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Albert Alfonso

 
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  • Kinder Morgan: The Growth Story Continues [View article]
    Harold,

    That is a tricky question. KMP, by defining this project as "expansion capital, has to pay IDRs to KMI on the incremental cash flow increases. If it were maintenance then this would not apply.

    Having IDRs, in essence, increases the cost of capital for KMP. A project that would normally yield a 20% return now only generates 10% for KMP, 10% for KMI. I believe this is the primary reason for the discount on the unit price.
    May 10 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Growth Story Continues [View article]
    Uncle Ted,

    I apologize for the confusion. KMP trades at a 40% discount to peers such as (MMP), (EPD), (PAA) based on its DCF multiple (DCF per unit divided by unit price).
    May 10 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential REIT: A Surprising Decline In Book Value [View article]
    starmanrules,

    ARR has higher leverage ("risk"), above average BV volatility, and lowest spread of its peers.

    ARR may be a fair to good stock if the current stability in the MBS market continues. However, at least based on historical data, it carries above average risk in an already high-risk sector.
    May 10 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Annaly Capital [View article]
    I am not saying to short the stock. Rather, I am saying not to buy the "dip".

    Holding a short position in NLY would be expensive. You need to pay the dividend plus any borrowing costs.

    May 9 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Buying Opportunity Might Present Itself For Annaly [View article]
    RS,

    When looking at a mREIT like NLY, you need to at least provide some data from its peer group.

    How large is NLY's discount to BV?

    5% as of yesterday' close, will increase to 8 to 10% at the open.

    Do other mREITs trade at discounts to BV?

    Yes. Indeed most others trade at larger discounts. As an example, CYS and HTS are at 10%, AGNC at 6.5%.

    Is NLY 10% yield inline with its peers?

    Nope. CYS offers a 14.70% yield, 400 basis points above NLY. AGNC offers a 11% yield, while HTS offers a 10% yield.

    When you add this to the fact that core eps now no longer covers the dividend, you can see that others can have a different viewpoint. http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 8 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Annaly Capital [View article]
    RS,

    I will be listening to the CC today. I am sure they will try to spin the results.

    However, a dividend cut to $0.25 leaves you with a 8.50% yield. Compare that to say (AGNC) (11.30%), or the much safer (O) (5.0%) and (MO) (4.80%), and you will see income investors flee.
    May 8 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Annaly Capital [View article]
    I would never suggest shorting a stock with a double-digit dividend yield.

    That being said, NLY clearly underperformed. The stock ran up into the quarter. We will see it give up some of those gains today.
    May 8 08:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream -6.3%; higher costs/spending pressure EPS [View news story]
    Investors in (WIN) need to remember that its "adjusted" FCF figures are not the real deal. In reality, WIN is spending close to 100% of its cash on dividends plus capex. Little is left over to pay for unexpected expenses.
    May 8 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: A 12% Yield, Now 'Locked In' For The Year [View article]
    Matt,

    From the conference call,

    "So that would actually be an offset to any decreases in that investment income and it would also be an increase to taxable earnings and distribution. So from a shareholder standpoint there is little to no downside to a restatement if it is required by the SEC."

    and

    "Taxable income, net income, NAV would all increase on a historical basis and we believe that net investment income would become much less useful of a metric for our taxable earnings and distribution requirements. And as we’ve said in our release, we probably would need to show that sometime we have adjusted NII to clarify things for investors which would also be expected to go up through the incentive fee reduction."

    It seems as if this issue would lower mostly PSEC's incentive fees. For shareholders, we would see little impact on the dividend or NAV front.

    The company noted that they are still calculating the full impact. Will be an interesting read for sure.
    May 7 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: A 12% Yield, Now 'Locked In' For The Year [View article]
    BDC Buzz' chart seems pretty fair. PSEC has clearly been lagging in terms of its coverage ratio. The timing for a few of the new loans likely impacted the results. However, the dividends for 2014 have been declared, lessening the risk of a sudden dividend cut.
    May 7 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential REIT: A Surprising Decline In Book Value [View article]
    BAWE,

    ARR has been underperforming its peers since its creation. If you have to own a mREIT, why choose the clear laggard? There are much better options out there.
    May 7 10:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: A 12% Yield, Now 'Locked In' For The Year [View article]
    Matthew,

    I am just now reading through the 10-Q.

    It seems as if PSEC was caught off-guard by the SEC decision. They are appealing. It looks like the (NICK) transaction will be at the very least pushed back or scrapped all together.

    BTW, I took advantage of this dip to buy more shares at $10.55.
    May 7 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: A 12% Yield, Now 'Locked In' For The Year [View article]
    Yup, it is a typo. Should be fixed soon.
    May 7 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PepsiCo, Inc. declares $0.655 dividend [View news story]
    Very nice dividend increase from (PEP).
    May 6 08:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: What To Expect Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    user 15556362,

    Different articles for different target audiences.

    My article is simply an overview of the quarter and what to expect heading into earnings. On the other hand, Mr. Kennedy provides in-depth analysis and estimates, trying to figure out key metrics (NII, BV) using publicly available information.
    May 6 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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