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Albert Alfonso

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  • American Capital Agency Corp.: It Could Have Been Worse [View article]
    worst case: Higher short term rates compared to Long Term. And/Or, Treasuries yields well below MBS yields.

    Best Case: Flat rates with wide spreads, little to no price movement in MBS market
    Aug 1 01:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.: It Could Have Been Worse [View article]
    AGNC is making money, but losing BV in the process. Maybe they should up the share buybacks?

    Mr. Kain's team is probably the best in the mREIT sector. That they got crushed means that this BV decline was coming like it or not.
    Aug 1 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.: It Could Have Been Worse [View article]
    You know, I consider my mREIT holdings as sorta a hedge for my long positions as they tend to trade in opposite directions.

    I think that once the fed gets out of the MBS market than some normalcy will set in.
    Aug 1 01:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.: It Could Have Been Worse [View article]
    This risk was totally artificial and caused by the fed. Its telling that every levered REIT, be them agency, hybrid, or even commercial, got smacked.
    Aug 1 01:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.: It Could Have Been Worse [View article]
    I probably will not sell until the stock trades closer to BV. Hopefully this volatility in MBS prices will end soon. I think taper is to start next month.
    Aug 1 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Transformational Acquisition Sets Memorial Production Partners Up For Future Gains [View article]
    MEMP is the cheapest of the three. I think a secondary is coming soonish as the dividend was recently paid.

    QRE was crushed due to the short-sellers and has recovered nicely. I need to see its earnings to give a fresh opinion. Coverage ratio was weak in Q1 and needs to improve.

    VNR is IMO the safest but trades at a premium and with less yield. Below $26 VNR was a steal. I think they are going to announce a transaction with their earnings release.
    Jul 31 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pitney Bowes Soars After Posting A Solid Quarter [View article]
    Pinot44,

    Those same exact points were made about PBI late last year. Since then PBI has gained 60%.
    PBI's FCF is fairly strong, but is declining. PBI is much healthier than Kodak and is taking steps to reduce debt.
    Jul 31 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pitney Bowes Soars After Posting A Solid Quarter [View article]
    Yup, it should be enterprise value (market cap plus net debt). Should be corrected soon.
    Jul 31 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pitney Bowes Soars After Posting A Solid Quarter [View article]
    Hi,

    I agree 100%. PBI is NOT a stock I would own long-term.

    I have always viewed PBI as the definition of a high-risk, high-reward stock. Its cheap, but for a reason, as its core businesses are in secular decline.

    I think that the market likes these moves by PBI's new management. It is paying down debt and selling off struggling segments -- which is exactly what they said they would do. Adjusting for the one-time items in Q2 2012, PBI's FCF was down 10%, not bad considering the decline in revenues.
    Jul 31 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cigarette makers sink after the FDA says menthol in cigarettes appears to pose a greater health threat than regular cigarettes and indicates it plans to issue rules based on its findings. The agency says menthol could make young people more likely to smoke by reducing the irritation and harshness of cigarette smoke. Menthol comprises ~30% of the cigarette market. LO -4.2%, RAI -2.6%, MO -2.5%[View news story]
    This is bad news for LO. They are VERY reliant on Newport for revenues.
    Jul 23 12:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Windstream Should Be Avoided [View article]
    AliveH,

    FCF for WIN has been declining this year. However, it will increase in 2014 as certain capital projects are completed.

    WIN made it very clear in the CC that it will be using this excess cash flow to pay down debt, hence why I think a dividend increase will not be in the cards.

    The board reacted to investor fears and linked WIN's dividend payout ratio directly to management's pay earlier this year.

    Would I invest in WIN as a long-term investment? I would have to say no. CTL and FTR have already bitten the bullet and lowered their dividends. WIN should lower the dividend and pay down its debt IMO. Dividend is mostly a ROC anyways. I would also like to see some revenue growth.
    Jul 23 11:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Woes Weigh Down Philip Morris In Q2 [View article]
    maybenot,

    I am also looking at PM's dividend and hope that the increase comes in higher than expected.
    Jul 22 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Woes Weigh Down Philip Morris In Q2 [View article]
    Volumes were down temporarily in Russia and Japan due to inventory issues. These will likely reverse this quarter. I think PM is optimistic due to it having raised prices and not seeing a corresponding market share decline.
    Jul 22 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Trifecta Of Good News Sends Pengrowth Energy Soaring [View article]
    The premium DRIP program was eliminated. It only applied to Canadian shareholders:

    "On November 1, 2012, Pengrowth announced the suspension of its Premium Dividend Reinvestment Program as a result of its current low share price. The Premium Dividend Reinvestment Program was available only to eligible Canadian shareholders. Pengrowth's regular monthly cash dividend and regular Dividend Reinvestment Program (DRIP) are not affected by this action".

    http://bit.ly/17nHofF
    Jul 18 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Massive Growth Lies Ahead For EQT Midstream Partners [View article]
    The article should now be fixed.
    Jul 17 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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