Team Alpha Portfolio: Selling A Stock When Serious Questions Arise [View article]
Dave isn't barking up any wrong tree! He and I have had some great exchanges on his articles, and I am a big fan of his (I have followed him since he began as an author and I have immense respect for D-I-Y investors who are able to not only learn but also teach as well as he does). Thanks,though, gators for your kind words. Please, though, direct people to the NOT FREE stuff I do!
Don't Let Dividend Yield Drive Your Investment Decision [View article]
Thanks for the kind words. I am not sure you will like my answer, but I don't really think about it in that manner. While I understand the importance of dividends to many, I tend to look at stocks for their total return potential and then position-size relative to the opportunity but with consideration for risk.
I don't think it's worth it to invest in a lot of "high-risk" dividend-payers. With interest-rates so low, for instance, leveraging to own a lot of JNJ might make a lot more sense than investing a small amount of CLF, for instance.
I run a model portfolio that is for "conservative" investors, and the highest dividend yield is about 4% (INTC). I don't have any real high-yielders at all in my Top 20 model. I could imagine adding PBI, but not if I thought it were "high-risk" most likely. That's the problem with a high dividend - it signals risk. I prefer to take risk in a name like MAKO (no dividend), not financial risk so much as just fundamental business risk.
Your question is an interesting one. I suppose if I had an objective of creating an equity portfolio with a really high income generation requirement, I would have to think about it more in the lines of how you framed it. I will give it some more thought and see if I can add to this response at a later time.
Don't Let Dividend Yield Drive Your Investment Decision [View article]
Yeah, I agree. I misread and thought $fin meant DIVIDEND/FCF, but maybe he is ultra-conservative and meant what he said. Analytically, I like to look at Dividend relative to modified FCF, where the modification is to add back discretionary capital spending. Easier said than done!
Team Alpha Portfolio: Selling A Stock When Serious Questions Arise [View article]
It's an old picture - trust me, I don't wear suits. Ironically, though, I just put MW into one of my investment models, which was probably your point. MW has done well to transition its business. Thankfully, weddings and proms still lead to tuxedo rentals too..
Chronically Criminal: Shielding The Public From Medical Marijuana [View article]
How many shares are there? That way, we can value the company. Let me point you to a real company with real products that is also a penny stock (until their gazillion to one reverse split): MSLP
Musclepharm has celebrity endorsements - does Dixie? Just kidding. The serious part, though, is that "products" don't equal "good investment". I am naive/dumb, so clue me in. When you say "control", does that mean that CO has given them a perpetual license?
Chronically Criminal: Shielding The Public From Medical Marijuana [View article]
Stealthology, your question cracks me up. Are you so hard up for advice that you want Ashraf, who is basically saying that this is road-kill, to identify the animal? I won't speak for this very bright SA contributor, but I wouldn't expect him to get close enough to the stench to do so!
Don't Let Dividend Yield Drive Your Investment Decision [View article]
Thank you , Mike, for your kind words. I have written about mortgage REITs before, but I don't follow them closely. I used to invest in mortgages over a period 1986-1998 and know how complex they are. My articles have never been about whether they should be bought or not but rather in making sure investors understand what they are, which is expensive funds that use a lot of leverage. As a rule of thumb, they will work 2/3 of the time and very poorly 1/3 of the time. In very simple terms, one is betting on the spread between mortgages and funding costs (including cost of hedging). The "yield" is really a stupid number. Stupid is the best word I can come up with and not exactly professional, but that's all I can call it. I don't follow EXC closely enough to comment. I am negative on Utilities in general for several reasons, primarily rising interest rates, regulatory and demographic issues. Sorry I can't be more specific right now - it's really on the back-burner for me.
I will refer you to a couple of articles I shared at the beginning of the year that listed all of my top ideas for the year. Keep in mind that I don't believe in that concept - they were actually what I was recommending at the time. I run two stock models that I share with the public. My Top 20 model portfolio was shared on 1/1: http://bit.ly/12zFI3w. We exited ESL and just bought CSTR after they reported, but 1/8 of the way through the year, we still have 19 of the 20. I have a Conservative Growth/Balanced model too. Here was what it looked like: http://bit.ly/150yzaZ. Here, my goal is to do the impossible, which is beat the market when it is rallying but avoid losing money. Consequently, unlike the other model, where we always own 20 stocks (and the subscribers can choose to hedge or whatever they want in terms of risk), this one it's on me. I started the year at the maximum roughly of 75% stocks and the minimum of 10% bonds (so 15% cash). We have sold several positions and trimmed several and are now at about 65%/10%/25%. You can take a free trial and see that activity. We also bought MW.
Thanks to Seeking Alpha's new Pro program, I am now able to share very high quality (well, that's my goal!) analyses, and I would point you to several recent examples:
These stay up for only 30 days and then are available only to subscribers of the service. I have shared some others too, but you won't be able to access them.
You asked for 5, and I gave you only three. Here are two more:
http://bit.ly/12zFGsk (A follow up article in which I shared a bullish, contrarian perspective on AVP).
I hope that gives you a good and fair flavor. These are all recent. I have shared a lot of articles as I celebrate in the next few days my 6th anniversary on SA. The good news is that I have had some fantastic ones, but, when one writes almost 100 articles per year, there are inevitable bad calls too! When I say fantastic, I am not talking, by the way, about having a crystal ball, though sometimes they might turn out good in that regard. Instead, I am talking about engaging readers, hearing back from people who learned and getting some fantastic feedback from people who take the time to comment.
Thanks for your interest, Mike.
P.S. Do you ever go to Pita Inn on Dempster? If not, you should!
Team Alpha Portfolio: Selling A Stock When Serious Questions Arise [View article]
Thanks, RS. I have enjoyed this thread for many reasons, but one of the main ones is that I have learned too. I can't know everything about every stock - even the ones I do think I know well sometimes turn out differently than I had thought. In any event, I try to be careful when I am making points and drawing conclusions to share my intimacy of knowledge or familiarity. I don't want to come across as an "authority" when I am not. I felt like some might be concluding that I think that this stock is necessarily bad and that there is necessarily a problem, when I don't. It's very complex, and I think people are getting confused about "fraud" vs. sustainability. I have no reason to think that there is fraud and find it superfluous that the company defends itself on this matter. Thanks to some posters who have taken their time to share their view, I have a better understanding. But I will stick to the point that for your audience, this could become an untenable situation. The stock is where you recommended it ballpark and there are lots of fish in the sea. So, again, I commend you for coming back and sharing your current views, right or wrong, and your rationale for why you no longer want to include it in this model that you share with your followers.
Team Alpha Portfolio: Selling A Stock When Serious Questions Arise [View article]
Don't Let Dividend Yield Drive Your Investment Decision [View article]
I don't think it's worth it to invest in a lot of "high-risk" dividend-payers. With interest-rates so low, for instance, leveraging to own a lot of JNJ might make a lot more sense than investing a small amount of CLF, for instance.
I run a model portfolio that is for "conservative" investors, and the highest dividend yield is about 4% (INTC). I don't have any real high-yielders at all in my Top 20 model. I could imagine adding PBI, but not if I thought it were "high-risk" most likely. That's the problem with a high dividend - it signals risk. I prefer to take risk in a name like MAKO (no dividend), not financial risk so much as just fundamental business risk.
Your question is an interesting one. I suppose if I had an objective of creating an equity portfolio with a really high income generation requirement, I would have to think about it more in the lines of how you framed it. I will give it some more thought and see if I can add to this response at a later time.
Don't Let Dividend Yield Drive Your Investment Decision [View article]
Chronically Criminal: Shielding The Public From Medical Marijuana [View article]
Team Alpha Portfolio: Selling A Stock When Serious Questions Arise [View article]
Team Alpha Portfolio: Selling A Stock When Serious Questions Arise [View article]
Amerco: Move And Store Your Cash In This Stock [View article]
Kidding aside, what a great report...
Chronically Criminal: Shielding The Public From Medical Marijuana [View article]
Musclepharm has celebrity endorsements - does Dixie? Just kidding. The serious part, though, is that "products" don't equal "good investment". I am naive/dumb, so clue me in. When you say "control", does that mean that CO has given them a perpetual license?
Team Alpha Portfolio: Selling A Stock When Serious Questions Arise [View article]
Chronically Criminal: Shielding The Public From Medical Marijuana [View article]
Don't Let Dividend Yield Drive Your Investment Decision [View article]
Don't Let Dividend Yield Drive Your Investment Decision [View article]
I will refer you to a couple of articles I shared at the beginning of the year that listed all of my top ideas for the year. Keep in mind that I don't believe in that concept - they were actually what I was recommending at the time. I run two stock models that I share with the public. My Top 20 model portfolio was shared on 1/1: http://bit.ly/12zFI3w. We exited ESL and just bought CSTR after they reported, but 1/8 of the way through the year, we still have 19 of the 20. I have a Conservative Growth/Balanced model too. Here was what it looked like: http://bit.ly/150yzaZ. Here, my goal is to do the impossible, which is beat the market when it is rallying but avoid losing money. Consequently, unlike the other model, where we always own 20 stocks (and the subscribers can choose to hedge or whatever they want in terms of risk), this one it's on me. I started the year at the maximum roughly of 75% stocks and the minimum of 10% bonds (so 15% cash). We have sold several positions and trimmed several and are now at about 65%/10%/25%. You can take a free trial and see that activity. We also bought MW.
Thanks to Seeking Alpha's new Pro program, I am now able to share very high quality (well, that's my goal!) analyses, and I would point you to several recent examples:
CFR: http://bit.ly/12zFI3x
ATX: http://bit.ly/150yx2P
UNFI: http://bit.ly/12zFI3B
These stay up for only 30 days and then are available only to subscribers of the service. I have shared some others too, but you won't be able to access them.
You asked for 5, and I gave you only three. Here are two more:
http://bit.ly/150yxj7 (mentions AVX, VSH and KEM)
http://bit.ly/12zFGsk (A follow up article in which I shared a bullish, contrarian perspective on AVP).
I hope that gives you a good and fair flavor. These are all recent. I have shared a lot of articles as I celebrate in the next few days my 6th anniversary on SA. The good news is that I have had some fantastic ones, but, when one writes almost 100 articles per year, there are inevitable bad calls too! When I say fantastic, I am not talking, by the way, about having a crystal ball, though sometimes they might turn out good in that regard. Instead, I am talking about engaging readers, hearing back from people who learned and getting some fantastic feedback from people who take the time to comment.
Thanks for your interest, Mike.
P.S. Do you ever go to Pita Inn on Dempster? If not, you should!
Don't Let Dividend Yield Drive Your Investment Decision [View article]
CenturyLink's Management Has Lost Its Mind [View article]
Team Alpha Portfolio: Selling A Stock When Serious Questions Arise [View article]