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Albert Alfonso  

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  • Don't Buy The Hype - Oil Prices Are Down Due To Short Sellers [View article]
    It is not just the Saudis. Iran, Iraq, and the gulf states have all stated that they are going to increase supply to drive prices lower.

    One fact often ignored is that there is not much excess capacity left. The best estimate is that there is ~1.5M to 2.0M bpd of spare capacity, much of which is high cost. By comparison, there was something like 8M of spare capacity during the 1980s.
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Needs To Combat The Persistent NAV Discount [View article]
    TMFDeej,

    Here is the issue -- PSEC's assets are independently valued. It would be fraud if they are inflated. If you have any insights which shows these "wildly optimistic" estimates I would love to read it.
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:01 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Needs To Combat The Persistent NAV Discount [View article]
    razz,

    Usually, repurchased shares are not retired right away. It could be them holding shares to issue for the DRIP. These buybacks would suffice for over a year's worth.

    Speaking of the DRIP, we could see it getting axed. Makes no sense to issue shares at a 30% discount even if they are going to existing shareholders.
    Aug 26, 2015. 09:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners Maintains Its Distribution - For Now [View article]
    2x coverage ratio in Q2. Is this really a surprise? BBEP, unlike LINE, dealt with its debt issue by issuing the preferred units and high yield note in April. Was painful, but it did buy them some time.
    Aug 25, 2015. 08:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean board seeks to suspend dividend [View news story]
    Wow, so they are canceling two already declared quarterly dividends? This is the first time I have seen this. They must really need the cash...
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision Blizzard Still Looks Like A Short (But I've Been Wrong So Far) [View article]
    VM,

    The FIFA series is utter junk. It is derivative product with little to no innovation. The same holds true for Madden. If EA somehow loses those licenses people will realize just how creatively bankrupt they are.

    As for WoW, it is showing its age. However, I have a feeling they will see a boost next year with the new expansion and the major movie coming out. Subscriber losses have typically come from the Asian market and those players tend to come back when an expansion hits.

    As for overwatch, I do not think it will do too well. FPS is a hard genre to break into. They'll have to come out with an extremely compelling product to gain market share.
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Gets A New CFO [View article]
    I was not talking about Rockov. I was referencing the idea that a CFO would just sign off on anything their CEO wanted.
    Aug 25, 2015. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Gets A New CFO [View article]
    RE,

    I'll defer to you since you seem to know the inner workings of these E&Ps. However, I sure hope most CFOs are more than sycophant CPAs who rubberstamp deals for the CEO/chairman.
    Aug 25, 2015. 04:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Gets A New CFO [View article]
    DJ,

    You gotta add some cash for maintenance capital when calculating DCF. Even if they defer spending, they would still need to eventually replace the reserves to keep production flat.
    Aug 25, 2015. 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Gets A New CFO [View article]
    RLP,

    I think these events are unrelated. This seems like a business decision due to LINE's poor financial management.
    Aug 25, 2015. 03:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Gets A New CFO [View article]
    Raw Energy,

    While the CFO does not determine the prices, they are the ones who punch in the numbers to see if a deal makes sense or not. They are also the ones who are layering in hedges, which LINE is painfully lacking at the moment.

    I just find it odd that the CFO left with little to no warning. LINE has a lot of debt and that position is arguably now more important than ever. This feels like a firing, though the language in the press release claims it was a mutual agreement.
    Aug 25, 2015. 03:08 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision Blizzard Still Looks Like A Short (But I've Been Wrong So Far) [View article]
    I think shorting here is rather foolish. The valuation is a tad high, but hardly outside the sector norm. Unlike EA, Blizzard creates original IPs and is not reliant on brands such as FIFA and Madden. Blizzard has successfully gain market share in the MOBA community with HOTS. Same thing has happened with hearthstone. WoW remains a major cash cow even with the lower player numbers.
    Aug 25, 2015. 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baytex Energy - A Bitter Pill To Swallow [View article]
    SeatleView,

    The price action is a classic case of a capitulation and a capital rotation. BTE, with no dividend, is now a pure oil play. We are going to see some severe volatility (up and down) until oil finds its true price. I am taken advantage of the dip to lower my cost basis to below $10. My initial buy was ~$40... ouch.
    Aug 25, 2015. 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baytex Energy - A Bitter Pill To Swallow [View article]
    PGH has better hedges and is cash flow positive at lower prices.

    BTE has more upside if oil were to ever see $60+.

    Both are ridiculously cheap. PGH should generate ~$0.80 per share in FFO for the year.

    As for the dividend, they should scrap it just like BTE. No sense paying out so much cash.
    Aug 24, 2015. 03:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ONEOK - A Merger Needs To Happen Sooner Rather Than Later [View article]
    I agree that it would make sense for OKS to buy OKE. This is pretty much what EPD did a few years back. However, OKS unit price is simply too low, which would result in a very high cost of capital to offer equity and the company really does not have low enough leverage to issue cash.
    Aug 21, 2015. 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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