You love the sell-\side bill......i could see Apple's bottom line down as much 20% yr/yr if they don't pull a rabbit out of the hat with the next iphone. Seeing galaxies everywhere i go now as well as a lot of nexus 4's and momentum keeps ramping for these phones so this is going to be a transitional year for apple without a doubt....they will probably blunt this with a big buyback at some point....but from 70% income growth last two years to negative this year is tough to argue with....they are just too iphone dependent and that is going to show in the numbers all year long
Actually yes....the enterprise would be worth zero...cash would be whole value.....i think that was his p\oint but he didnt explain it right.......should have added cash back to get to value of 380-400.
Umm this statement makes little sense. You can invest in a 500 mln usd company and watch it grow to 10 billion. If app\le buys the same company for 1billion and extracts 20billion in market value out of it that does nothing for you if ur holding app\le shares. There are actually very few things you can do to move the needle on a business this size....its more about sustaining then growing from here. The cash is a drag because figuring out where to channel it beyond dividends and buybacks is not easy. Huge acquistions are risky and also run into regulatory issues at this scale. Buy apple for yield and safety if you believe the iphone economics will hold up till something better arrives.
Apple Trading At 2.56x 2016 Cash Flow [View article]
It's where margins are heading that should concern you. They need a new high margin cash cow the likes of iphone which i'd argue is impossible to find.
Apple Trading At 2.56x 2016 Cash Flow [View article]
2016 huh? You know what can happen in 4 years in consumer gadgets? Forecasting 2yrs out for apple is next to impossible considering how reliant they have become on replacement cycles for consumer high tech gadget love. They are going to need to turn the smartphone into the genius phone now to avoid the commodization cycle that has begun in the space.
Even the best run companies go through phases when their stock frustrates. This is a company whose stock was up 70 ytd at one point and thats after already being the most valuable public corp on earth......chill out and accept the fact that this was bound to happen. At some point this will end but considering the run the stock could be dead money or an underperformer for 6 months and then snap back 30-40% once a new catalyst emerges
Sentiment broken stock and it started becoming obvious a month and a half ago....it is its own worst enemy right now because it simply isn't lving up to the high bar it has set for itself product wise...add in margin direction....internal upheavel....and a more competitive environment and you get a stock that is going to be a nightmare for valuation buyers until some new catalyst emerges. All this garbage about margin requierments and what not is simply an attempt to explain the seemingly unexplainable which is that this stock has lost its momentum and valuation is not going to be the reason it regains it.
4% decline and you'd think the world was ending by the coverage its getting today.....of course two or three more knucklehead upgrades....this is turning into the most predictable 'how is it so cheap' stock in tech trap i have seen in my entire trading career. Sentiment is broken on the name for now and that is seriously going to test anyone who showed up late to the party
My number one short position in large cap land is msft. You like most of the apple maniacs on here missed my point. If asked to choose between the owning msft the world's most valuable company in 1999 and Apple the worlds most valuable company today with no knowledge of the future i'd choose msft in 1999. As for apple penetration, I love my macbook and to be honest have been very surprised by the lack of what i thought would be much faster sales growth in that division. Say all you want, but this is still the iphone stock. If margins in that division really start to come off it will disporportionality impact profitability
Incorrect. My point is from a stock market perspective their ability to retain anything close to peak value is limited. I.e has coca cola lost 90% of its value? Mcdonalds? Walmart? Hermes?
There is another problem which i didn't really get into as I see it as a broader problem for platform companies and it is that their suppliers will ultimately want to be their competitors. And as the entire supply chain is in asia, the part of the world with the most expected growth and least respect for IP, I do worry about what the future holds. Apple could of course go the way of coca cola and start using its cash to vertically integrate before this risk become pervasive....question is will the chinese tolerate this....
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