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Albert Alfonso  

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  • A Closer Look At ONEOK Partners [View article]
    kefia,

    Rumors are swirling that OKE could be buying out OKS. This is all speculation, but where there is smoke there is often fire...
    May 13, 2015. 09:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Cos. to buy Williams Partners in stock deal valued at $13.8B [View news story]
    Wow, what a MAJOR move.
    May 13, 2015. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Thoughts On Pengrowth Energy [View article]
    As a minor aside,

    Lindbergh could self-fund phase 2 (up to 12.5K BBl/D) capex if oil reaches $90 per BBL. Phase 3 (which was for 25K BBL/D) would require only modest levels of debt.
    May 12, 2015. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Thoughts On Pengrowth Energy [View article]
    ca7711,

    You are clearly misinformed.

    Raising $1 billion in equity now would increase the float by 60%+! There is no way the market could digest that amount of equity. These sort of shelf offerings are typical for E&Ps, BDCs, mREITs, etc.

    PGH has not issued equity to fund Lindbergh capex! They sold assets, as the plan is to shift the production base to have a lower capital intensity. They have stated that will not use equity to fund any capex, rather either debt or asset sales.

    Also, the increase in the share count was due to the NAL energy merger. Factoring that out, PGH has only increased its float 7% since 1/2012 (3 years, ~2% each year), mostly due to the DRIP which has a very high participation rate.
    May 12, 2015. 08:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners - The Distribution Is Not In Danger [View article]
    GiorgioFL,

    If you bought in at that price they you would have seen energy prices fall 50%+.

    Reason for the recent under performance are optics. Other E&Ps MLPs have cut their distributions, raising the coverage ratios, while MEMP has held steady. They are getting punished for not cutting, which seems counterintuitive.
    May 12, 2015. 07:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Thoughts On Pengrowth Energy [View article]
    That is a shelf offering, which are very common for E&Ps. They need to file these in case they do want to raise equity quickly. The size should tell you that this is a boiler plate, non-news, event. A $1B capital raise would dilute shareholders by 60%+.
    May 12, 2015. 07:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency book value slips in April [View news story]
    Book value is up a penny when adjusted for the dividends. Title is misleading.
    May 12, 2015. 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Thoughts On Pengrowth Energy [View article]
    gawilley,

    I feel your pain. I went from a ~40% unrealized gain to a ~10% unrealized loss.

    To be frank, FFO was not down as much as I was expecting during Q1. $0.22 at $45 or less oil is impressive. With oil now at $60, ffo should be up to $0.25 to $0.30.
    May 12, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon scoops up AOL for $4.4B [View news story]
    This is an odd move for VZ. They already have too much debt from the wireless consolidation. They should be focusing on lowering debt, not buying speculative assets like AOL.
    May 12, 2015. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Thoughts On Pengrowth Energy [View article]
    mac1943,

    That number is still up in the air. However, the next phase should be much bigger, but the cost per flowing boe will be lower as much of the needed infrastructure was built in phase one. They need prices to hold above $65 per bbl to even think about doing phase 2.
    May 12, 2015. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Thoughts On Pengrowth Energy [View article]
    Sure, including a large non-cash expense and factoring out hedges does paint a different picture. However, it does not reflect the current reality.

    Fact is PGH was very much cash flow postive in Q1, despite the very low oil prices. Debt was lowered and capex plus dividends were fully funded.

    In addition, considering Q1 was low point point for oil price, netbacks for Q2 are bound to be much higher. Oil prices are up ~$15 per BBL and the discount to WTI tends to fall now that the winter is over.
    May 12, 2015. 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ONEOK, Inc - Buying The Dip [View article]
    Random Logic,

    DCF for MLPs refers to distributable cash flow, not discounted cash flow. To get a good ball park of this, start with net income add back non-cash items, and add back maintenance capex.
    May 9, 2015. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Goldman Sachs Had It Wrong [View article]
    Bill,

    Term should have been "less of a headwind" but I think most get the drift. The dollar rally at the start of the year seems to have been stopped in its tracks. This is good news for PM and other companies with a large overseas presence.
    May 8, 2015. 06:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Goldman Sachs Had It Wrong [View article]
    Roger,

    A rate hike has been "imminent" since late 2013. Truth is nobody knows what the Fed will do. They have a dual mandate (inflation versus growth) and both are below where they should be.
    May 8, 2015. 06:01 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ONEOK, Inc - Buying The Dip [View article]
    SocialD,

    I would keep PSXP. Its a great growth MLP.
    May 8, 2015. 12:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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