Chart Of The Day, Apple Valuation Edition [View article]
I agree with points 1-3, but Felix misses a couple of important points.
Steve Jobs' death doesn't just mean that Apple may have more difficulty maintaining mastery of the tech market. It also means tons of stock—literally billions of dollars— going to heirs who might want to sell it. That's a big headwind.
The point about cash is also a bit deceptive. Yes, there's lots of "unrestricted" cash on the books, but almost all of it is overseas. Bringing it back to the US to pay dividends would trigger a tax event of biblical proportions. If Congress acts to authorize a tax break for repatriated earnings, that would be bullish for the stock. Don't hold your breath, though.
Apple Needs to Loosen Its Purse Strings: Here's What It Can Buy [View article]
I agree that moat-defending acquisitions are the likely intent and best use for the cash.
Some of the other ideas are off-base:
"Apple's bigger war chest allowed it to shut out Google in the Nortel patent auction." Huh? Because Google was hampered by its paltry $39 billion in cash? I doubt it.
Investing the money in anything other than AAPL itself is paying for inferior assets. In the current market, an investor is prudent to hold cash.
Stock buybacks are great when the stock has fallen way out of its expected uptrend. That last happened in 2008, when it lost 50% of its price. But no one has suffered from the oversupply of float since then, have they?
To Trade or Not to Trade: An Apple Earnings Preview [View article]
First: where do you get these "whisper numbers"? There are widely-publicized analyst estimates, which AAPL makes sport of beating. If the whisper number is close to the publicized number, the stock should go up. If traders have a much higher whisper going on, and the upside expectations are already priced into the stock, then the earnings have to beat the expectations. But that's more moving parts than you seem to be accounting for.
Second, averages are of little use. If there's a record of x number of upside results, that doesn't tell us much about the next one, unless there are other clues. Other clues might be: estimate revisions (Zacks makes a whole business of analyzing this one variable!), gap between public and whisper estimates, price movement BEFORE the earnings announcement, etc.
All in all, I don't see much use to this skimpy analysis.
Apple's Downside Risk: $290 Just Based on Cash [View article]
This "analysis" is completely bogus. And it's not just that it's based on a single variable, which is moronic enough; it's also the fact that the amount of cash is meaningless. For example, suppose that Apple announces tomorrow that it is buying HPQ (silly idea, but just for example) in an all-cash deal. AAPL's cash position goes to zero. Now how do you compute the value of the stock?
Apple: Not All Smooth Sailing Ahead [View article]
The author's thesis is very simple and clearly expressed: the stock is volatile, so you can't assume it will always go up just because the company is good. No one can really argue with this. Apple lovers, don't get distracted by the headline.
I also agree that *most of the time* a diligent stock-picker can find more value in smaller companies. But this might be an exceptional time. Today, the large-cap NASDAQ-100 index was flat, while other large-cap indices fell, and the small cap Russell 2000 fell twice as much. This is an indication that big money is moving out of small caps, into large tech stocks. The next quarter (or longer) could be particularly rough sailing for the small-cap value investor.
Chart Of The Day, Apple Valuation Edition [View article]
Steve Jobs' death doesn't just mean that Apple may have more difficulty maintaining mastery of the tech market. It also means tons of stock—literally billions of dollars— going to heirs who might want to sell it. That's a big headwind.
The point about cash is also a bit deceptive. Yes, there's lots of "unrestricted" cash on the books, but almost all of it is overseas. Bringing it back to the US to pay dividends would trigger a tax event of biblical proportions. If Congress acts to authorize a tax break for repatriated earnings, that would be bullish for the stock. Don't hold your breath, though.
Apple Should Be Selling Much Higher, Why It Isn't [View article]
Maybe it's stopped going up because everyone has already bought as much as they can. That's the usual reason a chart goes parabolic.
Apple Needs to Loosen Its Purse Strings: Here's What It Can Buy [View article]
Some of the other ideas are off-base:
"Apple's bigger war chest allowed it to shut out Google in the Nortel patent auction." Huh? Because Google was hampered by its paltry $39 billion in cash? I doubt it.
Investing the money in anything other than AAPL itself is paying for inferior assets. In the current market, an investor is prudent to hold cash.
Stock buybacks are great when the stock has fallen way out of its expected uptrend. That last happened in 2008, when it lost 50% of its price. But no one has suffered from the oversupply of float since then, have they?
To Trade or Not to Trade: An Apple Earnings Preview [View article]
There are widely-publicized analyst estimates, which AAPL makes sport of beating. If the whisper number is close to the publicized number, the stock should go up. If traders have a much higher whisper going on, and the upside expectations are already priced into the stock, then the earnings have to beat the expectations. But that's more moving parts than you seem to be accounting for.
Second, averages are of little use. If there's a record of x number of upside results, that doesn't tell us much about the next one, unless there are other clues. Other clues might be: estimate revisions (Zacks makes a whole business of analyzing this one variable!), gap between public and whisper estimates, price movement BEFORE the earnings announcement, etc.
All in all, I don't see much use to this skimpy analysis.
Apple's Downside Risk: $290 Just Based on Cash [View article]
For example, suppose that Apple announces tomorrow that it is buying HPQ (silly idea, but just for example) in an all-cash deal. AAPL's cash position goes to zero. Now how do you compute the value of the stock?
Apple's Cash Trajectory [View article]
Apple: Not All Smooth Sailing Ahead [View article]
I also agree that *most of the time* a diligent stock-picker can find more value in smaller companies. But this might be an exceptional time. Today, the large-cap NASDAQ-100 index was flat, while other large-cap indices fell, and the small cap Russell 2000 fell twice as much. This is an indication that big money is moving out of small caps, into large tech stocks. The next quarter (or longer) could be particularly rough sailing for the small-cap value investor.
Apple's Hoard [View article]
When Anonymous Sources Disappear Entirely [View article]
On Jun 22 05:21 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:
> I certainly think
> that we should give more difference to real journalism trying to
> uncover and expose what's going on rather than less.