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Albert Alfonso

 
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  • Penn West: The Chickens Have Come Home To Roost [View article]
    spinergy,

    Calling accounting problems going back 4 years a "molehill" seems like a stretch, even for a PWE bull.

    The issue here is that the accounting was NOT sound, even for parts of 2014. This is a major event anyway you spin it.
    Aug 6, 2014. 08:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: A 12% Yield Trading Under NAV [View article]
    ezrhino,

    Let me clarify that even though I am long PSEC, that does not mean I only cover the good news or try to spin negative events.

    When PSEC was trading above NAV and issuing shares like crazy, I criticized them. I do not like getting diluted. The company has since stopped its ATM program.

    When PSEC does not cover the dividend with NII I highlight it in my article. I also tell my readers that a portion of the dividend is very likely a return of capital.

    Lastly, I always mention PSEC as a high-risk, high-return, investment. I think articles that try portray high-yield stocks as "safe" or "blue-chip" are doing a disservice.
    Aug 6, 2014. 06:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: The Lackluster Coverage Ratio Remains A Concern [View article]
    das555 and others,

    It appears the market is simply removing the "premium" valuation VNR had compared to peers. The company has now posted back-to-back-to-back bad quarters.

    Furthermore, VNR strongly hinted that it will not be boosting its dividend/distribution in the second half of 2014.
    Aug 6, 2014. 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: A 12% Yield Trading Under NAV [View article]
    Stanford,

    PSEC is no longer issuing stock via its ATM program. However to answer your question, issuing stock priced above the NAV is by definition accretive.
    Aug 6, 2014. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: A 12% Yield Trading Under NAV [View article]
    RLP,

    PSEC frequently recycles capital into and out of investments. This was an outlier as it appears they booked a large gain.
    Aug 6, 2014. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: The Lackluster Coverage Ratio Remains A Concern [View article]
    Pablo,

    My wording was poor. Let me explain in detail:

    First, oil is a much bigger chunk of revenue due to its higher price. Of the $123M in revenue, $73M (60%) came from oil sales.

    Second, Production growth offset the price declines seen in natural gas and NGLs.
    Aug 5, 2014. 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: The Lackluster Coverage Ratio Remains A Concern [View article]
    Graham,

    VNR is not going to lower the distribution anytime soon. However, I would not expect any income growth in 2014.
    Aug 5, 2014. 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: The Lackluster Coverage Ratio Remains A Concern [View article]
    RLP,

    I am still long VNR. The quarter was disappointing to say the least. However, it appears maintenance capex is simply inflated.
    Aug 5, 2014. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: Is The Recent Transaction Foreshadowing A Strong Quarter? [View article]
    Jerry,

    I am currently researching the LINE acquisition.

    VNR and LINE are in the same sector and are very similar. However, LINE has been the target of short-sellers and therefore carries more risk.
    Aug 5, 2014. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: Is The Recent Transaction Foreshadowing A Strong Quarter? [View article]
    CF,

    I have a new article coming out which should answer the DCF question.

    Spoiler: VNR's capital program with QEP and ultra is baked into maintenance capex. Maintenance capex is up over 100% Y/Y.

    Due to low natural gas prices, revenues were not high enough to offset the increased costs.
    Aug 5, 2014. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: Is The Recent Transaction Foreshadowing A Strong Quarter? [View article]
    Peter,

    It is a miss. But, digging into the numbers, it appears VNR is increasing capex. More to come in a new article soonish.
    Aug 4, 2014. 04:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: Is The Recent Transaction Foreshadowing A Strong Quarter? [View article]
    Pablo,

    We must be on the same wavelength. I was thinking of the BBEP/QRE merger as well. If VNR misses (sub 1.00x DCF ratio) I may turn bearish.

    Q1 was just plain bad, though new production coming online should more than make up for the DCF shortfall.
    Aug 4, 2014. 01:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Products defends backlog, says others overpromise [View news story]
    What a passive aggressive swipe at KMP/KMI.
    Jul 31, 2014. 05:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baytex Energy Sells Its Bakken Assets [View article]
    They were too small a part of the combined company to make a difference. Less than 5% of production.
    Jul 31, 2014. 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream: Dividend Cut 30%, Stock Rallies 12% [View article]
    Sonia,

    WIN has been paying out more than 100% of its FCF in dividends since 2013. The writing was on the wall. Management did a good job in spinning this as a positive.
    Jul 30, 2014. 10:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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