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Albert Alfonso

 
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  • American Realty Capital: A Lump Of Coal For Christmas [View article]
    Blue Ridge,

    Doomsday articles? Really? Care to give an example?

    If anything, my articles are a reflection of my utter amazement of how the whole accounting error situation has played out. What we are seeing will likely be written down in textbooks as an example of how not to run a business.
    Dec 28, 2014. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: Significant Value Can Be Found In The Preferred Units [View article]
    Gawilley,

    That is a fair point.

    I am currently looking through BBEP numbers and seeing if it can pay the distribution at $60 WTI. From my initial estimates, the answer is no. I plan to do a writeup next week.
    Dec 28, 2014. 11:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: A Lump Of Coal For Christmas [View article]
    Mark_A and bear,

    Regarding SA and its impact,

    From my experience, the article headline has an immediate impact. It seems as if some HFTs are programmed to buy or sell based on coverage. On some smaller names, there is also a notable increase in volume. However, the net impact is tiny 99% of the time.
    Dec 28, 2014. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: Significant Value Can Be Found In The Preferred Units [View article]
    VNR will generate significant positive DCF in 2015 at current energy prices. You'll need to look at my other article to get the math. I provided the final DCF number in the conclusion.

    Anyways, the distributions to the preferred units must come before any common unit distributions. In other words, the way VNR and other E&P MLPs calculate DCF means that DCF above zero equals a fully covered preferred. That is all the proof needed.
    Dec 28, 2014. 10:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: A Lump Of Coal For Christmas [View article]
    Steve,

    Yes, it appears ARCP was required to suspend the dividends to receive the extension/waivers to March. So therefore, a "formal" request. Also note that the credit facility was permanently reduced to $3.6B, while previously it was temporary.

    Regarding the reevaluate term, wouldn't that language be necessary given that currently ARCP is technically non-compliant with its covenants, hence the need to the extensions/waivers?

    Furthermore, wouldn't that language be there to imply a change in the status in the dividend? Basically, ARCP will go from paying a dividend for all of 2014, to no dividend for Q1 2015, to having a dividend for the rest of 2015. In each case, the company would have "reevaluated" its dividend.

    I'm just thinking aloud here. I feel we are reading to much into one word.
    Dec 27, 2014. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: A Lump Of Coal For Christmas [View article]
    auct1bob,

    Dividends were suspended at the request of the lenders. This was not a cash flow issue.
    Dec 27, 2014. 10:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: A Lump Of Coal For Christmas [View article]
    Charlie,

    There is no way I would short O to buy ARCP. Sorry. You'll be trading in a Porsche for to buy a Kia.
    Dec 27, 2014. 10:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: Death By A Thousand Cuts [View article]
    If anything, the low volume should have caused an even worse decline. Lack of liquidity is one of the reasons why we are seeing so many large moves in both directions. For every transaction there needs to be a buyer and a seller.

    By ending the day flay after opening down 7%, buyers, with full knowledge of the news, came in and supported the stock. If I were an ARCP bear, this is not a good trend.

    I think we should stop focusing so much on the dividend and look at the other issues address. The lenders agreed to another waiver/extension, and a full portfolio review took place and found no problems. Both are positive events and point towards ARCP having a real intrinsic value.

    I am thinking that this delay until March is either due to the accounting review taking more time than anticipated or the outside chance of a major transaction taking place.

    After all, Morgan Stanley is there for a reason. I would not be surprised if we see a buyout and or a huge divestment/ re-branding.
    Dec 27, 2014. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: A Lump Of Coal For Christmas [View article]
    bg6638-2,

    That is actually true. I think there is a sizable chance for ARCP to be sold for parts. After all, Morgan Stanley is helping them through this whole situation.
    Dec 26, 2014. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: A Lump Of Coal For Christmas [View article]
    johnberchick,

    You never know. Inline with peers is a vague term and could mean just about anything.
    Dec 26, 2014. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: A Lump Of Coal For Christmas [View article]
    I updated that paragraph to make it clearer.

    A REIT can certainty stop paying dividends as long as FY dividends remain at 90% of taxable income. Maybe we'll get an extra special dividend at year-end to reach that threshold.

    BTW, it appears that ARCP was asked to do this by its lenders. They hold the keys to the kingdom as ARCP would be technically in default of convants without the waivers/extensions.
    Dec 26, 2014. 06:37 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Resource Capital Corp: Is A Dividend Cut Coming For 2015? [View article]
    Pano,

    Not really a disgrace if every peer already reduced dividends from 2013 to 2014. RSO would just be fashionably late to the party :)
    Dec 26, 2014. 06:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Resource Capital Corp: Is A Dividend Cut Coming For 2015? [View article]
    That dividend was for 2014.
    Dec 26, 2014. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: How Safe Is The Dividend? [View article]
    I know. However, in common jargon, distributions are commonly referred to as dividends. In addition, the title is there to convey a sentiment (is the yield safe?), while the body of the article makes it clear VNR pays distributions and is an E&P MLP.
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Tighter Spreads Could Hurt The Dividend In 2015 [View article]
    Penny trader,

    Yup. any cut in the dividend should be more than offset by BV gains. So overall, a positive total return.
    Dec 24, 2014. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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