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Albert Alfonso

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  • Can Calumet Specialty Products Partners Turn The Corner? [View article]
    Hi,

    Are you referring to the greenfield refinery JV with (MDU)? During the CC, CLMT reaffirmed that it expects it to be completed during Q4 2014.
    Dec 4 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Refining Remains A High-Risk Play On Crack Spreads [View article]
    I believe it is easier to export refined products. I know that PSX is exporting gasoline to Latin America and making quite a nice profit doing so.
    Dec 4 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West's Strategic Review: Too Little, Too Late? [View article]
    Dar43054 and others:

    Regarding PWE, in markets there needs to be buyers and sellers. Likewise, there are often winners and losers. PWE may have been a sell earlier, but that does not mean it is a sell now. Investors need to look forward, not backwards.

    IMO, PWE is a wait and see stock as it had underdelivered and underperformed for many quarters. I honestly would not go long nor short the stock.
    Dec 2 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Refining Remains A High-Risk Play On Crack Spreads [View article]
    The correction was just posted. You may need to refresh your browser to see the change.
    Nov 25 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Refining Remains A High-Risk Play On Crack Spreads [View article]
    Hi Phil,

    Yup, I forgot to add in the $0.18 from Q1. A correction should be posted shortly.

    I would note that for Q3 CVRR released $60M from its cash reserves to payout the $0.30 distribution. Adjusting for this, cash available for distribution was negative $0.11 in the quarter.
    Nov 25 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Refining Remains A High-Risk Play On Crack Spreads [View article]
    shawn,

    If you would read the article, I did not tell anyone to sell CVRR. Indeed, I stated that fundamentals for refiners have improved in Q4. Also note that I am long (NTI), which is in the same sector.
    Nov 25 03:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: The Recent Decline Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I typically do not view buying and sell stocks as gambling. In a casino, the odds are stacked against you. If you stay long enough, you'll eventually go home with 100% losses.

    In investing, if you chose fundamentally sound companies at attractive valuations, you typically will make a decent return over the long run. There are a few exceptions, such as Eastman Kodak, Pitney Bowes, GM etc. But those companies faced secular declines in their core businesses.
    Nov 24 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: The Recent Decline Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Zach,

    Buying stocks is an exercise in balancing risk with potential rewards. If one were to equate FFO with EPS, a 15 to 16X multiple is a reasonable multiple and inline with historical trends.

    Of the stocks mentioned, (O) has arguably the lowest risk as its payout ratio (using FFO) is below 90%, has a diverse customer base, and is not tied down to a specific sector. Also, a few of the names are extremely small, which may lead to some price distortions.
    Nov 24 11:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: The Recent Decline Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    WallStreetDebunker,

    Yes, I agree, Realty was trading at a very high premium earlier in the year. FFO growth in the single digits does not deserve a 20x multiple. However, with the recent pullback, I think the stock is a buy as the risk/reward is now much more inline with reality.
    Nov 23 03:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: A Solid Choice For Monthly Income [View article]
    Zorro,

    Yes, VNR's debt is high, but that comes with the territory in the upstream MLP sector.

    Yes, some of the Bakken production is less than ideal, but what company does not have some dead weight?

    I would argue that the vast majority of investors in the stock are looking for yield. The coverage ratio was well above 1.00X last quarter even without an acquisition. This means that the company can pretty much wait for the right asset at a good price.
    Nov 21 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Newcastle Investment's Move Into Senior Housing May Prove To Be Quite Profitable [View article]
    Hi Bob,

    NCT bought the assets from its manager Fortress, not from SNH. I probably should have chosen a better title. Sorry for the confusion.
    Nov 21 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newcastle Investment's Move Into Senior Housing May Prove To Be Quite Profitable [View article]
    Exactly. Being able to issue equity at a 5%ish yield opens up a whole other level of potential transactions. IMO, Cost of capital is the key factor holding back NCT.
    Nov 20 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newcastle Investment's Move Into Senior Housing May Prove To Be Quite Profitable [View article]
    The senior housing assets are coming from NCT's manager Fortress. I would also like more details, such as IRR estimates and current pricing. Regardless, these sort of "dropdowns" are typically accretive for the acquiring party.

    On a side note: $NRZ has been such a disappoint. I really thought they would be unlocking some value with the spinoff. Heres hoping for a dividend increase in the coming weeks.
    Nov 20 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worst Case Scenario Just Came True For Alon USA Partners [View article]
    Things are looking better for Q4. However, a turnaround is planned for the big spring refinery in Q1 2014.

    I think Q3 was the nadir in terms of the stock price. Lots of factors really took a toll.
    Nov 18 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Downside In Textainer [View article]
    Hi Casey,

    Great article on (TGH). I agree, it will trade sideways to down for the next few months. I think there is too much liquidity in the container market that needs to be cleared out. However, the company seems to not want to lease out at uncompetitive rates. No need to lock in subpar returns.
    Nov 18 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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