenue growth companies for share buybacks.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    Good, that is precisely what you should be doing, and more than happy to be long the stock if this is actually the case. As I stated in another comment, I would not short your stock here. However, there is no denying that there is a lot of 'confusion' regarding the secure nature of the product if bloomberg is getting third party paid reports that seem to support what MW put out there. As for everything else beyond the buyback, I have would be willing to discount out to being a fast growing business in china's wild west.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    A big five audited enron and then went down with it....sino had have countless chinese that says little to me. But like i said, my initial inclination is this is not a fraud, just a young weak internal controls company that is making many young/china company esque mistakes which typically dont fly in US market.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: A Neutral Observer's Take [View article]
    Like I said I have no position in this stock, and actually have been looking at is as a favour to some people long the stock, who can freely produce themselves if they want. I think the key takeaway here is that whatever one's view may be, the reason MW was able to impact this as they have are mgmt's and not MW's fault. I have longed several MW short's since Sino Forest, and did lose being short sped which had tons of red flags but ended up executing just fine and growing like a weed in its space. I posted this because I am at the end of the day curious how when all these coinicidental red flags pop up how they end up being reconciled. As someone who shorts quite often, I am naturally quite curious hear responses. But I assure you I am quite neutral regarding the outcome of all of this, and actually as I have some people i know long. Am pulling for them. But running this through my screener this is how i as someone with no position would view the stock. And while i have no real value to add as far as mw's allegations, I can tell you 100% the 'cheap/growth', buyback, cash positioning relative to stage of company, and comments/tone are things I firmly believe in and can cite countless examples over my trading career that make noticing them worthwhile.
    Nov 4, 2013. 10:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commvault: Red Flags Galore [View article]
    Also, the point was to be short the stock expecting this print. And when you short-sell, you learn over time how to manage bearish views on stocks with take out risk. I.e trading our event catalysts with options instead of simply being short. Broken business models you simply short and ignore timing, but robust models with 'valuation' issues you use optionality to manage exposure and leverage return. Then it is simply about getting the timing right. I came to this stock as a short after the q4 call. Shares were 85 when i started shorting. You know how i got there? Because i had listened to the previous 4 calls ahead of it just to gauge what a small enough shift in momentum to support a thesis would be. The idea is to use acquired knowledge of a business to its fullest in either direction. The move to 40-80 i missed because by definition i will miss these things because i'm wary of extremes. But having made money long the name I have enough of an understanding to know what 'transition'..'investm... do to operating momentum and headline news when a stock has been running for a while undisturbed. Did same thing with ffiv, and countless other solid tech names over the years. Great businesses can be priced 'badly'....and as far as short selling that is usually a lot easier than going after a bad business if you know what you are doing. Because at the end of the day bad businesses do attract a good deal of short-sellers which can make things a lot more difficult pricing wise. Is cvlt expensive next to data, now, splk, and countless it is damn cheap....but the measuring stick there right now is different...and that at the end of the day is what the market is all about.
    Nov 1, 2013. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • F5 Networks: Multiple Contraction Storm Coming [View article]
    There you go 100% return. Now take your profits despite my view as your options are a little to risky. U cud leave 20% of the position to see if it really rolls over between now and analyst day as internals for these stocks are starting an acclerated deterioration
    Nov 1, 2013. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • F5 Networks: Multiple Contraction Storm Coming [View article]
    I'd wait a few more days. The window against these stocks is strong. But yeah you shud have bought the 90's or 88's as i did
    Oct 30, 2013. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commvault: Red Flags Galore [View article]
    Nice! Two first comment posters here. For the record, I was long cvlt for a long time on that thesis. Worked out well, but its still independent. At these levels a suitor wont materialize. But if it took a hit, obviously that becomes a lot more interesting.
    Oct 30, 2013. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commvault: Red Flags Galore [View article]
    No thats not it. Shows suspect earnings as it unusually large draw down of software deferred revenue which produced a big eps beat. Ent soft companies have some signifcant leeway in this regard, and usually no big deal. Stands out more here because of way he manages the street. The takeaway is they underhired, undermarketed, and failed to close deals in line with their expectations.
    Oct 30, 2013. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: The DV Market Just Got More Crowded [View article]
    And by the way there is a lot of the crap out there right now which frankly i am quite happy to see stay up. I have a gem in tech which is simply the most ridiculous of all of these, and when i am done with my research you will see why.
    Oct 30, 2013. 06:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: The DV Market Just Got More Crowded [View article]
    MSTR up 20% on 3% growth. Data 2% on 90% growth. Hopefully you lemons figure out that the explanation for that is one is trading at 5bil with 200mil in revenue and the other is at 1bil with 600mil. Tableau is great, but this growth rate goes with a 2bil max mkt cap company right now or maybe 3bil if you really want to stretch. So until you see $50 which is 3.7bil short with your eyes closed.
    Oct 30, 2013. 04:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: A Perfect Short With A Catalyst To Boot [View article]
    Are you serious? I opened puts and short position north of 70. And their earnings were not a surprise to me. I know how this process works. You clearly don't. Did they beat and file a secodnary? Was the stock weak in the weeks ahead of earnings? Seriously, what a joke. I am used to being wrong in this business, but in this case i literally handed you the script. Anyway, I could care less as my fund and personal book is doing great. But to call me out on this is ludicrous. Scroll up to the comments and read how I said QLIK would miss. But this is not about whose winning, its about whose priced in lala land.

    They guided you flat and have been growing sequentially at 20%. You really beleived that with their conference and ipo that they would go from 20% to flat? On a side note, no doubt they are doing great, but had you bought mstr which is barely growing and reported same time you'd have had a 20% pop vs basically nothing on 90% yr/yr growth. You know why? Because the ipo has left virtually nothing on the table for growth chasers. This should be 2billion dollars max at this stage and with this exact growth rate because of nature of industry they are in. So, we are about 3billion away from there which is $40 a share.
    Oct 30, 2013. 04:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment