Alan Brochstein

Shoe Carnival: No Party in 2007 - But Cheap

I just listened to the call. I think that the management team appears to be very thoughtful. While they have perhaps not been watching the big picture closely enough, they have made some organizational changes that should address it. One of the most interesting revelations is that their weakness in same-store-sales is primarily related to the absence of their traditionally strong ethnic customer base. As far as looking at the numbers, they are hurt to a great degree compared to 2006 due to a calendar shift apparently. Bottom-line, this company is trading below tangible book value, has set the bar pretty low (perhaps not low enough) and should not generate a significant loss per share next year (though the current estimates are still to high in my opinion). It is probably a little early to get in for a big move, but the bottom should be near. I purchased some stock on Wednesday 11/21 and will look to add more in the future when the bottom in s-s-s declines appears to be in sight.