Alan Brochstein

Tech May Be a Wreck, But This Isn't 2001

Thanks User 138602. I don't have an opinion on YHOO that is informed at all. I surely wouldn't want to own it if success depends upon being acquired. By many metrics (beyond PE), the stock looks very inexpensive, not surprisingly.

Tech May Be a Wreck, But This Isn't 2001

The hand, thanks for your comments. You make an excellent point - the industry is more mature indeed. I think it is a pretty bad industry quite frankly - way too much competition in many segments (semiconductors come to mind). I have just started warming up, having maintained zero or relatively low exposure for the past 15 months. One of the nice things about a recession is that it eliminates some of the weaker competitors, a process that allows the "survivors" to capture more share when the market resumes its growth. While I question the innovation at MSFT, many of the others in the large-cap Tech space will no doubt be selling things tomorrow that are quite different from today.

Tech May Be a Wreck, But This Isn't 2001

Thanks, Dr. O. I surely appreciate your point and believe it is mainly priced in, but, as you say "no one knows", certainly not me. An interesting aspect of technology is that it theoretically allows a company to "do more with less". To that extent, tech companies might surprise us.

Xilinx vs. Altera: Which Is the Real Growth Stock?

How many angels can fit on the head of a pin?

I actually think both could do very well for a trade here. INTC looks set to go too. There are some real pigs in the sector that probably won't attract investor interest (SNDK, NVDA, MU), but several, including the FPGA guys and the HPAL guys look solid.

Don’t Fight the Fed? Why Not?

That is certainly a possibility. What's nice about BFAM is that those services aren't going away. Even if unemployment rises, there will still be a need for these centers. I would suspect that large corporations, which are extremely profitable right now relative to historical standards, may trim headcount, but we aren't talking about super-hard times for companies. Just lower profits than they might hope for... In an environment of layoffs, the companies will not want to take away things that make life better for those who retain their jobs or morale will suffer even more.

Altera's Q1 Results: The Market's Enthusiasm Was Difficult to Understand

William, I was very long ALTR going into the number and less so now, but I do think that the stock is headed to 25 or so.

As far as your receivables comment, I took a look, and I believe that your sequential perspective masks the real trends. A year ago, AR was $170mm, so, in fact, they are down $40mm. The sales reported at $304mm, were up from $293mm a year ago. In all fairness, the numbers a year ago were atrocious. So, in Q1 05, AR was 114mm and reported sales were $265mm. So, in the past two years, sales are up 13% or so and AR has increased similarly. I don't see an issue here. I am not sure what drives their AR - could be seasonals, customer mix or geographical.

The same exercise on inventories shows that over the past year, inventories are up $16mm on a reported trailing $11mm increase in sales. From 2 years ago, they are up $27.5mm on a $29mm increase in Q1 sales. Again, not so much of an issue in my opinion.