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Albert Alfonso

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  • Apple's Last Chance To Dominate The High End [View article]
    Ashraf,

    A "crack" or an actual fact? It absolutely does have to do with the article as your conclusion noted that apple was "Dead money at best."
    Jan 6 01:34 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Last Chance To Dominate The High End [View article]
    Ashraf,

    Obviously I did, hence my reply.

    If you want a more specific critique I would argue you are not making a good case with the market share data.

    Apple is a US focused company while Samsung is more international. Of course Samsung is going to do well overseas, that is their territory. You should be incorporate US market share data to get a better picture.

    Also, you are missing a key detail: Apple's volumes grew y/y. This was the case even with the "smaller" 5s. Size of phones is only one factor for consumers.
    Jan 6 01:10 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Last Chance To Dominate The High End [View article]
    Apple is hardly dead money. Instead it has faced PE contraction as its growth prospects decline. It is simply too big to grow fast and is priced with an appropriate PE ratio. Also, Apple is number one where it counts, namely the US.

    Want an example of dead money? Take a look at Intel's 10 year chart.
    Jan 6 12:38 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Lured In By Armour Residential REIT's Monthly Dividends [View article]
    Another great point.

    mREITs make the most money in stable interest rate environments. The speed at which we saw rates move and thus MBS premiums evaporate is exactly what caused the sharp fall in book values.

    I know CYS, which is one of my holdings, noted this in their recent presentation. They basically levered up in late April, right before the great collapse in MBS premiums.
    Jan 5 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Lured In By Armour Residential REIT's Monthly Dividends [View article]
    nsalat,

    Excellent point.

    ARR cannot really buy back meaningful amounts of stock without putting its dividend at risk. Here it how it works: mREITs sell their MBS at par to then buy back stock at discount hence its a accretive act for BV. However, it also lowers leverage and thus net interest income.

    For example, I know AGNC is now 100% focused on book value preservation rather than on generating income. Their dividend is probably going to come in lower for Q1.
    Jan 5 11:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources' CEO Hosts Agreement to Acquire Properties in Wyoming Conference (Transcript) [View article]
    Natural gas prices may drop below $4 but are unlikely to breech $3 again. Demand is surging with new major projects announced in the gulf coast. Utilities are also dumping coal and switching to gas at a breakneck pace. The US is supplying Mexico with nearly all of its natural gas imports with demand growing at 20%+ per year. Even Canada is importing natural gas from the US. I think we may see a $5 handle by year end.
    Jan 3 10:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Lured In By Armour Residential REIT's Monthly Dividends [View article]
    Announced and declared are very different things. ARR declares dividends quarterly, 3 months at a time. Here is a link for the Q4 2013 declaration.

    http://bit.ly/KorSdZ
    Jan 3 09:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Lured In By Armour Residential REIT's Monthly Dividends [View article]
    tstreet,

    It is hard to do a comparison without the Q4 results. Also, no other mREIT has given guidance as to thier expected 2014 dividends. We do know that the larger mREITs (AGNC and NLY) recently lowered their dividend payouts.

    ARR has not yet declared its Q1 dividends. However, it is fairly safe to assume it will come in at $0.05 per month.

    That being said, I think the company is being way too optimistic by pre-announcing all of its 2014 dividends as it gives investors a false sense of security.
    Jan 3 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Lured In By Armour Residential REIT's Monthly Dividends [View article]
    ClintonSPX,

    Shorting stocks is not my game. Too much risk for the reward. Also, ARR is likely to trade flat as long as its dividend remains at its current level.
    Jan 3 05:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Lured In By Armour Residential REIT's Monthly Dividends [View article]
    Below is a list of my income holdings. As a general rule, I keep these positions between 2 and 3% of my total portfolio size. Exceptions are EFC and VNR, which have 2x and 3x size respectively.


    BDCs: PSEC, RSO (technically a commercial mREIT)

    REITs: O

    mREITs: AGNC, CYS, EFC (technically a LLC)

    MLPs: Midstream: OKS Upstream: VNR, MEMP, QRE
    Jan 3 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher Natural Gas Prices Should Be A Boon For Pengrowth Energy [View article]
    I would argue that natural gas is only one of the inputs for thermal oil. The biggest risk factor by far is the current WSC to WTI spread, which remains elevated. The easing of the transportation bottlenecks, such as with pipeline expansions, will solve many of these problems. During Q3, BTE posted its best ever quarterly results with record FFO and production. I do not really see them struggling with current natural gas pricing.

    Disclaimer: I am long both BTE and PGH.
    Jan 3 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher Natural Gas Prices Should Be A Boon For Pengrowth Energy [View article]
    Selling shares to put recover your original investment might be a good move. You'll be essentially playing with the house's money. However, with PGH's NAV currently at $8.61 per share, you'll may be leaving money at the table.
    Dec 31 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher Natural Gas Prices Should Be A Boon For Pengrowth Energy [View article]
    Hi Michael,

    Thank you for the kind words. I do not own nearly as many shares in the company but it is still my largest position.

    One of the criticisms of Lindbergh was that it was selling cheap natural gas to invest in the more expensive heavy thermal oil. This argument does carry some merit, especially given the rise in natural gas prices. However, PGH was facing serious cash flow problems if it did not sell assets to fund Lindbergh. Balancing risk with reward is important and I think the company has a good balance ATM.
    Dec 31 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher Natural Gas Prices Should Be A Boon For Pengrowth Energy [View article]
    jminvest,

    It is still early to tell if natural gas prices will stay at current levels through 2014. However, if we assume current pricing and apply a similar discount to AECO prices, netbacks per MCF would improve from $0.25 to $0.35.

    I actually think natural gas prices may average up to $4.50 to $5.00 next year. Demand is exploding higher with many companies investing to use and or export it.
    Dec 31 02:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources Hits A Homerun With Purchase Of Natural Gas Assets [View article]
    Let us meet half way and say its a double, lol.

    I agree, by drilling themselves VNR is taking on more risk. The natural gas production will be hedged through 2017 so not a ton of risk there.

    The biggest risk factor IMO would be with the NGLs. I know LINE has had trouble with them due to their current weak pricing. NGLs are current not hedgeable so 100% of their price fluctuations impact DCF.
    Dec 31 02:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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