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Albert Alfonso

 
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  • Pengrowth Energy: Weathering The Storm [View article]
    gawilley,

    You make some good points.

    I would add that TV business channels are also pretty much an echo chamber. In 2012/2013 everyone was bashing Apple. In 2014 everyone changed tune and loved it again.

    For most of 2014, everyone was an energy bull. As soon as the sentiment shifted, everyone became a bear. Notice that the investment banks all had to cut their WTI forecasts from $80 to $100 to $40 to $60.

    As for my opinion, US shale production cannot be sustained below $70 to $80.
    Jan 26, 2015. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy: Weathering The Storm [View article]
    I actually own both AAPL and PGH, would not sell either a current prices. AAPL trades at a 15x PE and a under 1x PEG ratio. Best large cap growth stock out there.
    Jan 26, 2015. 04:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy: Preparing For The Worst [View article]
    TBL,

    I lower exchange rate is arguably a good thing. Means that production sold in USD will translate into higher CAD.
    Jan 24, 2015. 05:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Penn West Survive 2015? [View article]
    Hendrick3,

    It means that PWE is facing a liquidity event and may need to raise capital. My article was saying that it "could" face one, though I was not thinking it will happen as soon as it did. Not really sure how it can be interpreted as a good thing. It is a clear negative catalyst.
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy: Preparing For The Worst [View article]
    Once a well is producing, shutting it down will cost quite a bit of money. It will also cost quite a bit to restart production. Keep in mind that some wells in the US have been producing oil since the 1930s. As long as its cash flow positive, keeping production online is the way to go.
    Jan 23, 2015. 02:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Penn West Survive 2015? [View article]
    Thanks for the links. Things are getting dicey for this company.
    Jan 23, 2015. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy: Weathering The Storm [View article]
    Hammer,

    "highly cyclical businesses"? Oil is used in increasing volumes every year. Demand is strong and growing! What has happened is that a supply bubble occurred in North America due to unexpected advances in technology. Couple that with OPEC not cutting production when it historically has been the swing producer and you have the current oil market.
    Jan 23, 2015. 01:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy: Weathering The Storm [View article]
    MB,

    PGH did everything according to plan in 2014. Operationally, the company could have not done better. However, oil prices were the real killer.

    I can only imagine what PGH would look like at $80 to $100 oil. I think a $7 to $9 handle would be appropriate. FFO per share would be ~$1.50. Sigh.
    Jan 23, 2015. 01:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy: Weathering The Storm [View article]
    gawilley,

    Yes, PGH has been a painful holding for me as well. I predicted Lindbergh would add tons of low cost production, something that has come true. However, I was blindsided by the 50% drop in oil prices . Actually, very few people saw it coming. To be honest, most of the drop in oil is sentiment based. We were at $70 per BBL before OPEC basically started the pricing war. Pretty much a perfect storm of bad news.
    Jan 23, 2015. 01:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy: Weathering The Storm [View article]
    PGH's estimates assume it will get WTI prices minus a ~12% discount for light oil, and a ~29% discount for heavy oil.
    Jan 23, 2015. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Penn West Survive 2015? [View article]
    John,

    Can you share the link to that piece please?
    Jan 23, 2015. 04:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: A Splendid Quarter To Kick Off A New Era [View article]
    metal27,

    GAAP EPS is not a good proxy for real cash flows due to large amounts of depreciation expenses.

    As shown by the chart, KMI has be using a similar metric to DCF for its dividends since 2011. It is non-GAAP, but it is the way they do it.
    Jan 22, 2015. 02:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: A Splendid Quarter To Kick Off A New Era [View article]
    minor,

    The $0.45 dividend is paid with cash flows generated in Q4 2014. Its just the way KMI has it budgeted. Dividend increases for 2015 are expected to be higher.
    Jan 22, 2015. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Penn West Survive 2015? [View article]
    Light oil from Canada sells at a 10% to 20% discount to WTI. See Edmonton par.
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy: Preparing For The Worst [View article]
    slotman,

    PGH actually could have funded the dividend at the old rate (80% payout ratio). However, they did not want to fund capex with debt. It is in effect hunkering down.
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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