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Albert Alfonso  

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  • Pengrowth - The Dividend Cut Is Not As Bad As It Seems [View article]
    There were some hedges in place. I believe PGH monetized them earlier this year for a considerable gain. I think they still have a few swaps left.

    As for the size of the debt, it is actually not that large compared to the size of the asset base. They have ~550M BOE of reserves.
    Sep 2, 2015. 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Deeply Undervalued With A 6.2% Dividend Yield [View article]
    "Even IF lows have been made, no great recoveries should occur."

    Tell that to a market which just saw a 25% spike higher over three days. You'll have to go back to the early 90s to see such a move.
    Sep 2, 2015. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Deeply Undervalued With A 6.2% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Fred,

    Are you really including the PSX results? You'll need to back those out.

    The multi-decade low multiple is from a Citigroup report.
    Sep 2, 2015. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Pain For Penn West [View article]
    lsuavecito,

    PWE was spending like a drunken sailor back then. They have only started to focus on efficiency with Roberts as CEO.
    Sep 2, 2015. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth - The Dividend Cut Is Not As Bad As It Seems [View article]
    Cash flows are pretty much locked in for 2016 due to hedges. The real issue is 2017 and if oil stays at or near $40 per bbl. Hedges for that year and afterwards are small. If that is the case, we could be down to something like $0.25 per share in FFO.
    Sep 2, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth - The Dividend Cut Is Not As Bad As It Seems [View article]
    Everything is in Canadian dollars. The debt uses the exchange rate as of the end of Q2 2015.
    Sep 2, 2015. 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Pain For Penn West [View article]
    No way CNQ would buy. BTE is a better fit for them... I think maybe some Private equity firm could make a bid for PWE.
    Sep 2, 2015. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Pain For Penn West [View article]
    Lasvegasfreddie,

    Nobody knows. Oil has gone up 25% and loss 10% in less than a week!

    My thinking is that $60 per bbl is the natural floor, but traders are driving the price action.
    Sep 2, 2015. 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Pain For Penn West [View article]
    I do not like GDP. I see it as a zero, no equity value.
    Sep 2, 2015. 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Pain For Penn West [View article]
    2ndbattalion,

    Thank you.
    Sep 2, 2015. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Pain For Penn West [View article]
    JCCIII,

    LINE is in a worse spot versus PWE. LINE has better hedges, but its asset base is not the best.

    PWE has come of the best growth acres in Canada. They just don't have the cash to develop. If oil gets to $80, PWE is a $10 stock (10 times). As for LINE, its high debt is going to hold it back for ages.
    Sep 2, 2015. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Pain For Penn West [View article]
    saratogahawk,

    It is rather painful to see the price action in PWE/PGH/BTE. I think PWE is the weakest of the bunch, but it also has the most upside due to its light oil focus.

    PWE's CEO Roberts is a class act. He is smart oil man. However, the prior managers were reckless and left PWE in a bad spot.

    I think this firm needs to be sold off or reduced in size. A smaller, debt free PWE would be ideal.
    Sep 2, 2015. 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Marches Higher [View article]
    This article came out later than expected. Stocks got hit hard yesterday. Oil gave back some of its gains. Many are waiting for the EIA numbers...
    Sep 2, 2015. 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Marches Higher [View article]
    Gringo,

    LINE is a high-risk play. Think of it as a lotto ticket. The real value (risk adjusted) is being seen in the majors. I would also add the large shale names like EOG.
    Sep 2, 2015. 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Marches Higher [View article]
    RB,

    I agree. Citibank is out with a report noting that COP/CVX and others are trading at 30 year low multiples.
    Sep 2, 2015. 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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