Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Albert Alfonso  

View Albert Alfonso's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • CVR Partners: A High Yield Fertilizer Play Now On Sale [View article]
    User 10342501,

    You are trying to make sense of an irrational move by the market. They are retaining cash to fund the Q3 turnaround, which will stop production for ~3 weeks. This is done about every two years. They are also likely going to upgrade some parts hence why they retained some cash for capex.

    As for the price action, UAN is down due to lower corn prices. They don't sell corn but the market prices them that way.

    As for the Carl Icahn connection, what does that have to do with anything? UAN has been well run since its IPO. Most of the units are held by the GP so we could see them taken the firm private if the market continues to value it this way.
    Aug 4, 2015. 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: The Market Is In Full Panic Mode [View article]
    They were trading as low as $9 each in the after hours yesterday. Crazy price.
    Aug 4, 2015. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: The Market Is In Full Panic Mode [View article]
    "VNR is that the banks who run their credit facility are tightening the screws."

    Yup. The April Redetermiantion saw the borrowing base cut. We'll see another reduction in Oct/Nov. After that the base should more or less stay steady. They factor in TTM energy prices so much of the damage has already been done.
    Aug 4, 2015. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: The Market Is In Full Panic Mode [View article]
    dantes1,

    That is true. VNR does not have good hedges after 2016. However, they do have very low costs. They are likely going to be FCF positive even at $45 oil without hedges. Both LRE and EROC have a lot of fat to trim as well.
    Aug 4, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners - Cash Flows Beyond 2019 On Sale For Almost Nothing [View article]
    One item which seems too conservative are the costs. MEMP is seeing much lower LOE now than in Q1. VNR, which just reported, saw its costs fall 24% Y/Y.
    Aug 4, 2015. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources EPS of -$0.07 [View news story]
    What drop? This was a solid report. Units are up ~5%.
    Aug 4, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources EPS of -$0.07 [View news story]
    Coverage ratio improved big time from the Q1 level. Costs are also heading lower. Not a bad report.
    Aug 4, 2015. 12:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners Now Yields 20% [View article]
    Memorial Production Partners (NASDAQ:MEMP) declares $0.55/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

    No change in the distribution. Price action has nothing to do with the fundamentals.
    Aug 4, 2015. 12:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Closer Look Into The Shocking Distribution Suspension [View article]
    Mark_A,

    True. LINE is now essentially a call option on oil. However, most investors bought in for the income. It will take some time for the shareholder base to adjust.
    Aug 3, 2015. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Closer Look Into The Shocking Distribution Suspension [View article]
    Chancer,

    Funny enough, I think LINE's EV is gaining the ground loss on the equity side. The distribution suspension was a clear capitulation to the lenders.
    Aug 3, 2015. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Closer Look Into The Shocking Distribution Suspension [View article]
    George,

    The price action in VNR/LRE/EROC has been outright crazy. The LINE fallout is impacting all these names.
    Aug 3, 2015. 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Closer Look Into The Shocking Distribution Suspension [View article]
    RE,

    LINE's has out of control costs. LOE and G&A are well above peers. If they can shave off 25% there they can stay cash flow positive w/o hedges.

    Regarding the asset swap, I think natural gas has a brighter future than oil over the next few years. Tons of demand is coming online.
    Aug 3, 2015. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Closer Look Into The Shocking Distribution Suspension [View article]
    caperdory,

    Oil prices are very volatile. We have already seen a 50% rally this year followed by a 25% reversal. I doubt oil prices will average $40 long-term.
    Aug 3, 2015. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Closer Look Into The Shocking Distribution Suspension [View article]
    njbother,

    This news is a huge positive for the bonds. They had been trading at near BK levels.
    Aug 3, 2015. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners declares $0.04166 dividend [View news story]
    BBEP already cut its dividend for the second time earlier this year. They were ahead of the curve...
    Jul 31, 2015. 03:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,518 Comments
3,806 Likes