Seeking Alpha

Albert Alfonso

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Albert Alfonso's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Looking For Alpha In The Upstream MLP Sector (September 2014 Update) [View article]
    RLP,

    I think the upstreams are more vulnerable to the argument that they are overvalued than the midstream sector. Most are small, thinly traded, and held by weaker hands.

    Hedgeye famously put a $10 price target on LINE and a even lower one on LNCO. The rationale was that they are not generating any earnings. This was demonstratively false, though it did not prevent Barron's running with the story.
    Sep 28, 2014. 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Alpha In The Upstream MLP Sector (September 2014 Update) [View article]
    That is actually a good question. It is due to the derivatives (hedges) impacting EBITDA. This is also the reason why reported net income varies so much between the stocks.
    Sep 28, 2014. 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Alpha In The Upstream MLP Sector (September 2014 Update) [View article]
    Book value is not at all a good metric for comparing the upstream mlps. Enterprise multiple is also a poor gauge. Many of the companies do provide an "adjusted EBITDA" metric, though this tends to be very noisy and hard to put into a per unit figure.
    Sep 26, 2014. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Alpha In The Upstream MLP Sector (September 2014 Update) [View article]
    Pablo,

    I wrote this article partly to provide a starting point for those looking at the upstream MLP sector. You'll be surprised by how much legwork is required to do this.

    I have had many readers ask about some of the lesser known names. Besides LINE and maybe VNR, these stocks are pretty much unknown, especially compared to the midstreams.
    Sep 26, 2014. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Resource Partners Makes A Big Bet On The Eagle Ford [View article]
    Creese,

    A few thoughts:

    There seems to be too much supply of ARP common units and not enough demand. I know for example VNR and MEMP both can issue equity and recover fairly quickly.

    I also think investors are looking for the next Linn energy type fall. ARP has been a target of short-seller pressure in the past.

    Another issue is IDRs, as I noted in the article. ARP is very unlikely to increase its distribution short to medium term.
    Sep 25, 2014. 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential REIT: A 15% Yield With Outsized Risk [View article]
    The preferred stock is a much safer way to play the mREITs. You'll get paid first, always ahead of the common. However, you'll be giving up quite a bit of yield and would not benefit is the stock rallies.
    Sep 25, 2014. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential REIT: A 15% Yield With Outsized Risk [View article]
    Wilson,

    I am more than willing to discuss specific facts. How is my article biased? What is the other side of the story?

    ARR did not cover the dividend during Q2 and only barely did during Q1.

    The stock is trading way below book value so the market is pricing in risk.

    A dividend cut in a high income security almost always leads to a decline in the stock price.
    Sep 24, 2014. 07:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Alpha In The Upstream MLP Sector (September 2014 Update) [View article]
    Speed,

    You'll get a credit for the 15% tax. Also, some brokers will not take the tax out.
    Sep 24, 2014. 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Alpha In The Upstream MLP Sector (September 2014 Update) [View article]
    Bruce,

    The upstream names are usually linked with income investing. A 10% yield compounded long-term provides a very high return.

    I agree that the midstream GPs are an attractive investment. Though those are more for the dividend growth crowd.
    Sep 24, 2014. 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Alpha In The Upstream MLP Sector (September 2014 Update) [View article]
    Uncle Pie,

    I was actually thinking of doing a similar analysis using the former Canadian royalty trusts. I currently own PGH and BTE and used to own PVX before it was bought out.
    Sep 24, 2014. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Alpha In The Upstream MLP Sector (September 2014 Update) [View article]
    cem1976,

    It should be 100% "hedged". This basically means that many of these names have all of their expected natural gas and oil production under derivative contracts. This allows for much clearer long-term guidance and greatly reduces price volatility.
    Sep 24, 2014. 11:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Strikes A Deal With Exxon [View article]
    RM13,

    Stocks that yield over 10% are plentiful.

    A few sectors:

    mREITs: (AGNC), (NLY), (CYS), (RSO), (ARR), (MTGE),

    BDCs: (PSEC), (FSC)

    upstream MLPs: (QRE), (BBEP), (LRE), (ARP)

    downstream MLPs: (NTI) (ALDW), (CVRR)

    ...and MANY MANY more.
    Sep 23, 2014. 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Strikes A Deal With Exxon [View article]
    As noted by RLP, LINE was trading at a large premium to peers. This was partly a result of its huge size.
    Sep 22, 2014. 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Strikes A Deal With Exxon [View article]
    Elliot,

    It should be both. The increased production should boost DCF by $20M to $30M. The company is also saving $20M to $30M per year from reduced capex. This info is from page 5 of the linked presentation:

    http://bit.ly/1C5lEVC
    Sep 22, 2014. 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Capital Agency Keeps Dividend Intact [View article]
    facts never get in the way of a good talking point...
    Sep 21, 2014. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,657 Comments
2,000 Likes