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Albert Alfonso  

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  • Pengrowth - Asset Sales And An Update On Lindbergh [View article]
    Hammer,

    "Something is seriously wrong with the business model at this company."

    Care to share what you think can be changed?
    Jun 30, 2015. 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth - Asset Sales And An Update On Lindbergh [View article]
    Michael Blair,

    Thanks. While my position is no where near as large, PGH is one of my largest holdings. It was my largest before Apple rallied and PGH fell. It is crazy that it is now near its 52 week lows -- almost as if oil did not rally from $40 to $60...
    Jun 30, 2015. 08:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Easing The Crude Oil Glut [View article]
    Gil Lopez,

    Debt is a concern. However, leverage should lower given that the cost of capital on the equity is much improved. The old KMP had to issue a lot of debt to fund its growth. Same with the old KMI and the El Paso Merger.
    Jun 30, 2015. 07:55 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth - Asset Sales And An Update On Lindbergh [View article]
    12.5K bpd was the initial target. They were able to exceed that number. As to how, they mostly incorporated some of the spending 2 plans into phase 1. The entire Lindbergh facility was built to handle 50k bpd after all is said and done.
    Jun 30, 2015. 05:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: Has Stability Finally Come? [View article]
    michaelprince1977,

    One issue with drillco is that there has not yet been a correction in asset prices. There is still too much easy money going into the weaker E&Ps.
    Jun 29, 2015. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Resource Partners - The Market Is Pricing In A Distribution Cut [View article]
    OM,

    My argument is not that ARP needs to cut. But rather, that the market is pricing in a cut. Why is the yield once again close to 20% if the coverage ratio is okay?

    As for the hedges, ARP is not as well hedged given that many of these are new positions. Notice that the prices for oil in 2017-2019 are well below that of peers.

    As for the chart, not sure why you say this is nonsense. It shows that ARP has declined more than its peers YTD and by a wide margin. Going back over one year, ARP is down inline with MCEP/LINE, though the gap between them and VNR/MEMP increases even more.
    Jun 26, 2015. 04:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Equity May Need To Offer More For Williams [View article]
    7612841,

    Please tell me that is a joke. ETE is offering $64 per share and still sees accretion from the merger. That tells you just how undervalued WMB is.
    Jun 25, 2015. 01:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Equity May Need To Offer More For Williams [View article]
    Funny thing that ETE failed to mentioned that the merger premium as well as the accelerated dividend growth is also gone. As for if WPZ is better off under ETE or as part of WMB, that is still up for debate.
    Jun 25, 2015. 01:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Equity May Need To Offer More For Williams [View article]
    movies555,

    C-corp dividends are fully taxable while MLP distributions are not. Other C-corps of MLPs have traded at discounts to the MLPs. See KMP vs KMR, EEP vs EEQ, LINE vs LNCO.
    Jun 24, 2015. 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners - Get Ready For A Q2 Rebound [View article]
    blondguysc2001,

    If oil stays at $60 through 2018 we will see numerous defaults across the E&P landscape. For the majors, I think BP/TOT will cut their dividends, with and outside chance for RDS. XOM/CVX/COP will remain steady, but even they require ~$70 per bbl to stay FCF positive.
    Jun 24, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Equity May Need To Offer More For Williams [View article]
    That is the $64,000 question. Right now, they are suffering from the increased uncertainty. I'll have more to say on them in another article.
    Jun 24, 2015. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Count Out Kinder Morgan [View article]
    Ernie Mac,

    "What I have attempted to do is eliminate the "noise" and look at KMI from strictly a financial standpoint in terms of its ability to service existing debt, pay dividends and use leverage to fund future projects without issuing equity."

    There is a big problem here. Midstreams grow using a mix of equity and debt. KMI pays out most of its cash flow via dividends. Issuing equity and or debt to fund growth capital is not dilutive if the return is higher than the cost of capital.

    "I did not use Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) as that is an MLP convention"

    Umm, no. DCF is used by all midstream companies.


    "Using the "Net Cash Flow" approach, here are KMI's numbers using its 12/31/14 consolidated audited financial statements (which reflect the reorganization)"

    There were many one-time cost associated with the MLP roll up that makes this analysis dubious. Try using the annualized Q1 2015 numbers for a better argument.
    Jun 24, 2015. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Count Out Kinder Morgan [View article]
    If the ETE bid fails, WPZ will be converted into WMB shares. Currently, the discount is massive, which I think is unjustified.
    Jun 24, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Count Out Kinder Morgan [View article]
    ChesterNZ,

    Best thing about natural gas is that demand capacity is going up all over the place. Mexico is upgrading its power generation to use natural gas. Who handles the majority of natural gas exports to Mexico? KMI.
    Jun 24, 2015. 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Count Out Kinder Morgan [View article]
    gawilley,

    I like the warrants. I bought some at under $3 and am already up 10%. I plan to hold them for the long-term. KMI is a $50 stock by nearly any measure.
    Jun 24, 2015. 01:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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