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Akram's Razor

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  • Commvault: Putting The Sell-Side On Notice [View article]
    http://yhoo.it/1g9QEv3

    Since when was being barely 10% of alltime high and at a peg of 4.5 a great entry point on a noisy messy quarter?

    These jokers never learn. Good to see hammer using the 10% stop buyback today. Will make the stock an evene asier short back into the mid 60's
    Oct 29 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commvault: Putting The Sell-Side On Notice [View article]
    This is called missing and using accounting to make your already low-low-low bar
    Oct 29 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commvault: Putting The Sell-Side On Notice [View article]
    There you go. They just acknowledged sucking in some unusually large deffered software license revenue. Nice way to hit number in weak environment and explains the margin beat.
    Oct 29 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commvault: Putting The Sell-Side On Notice [View article]
    So we go from 8% deferred revenue growth in this period last yr to flat. Nice suck in of deferred software revenue to beat margins as well as scaling back spend. Typical low quality managed quarter. Let's see if wall street wakes up.
    Oct 29 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: The DV Market Just Got More Crowded [View article]
    Retail investors don't typically understand how this process works. This is why in the original note I pointed out that they would file a secondary and that the you basically had a free ride to take advantage of that. As an underwriter, if i am hired to do this I need to 'manage' the stock. It's effectively a continuation of the ipo process. So, short stock into event(earnings and in this case an expected beat), let it pop back on event, and then price immediately on the back of that news.
    In data's case, this process was pretty easy because the float out there is tiny, but it is also critical because the valuation is full on in bubble land due to the scarcity.

    But retail is typically ignorant, and thinks an ipo company is no different than an established one. Thus, they read headlines and react which is what underwriters bank on. In this case, they guided for flat sequential growth this quarter. At their growth rate anything less than 58mil would have been literally an immediate cause for alarm. At a 2bil mkt cap they need this exact growth rate to remain 'expensive/loved'. So, you bank on the fact that public databases don't include your fully diluted share count, and that many people think the headlines being good are all that matters.

    Now someone like me looks to take advantage of this. I want the stock more liquid because i know that no matter what happens with the business i will see it 2billion lower. It's really simple supply and demand. And honestly, unless you have had a big relative to total mkt value position in an illiquid stock and seen what happens when you try to convert whats on paper into cash, you probably don't get this. I am now simply waiting for the registration to become effective to reshort what i closed. As far as i am concerned, the higher the stock the better.
    Oct 29 03:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: A Perfect Short With A Catalyst To Boot [View article]
    I always find it interesting that people who get into recent ipo's think that the same precise drivers for long listed companies apply. This has played out almost to the tee as a said it would. They announced earnings and immediately filed for a secondary to manage the lockup. What is going on here is simply a continuation of the ipo process. There is now an underwriter incentive to earn their fees which has been going on into earnings and one of the drivers of stock weakness. You really think this companies bar was flat sequential growth as they guided? I had them north of 60mil this quarter in my model. Now they get to price a secondary into a pop. But reality is the price depth on the name sucks so with the 13mil shares that start trading after tmrw and the secondary you will have a nice steady stream of volume uptick to get to equilibirum which i still expect to be in the low to mid 50's.
    Oct 29 01:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: The DV Market Just Got More Crowded [View article]
    Irrelevant. I had them at 63mil vs their ridiculous flat sequential guidance. And they pushed up the lockup for some shares. Still a 2bil company in my book as long as it can keep growing fast. So, at 4-5 im content staying short, its a no brainer. But then again i was early and had the luxury of exiting a nice option position already.
    Oct 28 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tweet Tweet: #IPO#Valuation#Sina [View article]
    This is how you manage an ipo. It won't price at 11. Range will go up this week, and then it will price above range. Also, add in all excluded but way in the money shares and you are already talking a billion or so more.
    Oct 27 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat In Amazon.com [View article]
    the argument would be that they are sacrificing gross margin....which can be viewed as reinvesting
    Oct 26 04:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat In Amazon.com [View article]
    I agree with just about everything you wrote, but my point is for someone recommending shorting the stock that doesn't fly. I short a lot, and have never thought to take a strategic short on amazon until i see evidence of a flop. I am watching the potential entry into phones closely as i think that will be a very bad move on their part. Cisco added 300 billion in froth in 199/2000 and then gave it all back in 2001 but with hardware spotting a investment cycle bust is a lot easier than figuring out when something like amazon will stumble on some new market entry(groceries, phones, etc)
    Oct 26 04:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat In Amazon.com [View article]
    Well, I could charge for shipping, sell less, and make a better margin. So, providing shipping for free is investment as it is margin sacrificed to take market share and put rsh/bks/bgp and whole list of others out of business. RD to make things like the kindle or fire which i will then sell at a loss is also an investment to acquire share and push my content plaform across. Once my competitors are gone i have pricing power. then someone has to come along and scale to my level to undercut which wont be easy. AWS is also a form of investment
    Oct 25 11:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: A Perfect Short With A Catalyst To Boot [View article]
    Look I expected them to miss, and obviously relatively speaking its cheap and just got a lot cheaper. But i am not much of a believer in owning a pure dv company. That's why i have been long tibx instead as a 'value' play and data short hedge. I think all this does is show how much better of a short data is even though i expect them to 'beat'. See, I think we are entering a phase were competition in this sector is going to get fierce, and thus pure plays with their crazy premium to more diversified analytics software companies are something you want to avoid.
    Oct 25 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat In Amazon.com [View article]
    In amazon's case I argue it has been as investment has destroyed competition. If the market rewards a strategy and you continually execute on it that is your measure so up until they fail product/expansion wise that is the game.
    Oct 25 09:27 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat In Amazon.com [View article]
    Simply looking at p/e is not analysis. I can tell you after many years of short selling that you need to have a thesis. Amazon has no earnings because they reinvest like crazy.(crm which was a favorite long of mine and then a favorite stock to make fun of because of stock option madness does the same) Their failure will be measured at the point that this reinvestment was simply not anywhere close to justifying the decision to run at tgt break even vs optimal mix or let's say profit maxmization because your growth options are virtually nil.When they enter into a market as the low cost scale guy and fail the stock will be punished.
    Oct 25 09:13 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau: A Perfect Short With A Catalyst To Boot [View article]
    What? Did somebody say diappointment quarter out of qlik......
    Oct 25 03:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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