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Albert Alfonso  

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  • A Robust July For Ellington Financial [View article]

    Looking at the Q1/Q2 numbers, I would say yes, with one condition being that rates do not become too volatile. The Agency MBS portfolio can likely return $0.15 to $0.25 per share per quarter. The non-agency portfolio can return from $0.50 to $0.60 per share per quarter. Backing out expenses ($0.15 per share) we get $0.50 to $0.70.

    This is a conservative estimate. The non-agency portfolio was recently shifted and is still ramping up. EFC also tends to make money by trading, which it has not done much of in 2015.
    Aug 20, 2015. 05:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Robust July For Ellington Financial [View article]

    You really cannot look at the price action for guidance. The market likes to simplify stocks. EFC, being an LLC and run as a hedge fund, has been unfairly lumped in with the mREITs. For a long time they traded at a premium to book value. They are only partially tied interest rates -- they own a large non-agency portfolio.
    Aug 20, 2015. 05:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude inventory shows an unexpected build [View news story]
    Gasoline stockpiles fell hard. Crude oil is mostly up due to increased imports and refinery outages. A slightly bullish report, though the spin will be bearish.
    Aug 19, 2015. 11:18 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy Enters The Battle For Williams [View article]
    We are speculating somewhat. However, based on various news reports, it appears something is on the table. The Williams auction has advanced into its second phase and so far three candidates have emerged (ETE, SE, KMI).

    I am not sure how this will end. However, it is looking more and more likely that Williams (WMB) will be sold.
    Aug 18, 2015. 03:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil continues fall as demand concerns weigh [View news story]
    Another chart which shows just how historically out of line this short selling is:


    Notice that we have more shorts now than back when we were in a recession in 2008/2009.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil continues fall as demand concerns weigh [View news story]

    Not really. Its a record short position. Most traders are going to be naturally long given that they are using or trading the commodity. These are a "small" group of hedge funds who have massive short positions in the millions of barrels range, pure speculators.

    "The number of hedge funds with reported short positions is not especially high and well below the record 84 identified in March (

    But the average short position has almost tripled since June, from under 1 million barrels to almost 3 million, a record and nearly twice the 1.6 million barrels reported in March ("
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil continues fall as demand concerns weigh [View news story]
    I cannot help but roll by eyes when I see people trying to blame China for oil going lower. Hedge funds have gone short the commodity in record numbers recently:

    "Trade data shows that speculators have taken huge bets on further falls. Open interest for short positions in WTI prices - which shows the number of deals betting on lower prices - has almost doubled since the beginning of August to nearly 247,000, even as prices have slumped almost 15 percent."

    "The amount of queries we've received recently about leveraging bets on further price falls has been astonishing," one broker said.

    "Hedge funds and other money managers held short positions in WTI-linked futures and options equivalent to more than 193 million barrels of oil, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

    Money managers had never held a short position that large before, except for a brief period in March, when U.S. crude stockpiles were rising fast and there were fears storage space would run out."


    "The most remarkable feature of the recent drop in oil prices is that hedge funds have become more bearish, not less, the further prices have fallen.

    Increasing bearishness as prices fall is counterintuitive. In theory, there is more potential for prices to drop when prices are high than when they are already lower."
    Aug 18, 2015. 06:58 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra Energy Enters The Battle For Williams [View article]
    I do not think so. Duke is a pure-play utility, I do not see them getting back into the midstream side.
    Aug 18, 2015. 06:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Partners: A Special Situation Play With An 8%-Plus Yield [View article]
    So far, ETE has shown interest in WMB.

    SE has shown interest in WMB and WPZ

    KMI has shown interest, but is likely out due to anti-trust concerns.

    Conclusion: We're going to see a higher bid.
    Aug 17, 2015. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: DirecTV Related Guidance Failed To Impress [View article]
    According to yahoo, consensus for 2016 EPS is $2.74, inline with the updated guidance. Looks like the market was just looking for a reason to sell.
    Aug 13, 2015. 12:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: End Of An Era? [View article]
    GMCR is a long-term investment. They are the clear market leader -- they have a pretty good chance of rebounding. One bad move does not undo years of dominance.
    Aug 13, 2015. 11:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: End Of An Era? [View article]

    Folks are switching from soda to other beverages. But this trend is only occurring in the rich countries. Go to Africa or Latin American and you'll see tons of demand for soda. As those disposable incomes grow, KO will see sales grow as well (adjusted for forex).
    Aug 13, 2015. 11:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: End Of An Era? [View article]
    KO is seeing higher volumes this year. This article did not even mention volumes. Indeed, even soda sales are holding up -- developing countries growth is offsetting declines from North America and Europe. Just because one product segment is seeing declines does not mean that the whole company is suffering.

    This is a very biased piece.
    Aug 13, 2015. 11:14 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Residential Investment Corp. Is Now On Sale [View article]

    I agree 100%. The Fed wants to normalize interest rates, but it will take some time. Some mREIT equities are priced as if we'll see 3%+ short-term rates in the near future. Remember that the Fed made some of the same threats in late 2013, yet nothing happened.

    My guess: 50 to 100 bps higher by the end of 2016.
    Aug 13, 2015. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 56% Annual Return With LRR [View article]

    I just saw that this article suggested NSLP as a takeover play and wanted to add some relevant news.

    In an ideal world, people would do tons DD when putting capital to work on a new investment. However, many do not.
    Aug 13, 2015. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment