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Albert Alfonso

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  • The Sell Off In Penn West Is A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I used to have mixed feeling about PWE. But listening to the call, I have turned bearish.

    The company has great assets, no doubt about it. However, prior management fiddled away, used to much leverage, and now the company was forced to make drastic decisions. First came the dividend cut. Now outright large asset sales. PWE's projections seem like "pie in the sky" at best.

    IMO, PWE needs to pull an ERF and diversify out of Western Canada. May be too late to do this however.
    Nov 8 05:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baytex Energy: Increased Use Of Railroads To Mitigate Lower Heavy Oil Prices [View article]
    Hi arbtrdr,

    Yes, using rails costs a lot more per BOE. However, if you recall Q4 2012, WCS spot prices can reach very low. All it takes is one large refinery turnaround or a pipeline at or above capacity for a few weeks to plunge prices.
    Nov 5 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Large Monthly Dividends Continue For Prospect Capital [View article]

    PSEC is a serial offender in terms of diluting shareholders. However, as noted elsewhere, they have been doing this mostly when the stock price is above NAV.
    Nov 5 02:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Encana to cut workforce, dividend, form new royalty company [View news story]
    Canadian natural gas is simply not profitable at current prices. ECA needed to clean house long ago.
    Nov 5 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Rock Energy Partners' New Lower Distribution Is Still Unsustainable [View article]
    TTM EBITDA is probably at its low point, so you may be able to increase this number slightly. However, I still think EROC needs a capital infusion.
    Nov 4 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Getting Back To Basics [View article]
    A key fact overlooked in this article is that PM has access to a much more diversified marketplace for its products. There are still areas where PM can gain serious market share.

    When adjusting for currencies, PM's 2013 has been alright. Wait until the dollar shows some weakness, then PM will show its true colors.
    Nov 4 02:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Partners' Q3: Down YoY, But Better Than Feared [View article]
    UAN is an odd stock. I like its fundamentals but hate its volatility. I am reviewing their quarter and they seemed to have performed well.
    Nov 4 02:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued ConocoPhillips Continues To Outperform [View article]
    I will admit that COP mostly met expectations, but these were raised due to higher prices in Q3.

    @ $94, WTI is still slightly overpriced IMO. Demand is weak and supply seems limitless. However, there is a floor on the price given strong demand from refiners who export based on Brent pricing.

    Regarding Canadian WCS, Q4 is typically a weak quarter for pricing. I would be a buyer of any of the Canadian based producers (SU, BTE, PGH, PWE). Disclaimer: long BTE, PGH
    Nov 4 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued ConocoPhillips Continues To Outperform [View article]

    Factors impacting realized prices per BOE are the production mix (amount of natural gas and NGLs compared to oil) and the prices for the products.

    So yes, different production mixes have a huge impact on realized prices per BOE. Natural gas is currently very cheap which is why capital is not being reinvested in producing it. Conversely, operating expenses per BOE are often very similar for both liquids and gas.

    Hope that helps.

    Nov 4 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Champ Altria Group: A Solid Choice For Income [View article]
    Even though its near its high, MO is still within its typical TTM PE range. At current prices, its not cheap, but not really expensive.

    Cigarette volume declines are a given for US based manufacturers. However, Altria offers some diversification. Should probably trade at a small premium to pure plays such as RAI and LO.
    Nov 4 11:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued ConocoPhillips Continues To Outperform [View article]
    CVX should look into breaking up the company. Its too big, undermanaged, and way undervalued. This would likely unlock some real value.
    Nov 4 11:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued ConocoPhillips Continues To Outperform [View article]
    Hi wigit5,

    Yes, the US Government can definitely have an adverse impact. Throwing another debt-related tantrum would probably push us into negative GDP growth for 2014.
    Nov 4 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillips 66 Q3: Earns Over Half A Billion Dollars Despite A $2 Million Refining Loss [View article]
    Q3 was probably the nadir for crack spreads. If PSX can remain profitable in that environment, then it can really shine in Q4.
    Oct 30 01:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mexican 'Fat' Tax Is Worrisome For PepsiCo [View article]
    Hi obieephyhm,

    rereading the article, I probably should have added more details to better back up my case.

    First, a clarification: PEP is a strong hold to moderate buy at current prices as EPS growth is accelerating.

    Now regarding the Mexican tax:

    PEP's volume growth has been coming mostly from Latin America. Mexico makes up a large chunk of overall Latin American revenues. This growth may slow if its products are hit with a double tax. PEP is more at risk as it sells soda and snacks in mexico.
    Oct 24 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy: Here's Why I Remain Cautious On This Higher-Yielding MLP [View article]

    Thanks for the link, however, my last name was misspelled.

    Also, not sure why you noted NTI's PE ratio, forward yield, and price movements. This is an MLP, thus PE ratio is a near useless metric. The company pays a variable distribution, hence the yield will fluctuate Q to Q. Finally, the price movements have been caused by changes in the WTI/Brent spread. Notice the runup has occurred as the spread has widened?


    disclaimer: long NTI
    Oct 23 01:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment