Alan von Altendorf

Bear Market Rallies and Lessons of History

Dave Wrixon wrote:
> The dot Com boom was the consequence
> of a technological revolution. Was such a revolution a major factor
> in the previous cycles used for comparison?

Yes. During the Roaring 20's it was radio.

Oil: Supply and Demand? Hardly!

China produces 4 million bpd, consumes about 8 million.

Oil: Supply and Demand? Hardly!

Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:
> pure supply/demand considerations, oil should be trading in the
> $40-$50 range, not the $85 that we have seen. That means $35
> premium can be laid purely at the door of the big hedgefunds.

Maybe. Maybe half or more is war risk (Iran, Lebanon)

Understanding Energy: Professional Money Management and Peak Oil

@Cabrian Capitalist - oil production at XOM, BP, CVX peaked in 2006. That 4 trillion boe conventional "endowment" is about as meaningful as saying you have a 1-in-50 chance of outliving your grandchildren.

Understanding Energy: Professional Money Management and Peak Oil

che wrote:
> i wonder if they used a term "peak timber" in the middle ages

As a matter of fact, yes. The shortage of firewood in England prompted exploration, mining, and retail distribution of coal.

Shale Gas: Promises, Promises, Promises

Mmarrkk - Arthur Berman posted a new, brief, conclusive answer to TPH and the shale operators petroleumtruthreport.b...


On Oct 27 10:56 AM Mmarrkk wrote:

> Tudor Pickering Holt gave a point by point assessment of Berman's
> evaluation. They, in short, said Berman is Flat Out Wrong and way
> out of his league. We shall see.

Understanding Energy: Professional Money Management and Peak Oil

Gregor's article is extremely important and indeed encouraging, if it's true that more money managers have become aware of peak oil flow and the shortfall in replacement reserves. Arthur Berman has posted a great new capsule summary of the Barnett shale controversy at petroleumtruthreport.b... - a must read if you think natgas is an inexhaustible, cheap resource.

Is Exxon Betting on $100 Oil?

Full story www.upstreamonline.com... Upstream Online

Is Exxon Betting on $100 Oil?

The plot thickens:

"Sinopec, represented by Neil Bush, the younger brother of former US President George W. Bush, recently made an offer to state-run Ghana National Petroleum Corporation to form a joint bid for a stake in the Jubilee field...

"Several other foreign oil companies, including Franch giant Total, UK supermajor BP and China’s Cnooc Ltd., have sent representatives to Ghana for talks with the government about acquiring a stake in the field." [Offshore wire]

Harvest Energy: East vs. West in Terms of Oil

This article and comments have persuaded me to start an oil company and flip it to the Koreans or Chinese. I'm tired of being honest, diligent, allergic to puff.

Harvest Energy: East vs. West in Terms of Oil

In my experience, Far East oil & gas companies are eager to acquire assets, will pay a hefty premium, and are naive about valuation. They tend to believe whatever they're told about reserves, prospects, leads, growth scenarios. We advised on a few deals, told them don't do it. They bought anyway, paid billions for bullshit. Good racket for sellers.

Petrobras: Dead In The Water

It took a year for the credit market to recover, and sure enough PBR is trying to float a $20 billion bond issue. This is only the tip of a very large iceberg.

www.upstreamonline.com...

The End of 'Easy Oil'

Ref three comments on instablog version of this article seekingalpha.com/insta... expressing skepticism about Brazil

Profits in the Golden Triangle

" 'The lack of availability of technical ability may be a constraint on growth, no doubt about it,' José Sergio Gabrielli, president of Petrobras, the state-run oil company, said in an interview. 'It is a big challenge for the country.'

"The engineering shortage here is spreading across industries. The lack of civil and construction engineers threatens infrastructure projects; areas like banking, aircraft manufacture, petrochemicals and metals are all competing for the same top graduates. In the booming oil and gas industries, companies are turning to foreign labor because there are not enough qualified Brazilians to go around." www.nytimes.com/2008/0...

Profits in the Golden Triangle

"Petrobras cannot avoid becoming a political football. The oil giant is a cash cow for a government that has been steadily increasing economic transfers to the poor. CEO Gabrielli reckons that Brazil was able to prevent the financial crisis from pushing the country into recession by stimulating consumption among the poorest of the population with increases in the minimum wage and welfare payments...

"The task of producing oil in deep water and beneath a further five kilometres of rock, salt and sand is hugely expensive. Each well costs $100 million, Mr Gabrielli says. The all-in cost per barrel offshore of Brazil is about $45 per barrel..." business.timesonline.c...

All-in $45 cost assumes they produce 5 billion barrels, which I doubt, and everything goes exactly to plan, which it won't.