Alan von Altendorf

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

I like Tyler Durden's take, published today: "The only entities left to speculate amongst each other are a few computers and ever decreasing numbers of degenerate gamblers."

10 Notes on the Current Markets

'GDP ex-government growth will be a statistic to watch in the future.' - thank you, I was beginning to feel like a Lone Ranger.

A Summary of Q1 Bank Earnings: World, You Just Got Hustled

On May 11 03:45 PM aarc wrote:
> Meanwhile, those contrarian traders who bought AIG at 33 cents are
> now up almost 500% on their trades.
> Who is the greater fool getting hustled down here at these extremely
> depressed prices? The trend traders or the contrarian traders?

Great day traders always make money. Some of us can't use stops, have to pay brokers, have money locked up in pension funds, can't trade after hours, can't stand much risk, etc. So, the question is fundamentals. Are we going down or up? Did the banks get a clean bill of health from the Fed stress test, or was it a pack of lies? Is AIG a going concern? What about General Motors?

Comment above by 'inflation' tells a big story: if you are a trader, you don't care whether it is a bull or a bear market. The retail chumps who save and invest are there to be driven like sheep and fleeced by the pros.

A Summary of Q1 Bank Earnings: World, You Just Got Hustled

On May 10 11:55 PM Kem Parton wrote:
>We escaped death before because the computer revolution increased productivity to an astonishing degree

Er, no. Gain from Third Wave was trivial (bar codes and back office automation) if you back out the cost of replacing hardware every two years and software licences. The enormous 'productivity gain' was offshoring -- exporting US jobs and whole factories to Mexico and China.

A Summary of Q1 Bank Earnings: World, You Just Got Hustled

On May 10 07:07 PM Matt Miller wrote:
> You're a brilliant young man! ... thanks for sharing your knowledge.

Horsefeathers. He probably has a kid that age, just like 'Tyler Durden.' We're finally getting the straight story from very angry insiders. Probably ex-Lehman.

Moral Hazard, Time Inconsistency and 'Too Big to Fail'

"a loss of confidence by Goldman in Bear as a counterparty"
"Treasury inexplicably refused to assist in facilitating any suitor taking over Lehman"

Goldman killed two competitors. RICO indeed.

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

Good one, Kunst! Thanks.


On May 02 10:53 PM Kunst wrote:

> The Dow was up 0.54% yesterday (5/1/09). That's a 194% annual rate
> of gain.
>
> Between 10:22 and 11:25 AM, it was up 1.10%. That's a 130,827% annual
> rate of gain!
>
> Between 1:35 and 1:40 PM....well, you get the idea. I hope.

Valuing Assets: The Clueless Cadre

Enron, Worldcom, Countrywide, Lehman, GM, RBS zero.
Minus TAF and TARP most of those banks are zero,

What Obama Needs to Know about Tim Geithner, the AIG Fiasco and Citigroup

Great writer, great info. Thank you.

Banks on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

Great stuff. Pure delight. I owe you $5

All Shoes May Drop for the Banks

Good idea. Well presented. Thank you.

AIG Bailout: Over to Congress

<i>yes, it would be better if the market solved its own problem. But even a cursory analysts of the serpentine connections between AIG and capital markets tells you that the latter just can't happen, so you have to hold your nose, be an adult</i>

No, sir. You meant be a coward. Be a child caught with one hand in the cookie jar and the other in his pants. You mean complexity is too much for "markets" to cope with, but government can? Sigh... F