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Albert Alfonso  

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  • A Harsh Downgrade For Linn Energy [View article]
    northhills24,

    I'll like to repeat your point. Diversify! Keep high risk stocks at a very small percent of your total capital invested. I limit exposure to 2.5% for each name. For blue chips, such as GE, KO, AAPL, MO, etc, I'll go up to 10%.
    Jul 23, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners - Get Ready For A Q2 Rebound [View article]
    There is no rhyme or reason to the selling. Everything oil related is down. This smells like a capitulation move.
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Harsh Downgrade For Linn Energy [View article]
    HH,

    You are cherry picking some articles.

    A few months after the May 2013 article I wrote this:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    A few months later in December 2013 I wondered if LINE was overpaying for berry:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    In other words, I became skeptical.

    As to the December 2014 article, LINE was trading at ~$10, you would have been in the green up until mid June. The current decline is a major overreaction. In addition, I became outright bearish starting in April 2015, when LINE was ~$11.25

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Harsh Downgrade For Linn Energy [View article]
    RLP,

    The oil markets have been crazy volatile since late 2014. I think we hit the true bottom at $40 per BBL in Q1. We held the $60 per bbl range for a few months before the Iran deal added more fear. According to a recent report, traders are responsible for the majority of these moves. Hedge funds have placed record short bets on the commodity.

    http://reut.rs/1KmrLtb
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Harsh Downgrade For Linn Energy [View article]
    MEMP is in much better shape compared to LINE. The PE backers have been selling their stake for years. No news there.
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Harsh Downgrade For Linn Energy [View article]
    Raw Energy,

    The report is very bearish. They can claim to rate them "outperform". However, anyone with some reading comprehension can see through that.
    RJ points out that LINE can no long grow via acquisitions. Debt is out of the question and nobody wants the equity.

    I've been hammering the issue with LINE's debt load in recent articles. However, I cannot see why they continue to pay out nearly all cash flows via the dividend. They need to retain some cash to lower debt and fast.
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Harsh Downgrade For Linn Energy [View article]
    stuyoung,

    It is the direction that matters the most. RJ is throwing in the towel. They were one of the last LINE bulls.
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Harsh Downgrade For Linn Energy [View article]
    smurf,

    There are not a lot of shorts. However, the longs were mostly in weak retail investors hands. If this were a COP/XOM institutional investors would be supporting the share prices. The current market is full of sellers and few buyers...
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Harsh Downgrade For Linn Energy [View article]
    gene wiley,

    The Berry merger was a poor one in hindsight. However, the asset swaps are still up for debate.

    I think LINE/LNCO would be a $20 stock if oil were still in the $80-$100 range. At the moment, the market is selling everything oil related.
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Harsh Downgrade For Linn Energy [View article]
    The Barron's piece made Linn out to be a near Ponzi scheme. This turned out to be totally false. The decline is 100% due to oil prices.
    Jul 22, 2015. 05:46 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Surprise Dividend Hike [View article]
    kefia,

    Those assumptions are actually quite bearish. 2016 should see the first US Q/Q production decline.
    Jul 21, 2015. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: A Surprise Dividend Hike [View article]
    Not really magical. COP has cut capex quite abit and has not back bought stock since 2013.
    Jul 21, 2015. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Bears Strike Again [View article]
    PACKER man,

    KMR was an interesting vehicle. Dividends were paid in stock, so the cash flow was retained. However, KMP's coverage ratio always factor in the KMR dividends. Best part of KMR was its tax advantage, discounted valuation versus KMP, and non-MLP status.
    Jul 18, 2015. 02:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Bears Strike Again [View article]
    mawen,

    Most dividends are paid in cash. Not sure just what percent of KMI shareholders choose to DRIP. In any regards, the coverage ratio assumes a100% cash outley.
    Jul 18, 2015. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Did Not Disappoint [View article]
    RLP,

    Yup, that is to be expected. The old KMI only held equity positions and no physical assets. The new KMI now owns a very large midstream asset base.
    Jul 18, 2015. 02:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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