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Albert Alfonso  

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  • Exploring The Risk Level For CYS Investments, Inc. [View article]
    CWMF,

    No discussion of a mREITs risk is complete without looking at leverage. CYS has lower leverage than many of its pure-play agency peers. CYS was a solid investment in 2014 and a crappy one in 2013.

    As for 2015, the Fed hold the reins. If they act as expected, CYS will outperform. If they vacillate again, all hell will break loose. The market is pricing in something in between those two scenarios.
    Jan 13, 2015. 07:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ellington Financial: A 15% Yield Trading At A Double-Digit Discount To Book Value [View article]
    Mktneutralhedger,

    How EFC differentiate itself from competitors? Look at its book value history in 2013. Many mREITs loss close to 40% of their value that year while EFC was flat.
    Jan 12, 2015. 09:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ellington Financial: A 15% Yield Trading At A Double-Digit Discount To Book Value [View article]
    11802571,

    Do not feel that bad. My cost basis is around $22.75. However, I have been long since 2012 and have gotten at least $7 back in dividends.
    Jan 12, 2015. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ellington Financial: A 15% Yield Trading At A Double-Digit Discount To Book Value [View article]
    As was noted in an earlier comment, EFC went from always trading at a small premium/par to a 10%+ discount.

    They are only about 40% to 50% invested in agency paper, so not a pure-play mREIT. They are not a BDC either nor have they issues equity at below book like PSEC or cut the dividend like EFC.

    In other words, not apples to apples.
    Jan 12, 2015. 09:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Bullish Thesis Is Reaffirmed [View article]
    OPEC could become defunct if it does not act soon.

    From my count, the following countries need a bailout ASAP or higher energy prices to survive:

    Venezuela
    Ecuador
    Nigeria
    Angola
    Iran
    Iraq
    Libya

    The following large countries are set to enter a recession due to lower oil prices:

    Russia
    Canada

    The following countries can survive lower oil prices for an extended period

    The gulf oil states
    Saudi Arabia
    Norway
    Jan 12, 2015. 08:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Bullish Thesis Is Reaffirmed [View article]
    richjoy403,

    The "new" Kinder Morgan is made up of the old KMI/KMP. KMI has been increasing its dividend nearly every quarter since 2011 when it reemerged as a public company. KMP was doing so since the 1990s.

    I mean if you think 4 years is not enough to set a precedent then your point is valid. However, I feel comfortable with my statement given the prior history of the older companies plus the projected growth through 2020. As with many investment ideas, things are open to interpretation and does imply one side is wrong and the other right.
    Jan 12, 2015. 08:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Bullish Thesis Is Reaffirmed [View article]
    richjoy403,

    Keep in mind that KMI was publicly traded before 2011. They were taken private in a leveraged buyout.

    http://for.tn/1KCY2wR
    Jan 12, 2015. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Refining: Looking Into The Puzzling 30% Decline [View article]
    Raw crude oil, as an organic material, does have a shelf life before it starts degrading. Refined products are much more stable.
    Jan 12, 2015. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Bullish Thesis Is Reaffirmed [View article]
    I must have gotten confused by the "Edison" in their name. They are a major supplier of silicon wafers to power plants and other end users. I'll add a correction to clarify that.
    Jan 12, 2015. 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alon USA Partners: A Blue Light Special For This ~20% Yielding Refiner [View article]
    CVRR had an outage in Q3 2014. It was minor but still resulting in a few weeks of downtime. Still resulted in a much lower distribution.
    Jan 12, 2015. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alon USA Partners: A Blue Light Special For This ~20% Yielding Refiner [View article]
    ALDW should have insurance which covers a major fire like that. They also have plenty of liquidity available from the revolver.
    Jan 12, 2015. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get 'Sharked' By Manhattan Bridge Capital [View article]
    BT,

    Manhattan Bridge Loan does indeed look like a dog. Too much risk for too little reward. With that sort of credit risk a double-digit yield is needed to make it worthwhile. For example, a similar company RSO yields over 15% and has similar metrics.
    Jan 12, 2015. 07:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Partners: There Is No Need To Panic About The Recent Unit Offering [View article]
    gawilley,

    I sold QRE to recoup my initial capital and left the gains, around 25%, to generate income. That is why I now own a few BBEP units.

    However, my call was more luck than foresight. I do wish more people would have followed me out. If I recall correctly, I got quite the hostile reaction from that piece.
    Jan 12, 2015. 06:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Partners: There Is No Need To Panic About The Recent Unit Offering [View article]
    RLP,

    They will increase the "supply" of BBEP units. Given the recent oil turmoil, demand will be weak if they try to sell.
    Jan 12, 2015. 06:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Partners: There Is No Need To Panic About The Recent Unit Offering [View article]
    GMWOO59,

    As noted elsewhere, these units are already issued. No dilution will occur.
    Jan 12, 2015. 06:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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