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Albert Alfonso  

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  • Vector Group: A Hidden Gem In The Tobacco Sector [View article]
    EBITDA margins for the RE side are pretty bad due to high levels of spending. That segment has been barely profitable, but could become a cash cow if it were turned into a pure-play REIT.
    Jun 3, 2015. 07:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: A New Challenge Emerges [View article]
    JCCIII,

    1995 was 20 years ago. That was when many of the big lawsuits here in the US were started. The MSA was signed in 1998.
    Jun 3, 2015. 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    Hammer,

    I would not be against suspending the dividend. However, given that it requires ~33% of FFO, it is not a big deal.

    As for the production flat number, PGH is not investing much in natural gas, so on a BOE basis, production will go down. However, oil is going to up due to Lindbergh.
    Jun 3, 2015. 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    Lindbergh's production is sold at a ~25%-35% or so discount to WTI. It does not need much sustaining capex, so that is why the cash flow positive number is so low. Do note that this does not include hedges.
    Jun 3, 2015. 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Plains All American For Now [View article]
    Regarding the shut-off valves,

    This is the source: http://bloom.bg/1QqreqT

    As for reputation damage, just take a look at the search history for PAA and "California oil spill". Notice the huge spike in interest. Lots of people are hearing about PAA for the first time via this spill.

    http://bit.ly/1QqrgiD;tz=
    Jun 3, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    fpeebles,

    Oil has moved up and PGH has not followed it higher. That is my concern.
    Jun 3, 2015. 02:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inside My Portfolio: The Holdings I Bet My Retirement On [View article]
    CWMF,

    Doesn't Bimini Capital Management have ties to ARR and JMI? Both of those have been disastrous mREITs.
    Jun 3, 2015. 01:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Plains All American For Now [View article]
    Westfool,

    I agree that this issue is way overblown. However, PAA will still need to spend millions on the cleanup and has suffered reputation damage. There are also calls from California legislators to mandate costly pipeline upgrades (shut-off valves, etc) on existing assets.
    Jun 3, 2015. 01:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    Hammer,

    Debts went up Q/Q due to currency changes (weaker CAD), which were offset by currency hedges.

    As for capex, Q1 was at $98M (due to the pipeline build and Lindbergh), but FY guidance is for $220M-$240M. For the FY, FFO should well exceed capex plus dividends.
    Jun 3, 2015. 12:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    Hammer,

    You are simply fear-mongering.

    These are PGH's hedges:

    http://bit.ly/1GktmBg

    As for dilution, why would they do that?

    They do not have a "huge" debt load. The 2015 debt will be paid down with internal cash flow. The next debt due is for mid 2017, 2 years from now. They have more than enough cash flow to deal with that as well.

    For the details, check page 35 of the PDF below:

    http://bit.ly/1Gktl05
    Jun 3, 2015. 11:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    AEA200X,

    Nope, that is not the case. Lindbergh will make money (cash flow positive) even with WTI at $30 per bbl. They need at least ~$70 oil to make phase II worthwhile (positive IRRs).
    Jun 3, 2015. 10:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    al harris,

    Ahh, the old fundamental versus technical analysis debate.

    If PGH is down due to sentiment, why have its Canadian E&P peers not suffered the same fate? Also, the stock was following oil closely for at least 1 year and suddenly broke that trend in late April.

    I think confirmation bias is at play here. PGH is going down because it has been going down. No real fundamental reasons. Same thing happened to AAPL in 2013.
    Jun 3, 2015. 10:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    graeme4506,

    Lindbergh capex has been put on hold until oil prices recover. Phase I is complete and does not require any more investments.

    As for debt, PGH can pay down all of its debt with ~3 years of FFO. They plan to use incremental cash flows from Lindbergh for debt repayments with ~$90M in 2015 according to guidance.
    Jun 3, 2015. 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    gawilley,

    To be fair, PGH is not nearly as leveraged as BBEP nor has its cash flows collapsed. The dividend is also fully funded.

    PGH is now trading at the same levels as if oil were at $40 per BBL, not $60. Not sure as to why this is happening. Other Canadian E&P's have not had anywhere close to this level of decline.
    Jun 3, 2015. 09:06 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alon USA Partners - A Refiner With A Double-Digit Yield [View article]
    I am pretty sure that the 7/11's are owned by ALJ, not ALDW.
    Jun 3, 2015. 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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