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Alan Young

 
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Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • The Secret Paulson-Goldman Meeting [View article]
    On top of all that, why would the entire board of GS travel from NY to Moscow to meet with Gorbachev? If it were just about getting advice for their Russian investments, a manager or two would have sufficed. Are they getting advice about how to loot the USA, the way Russia was looted of all public property when the Soviet government collapsed?
    Oct 20 03:08 PM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It) [View article]
    Great article--not necessarily because it WILL come true, but because, as the Ghost of Xmas Future suggested to Scrooge, because it MAY come true. It is the Abyss against which an enlightened (we hope) government must make efforts to defend us.

    One disagreement with the scenario: #5 -- the Fed is not, ultimately, controlled by the government; it is an organization of privately-owned banks. In a situation as extreme as depicted here, they very well could decide to bail on the "public interest" and try to save their own capital by taking themselves out of the loop. Of course, that would only accelerate other elements of the process.
    May 3 03:33 PM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Rally Is Unsustainable [View article]
    Good analysis, but your narrative lost me about halfway through. Maybe fewer digressions would help.
    Clearly GS is manipulating prices on a daily basis. I don't understand why non-GS quant funds can't figure out how to compensate for the obvious ploys.
    Good luck with your shorts. The market can stay irrational longer than most of us can stay solvent.
    May 1 12:09 PM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $59 Billion Dubai Debt Default Could Have Much Wider Implications [View article]
    "Investors should exit all stock markets and buy bonds or precious metals or short emerging markets." Wow, the sky is falling! Because one bond, which was so risky to begin with that it was UNRATED and "bought earlier this year at a massive discount", is delinquent? Mr. Cooper, please take your Lithium medication, get a few good meals under your belt, and check the markets again next week.
    Nov 26 04:40 PM | 30 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding the Dollar's Reversal: Who Will Feel the Pain? [View article]
    One day spike, and you're talking about reversing a year-long trend? That's a bit premature.
    Dec 4 05:11 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Hurt the American Financial Services Industry [View article]
    Bravo, well said. The less the middleman takes, the better off we are.
    If only America's inventors, entrepreneurs, and artists were rewarded as well as our accountants, then America could once again become the master of the world.

    Apr 13 10:20 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sucker's Rally Approaching an End [View article]
    Right about the fundamentals, but so what? "The market can stay irrational longer than most people can stay solvent."
    Apr 13 10:12 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How the Quants Perpetuate Market Distortion [View article]
    Good article and an essential point.
    If this type of trading continues unabated, there will be no reason for anyone to invest in stocks at all. Owning stock was once thought of as actually participating in ownership of a business, whose underlying value was reflected in the stock. Now it's just a ticket to a circus where computerized beasts chase each other around in circles.
    Apr 17 01:08 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Energy: Professional Money Management and Peak Oil [View article]
    353732, you don't get it.

    It's not that the supply is becoming exhausted; it's that remaining supply is in increasingly hard-to-get places: deep water, Antarctica, tar sands. This slows the rate of production while demand continues to increase. It also raises the energy cost of retrieving the fuel, so the net energy gain declines even more rapidly than the gross production.

    Sure there's new technology—otherwise we'd already be fighting for the last accessible pools of goo. But the new technology is fighting increasing barriers to access, not growing the supply at the rate of demand.

    Demand is down now, keeping the price relatively stable (but still double what it was just a few years ago). Assuming the world economy will generate more activity and demand in the next year or two, we will see the price go up radically as production cannot keep up.

    In the US, we have built too much of our culture, housing, infrastructure around oil-based transportation. As the cost of oil inevitably climbs on the world market, we are in danger of being squeezed out by more efficient countries. Get ready for the paradigm shift.
    Oct 27 08:35 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asset Reflation Does Not Signal Recovery for U.S.'s Collapsed Economy [View article]
    Brilliant concept, and "defunct amusement park" a delightful metaphor.
    However, I wish you could "connect the dots" a bit more as to why this "disarray" produces such a strong upward trend in stock prices. Are investors so easily tricked by official sleight-of-hand? Or, more odiously, are prices being artificially pumped by certain privileged Wall Street firms in a conspiracy to defraud innocent investors even further?
    Oct 6 03:38 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Android Only Surging Because Apple Is Letting It? [View article]
    My real-time stock market tracker uses Flash, whether I like it or not; it works on my iMac but not on an iPad. This is a daily necessity for me, unlike any other app. That's what has kept me from buying an iPad; I'm a likely customer for an Android tablet (Galaxy) when it becomes available in a few months.
    Sep 6 03:31 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Sell Out of Mortgage REITs [View article]
    This is PROOF that Mr Pardini does not know what he's talking about. The dividend-capture trade in these names is very crowded. I've made more money by SELLING the day before the ex-date, and buying back at the bottom the next day, because the overnight price loss is almost always more than the dividend gain.
    Aug 9 03:13 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TIPS on Expected Inflation: A Unique Dividends Buying Opportunity [View article]
    "if you invest $1000 in a 10-year T-note at 2.70%, you will get $27 a year"--and it's equally certain that if you SHORT that same note, you will have to PAY $27 a year, plus whatever the broker charges for the use of the asset. So a shorting vehicle like TBT is very costly. It can only be used effectively for short-term trades. Knowing that bond rates must go up is not enough; you have to know WHEN they are going to go up.
    Sep 8 09:09 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ten Reasons for an Imminent Stock Market Crash [View article]
    I have been reading articles almost indistinguishable from this one since the second or third week of March. That hasn't been very useful, and it isn't useful now.
    Sep 30 03:24 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons from a Market 'En Fuego' [View article]
    Where did all these comments about "missing the rally" get that idea? He said, "a little behind the market." Regular readers of Roger's blog know that he had reduced exposure long before the crash, was never completely out of the market, and started adding back in before the rally started. The dissing is just immature.
    Sep 17 10:52 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,360 Comments
4,187 Likes