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Albert Alfonso

 
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  • Will Memorial Production Partners Suspend Its Distribution? [View article]
    Casey, Good article. Bad timing.

    http://bit.ly/1wPkpI3

    "This common unit repurchase program reflects our Board of Director's and management's commitment to increasing unitholder value. We believe that at recent trading levels, repurchasing MEMP's common units is a prudent investment, and given our strong balance sheet, we can implement this program and still have sufficient liquidity to grow the partnership through accretive acquisitions and the development of our assets," said John A. Weinzierl, Chairman and CEO. "Further, despite the recent commodity price volatility, we remain confident in our ability to maintain distributions based on our strong asset base and best in class hedging program."
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Finally, Some Good News [View article]
    hhmcdon,

    Heh, I'll pass on the offer. I think the odds are in the coin flip range.

    Knowing LINE, they'll do everything possible to avoid it, even if it means almost no capex. However, they cannot really afford to pay the dividend at WTI $55. No E&P could really.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Finally, Some Good News [View article]
    hhmcdon,

    I do not think I am being too pessimistic. I think it will be cut. This does mean it is not oversold. We will know soon enough.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Cuts Dividend 80%, Now Yields 6% [View article]
    MB,

    I'll add a note to the top regarding the Canadian dollars. Thanks for pointing that out.

    The drilling program was rationalized, cut 25%, yet production only fell 5%. That tells you PWE still has a lot of fat to trim.
    Dec 18, 2014. 07:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The 'Oil Glut' A Myth? [View article]
    What a great article. Really digs into the facts.

    I agree. The oil glut is a myth. What we are seeing is projected supply growth exceeding projected demand growth in 2015. In other words, a "future" oil glut.

    As for the price action, you better believe that some massive manipulation is going on. Oil prices held steady for ages and then all of a sudden they fall ~50%?! Heck, coal saw a more orderly decline and it has been in secular decline since the 1980s.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:47 AM | 35 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Finally, Some Good News [View article]
    DSandman999,

    You make some interesting points.

    In an article I wrote awhile back on KMI, I pondered if WTI will start trading at a premium to Brent. If we cut production in the US/Canada too much, this could happen. Global oil production, say in the Mid East, Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola, etc, is likely locked in as those nations need the oil revenues.

    So far, it seems most E&Ps are lowering capex by at least 25%. I think we are one global crisis away from seeing an epic short squeeze in oil. Yesterday, I saw shares of some E&Ps up 30%. Panic is spreading on both sides.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:40 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Finally, Some Good News [View article]
    What we are seeing with out is an overreaction. Back in 2009, oil fell then quickly recovered. However, keep in mind that back then we were in a global depression.

    I'm actually surprised my numbers for LINE's DCF were as high as they were. This shows you the power of hedging. I think a cut along with a guidance update will send shares/units surging. Market is pricing in a worst case scenario IMO.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Cuts Dividend 80%, Now Yields 6% [View article]
    I also think PWE could get acquired. Talisman was bought out and they were arguably not as undervalued. As I noted earlier, PWE is worth at least $9 per share based on reserves.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Cuts Dividend 80%, Now Yields 6% [View article]
    CYR,

    PWE is worth around $9 per share based on its 2P reserves, net of debt. You'll be buying dollar bills for quarters.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Cuts Dividend 80%, Now Yields 6% [View article]
    Asset sales were used to lower debt.

    Funds Flow "FFO" is the metric you'll want to use. At $500M to $550M, it is still not enough to cover the revised $625M capex budget.
    Dec 18, 2014. 12:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Decisive Cuts In Dividends And Capital Outlays Make Washed Out Oil And Gas Producers A Good Bet [View article]
    MB,

    We normally agree on most issues. However, I do not see PGH lowering its dividend. The payout is well funded by projected FFO, thanks to Lindbergh Phase I. Unlike PWE or BTE, PGH has extensive hedges in place. I project 2015 FFO to be $0.90 to $1.00 per share, while the dividend is $0.48 per share.
    Dec 17, 2014. 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income declares $0.18342 dividend [View news story]
    The payout ratio (based on FFO) is inching lower and is now well below is long-term average. I think O will surprise us with a large 2015 dividend hike in the 5 to 10% range.
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: A 26% Total Return For 2014 [View article]
    DHL,

    Ok, I'll take the bait.

    Since 1/1/2014, AGNC has returned 26%

    Since 1/1/2013, AGNC has returned -7%.

    Since 1/1/2012, AGNC has returned 17%

    Since 1/1/2011, AGNC has returned 39%

    These are all total returns. So, share price gains/loss plus any dividends. In other words, AGNC has seen very robust returns in most years other than 2013.
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: A Bitter Pill To Swallow [View article]
    Regarding SYF,

    Wow, such hate. SYF was an undervalued asset on GE Capital's book. If you like it more than GE, then the trade, if and when it happens, may be to your suiting.

    From several reports I have read, the swap will be accretive to 2015 EPS and slightly hit FCF.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ONEOK: A Pair Of Dividend Growth Midstreams Now On Sale [View article]
    A midstream growing like OKS yielding 8% is getting back to 2009 levels of madness. Market is irrational. Take advantage of that if you can.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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