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Albert Alfonso  

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  • General Electric: The 2015 Outlook Could Have Been Better [View article]
    It was priced into Alstom. I have read that they had reserved up to $1.0B for that settlement.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Finally, Some Good News [View article]
    Jazz,

    The yield is calculated assuming new capital. Obviously, if you bought in higher, the yield would be lower.

    For LINE, I think current and future investors need to pencil in a dividend cut. Oil at $55 is hurting all E&P's.

    Speaking of PGH, it has thankfully recovered from its low. It went from $6 to $2 almost in an instant. Insane given its profitability. I estimated FFO to come in between $0.90 to $1.00 per share in 2015. Historically, these stocks should trade at between 6x to 8x FFO...

    As for PSEC, I hope you are reinvesting dividends. I'm actually green in that name due to these dividends and lowering my basis when applicable. They bounced back after hitting $8 per share. We may see $9 by year-end.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream slides after detailing REIT plans [View news story]
    Windstream's plan is rather confusing. Converting into an LLC will cause major tax issues for those who own the stock in an IRA. The REIT spin-off is a dividend cut anyway you frame it. Furthermore, that REIT is going to trade for a deep discount to peers due to it holding only telecom assets.
    Dec 18, 2014. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Finally, Some Good News [View article]
    Mike4911,

    The closing price was adjusted to factor in the revenues generated between the initial announcement (effective date) and the closing date. That was one of the big reasons for the difference between LINE's DCF for Q3 and estimates for Q4.
    Dec 18, 2014. 12:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Memorial Production Partners' $150M Buyback Is A Huge Positive [View article]
    Ralph,

    I've been asked about SDRL a lot and have always said that the yield was on borrowed time. IMO, if you looked at the numbers, SDRL was not going to be able to cover its dividends for much longer. Furthermore, it has a pile of debt which needed refinancing. As for its MLP, SDLP's dividend seems safe for now.


    As for MEMP, the numbers (and hedges) back them up.
    Dec 18, 2014. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Cuts Dividend 80%, Now Yields 6% [View article]
    Are you looking at costs per BOE? If you factor out heavy oil and natural gas, PWE's light oil has some hefty opex. That is after they have been cutting loose some of their more remote production to reign in costs.
    Dec 18, 2014. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Decisive Cuts In Dividends And Capital Outlays Make Washed Out Oil And Gas Producers A Good Bet [View article]
    Michael,

    Any thoughts on ERF and its budget? Dividend seems safe for now.
    Dec 18, 2014. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Cuts Dividend 80%, Now Yields 6% [View article]
    Lionel Yeo,

    A big issue with PWE are its costs. The company has not had a good track record with containing them. The Canadian oil fields are sorta like a wild west boom town. Heck, there was even a realty TV show made

    http://bit.ly/1wPmmV5
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Memorial Production Partners Suspend Its Distribution? [View article]
    Casey, Good article. Bad timing.

    http://bit.ly/1wPkpI3

    "This common unit repurchase program reflects our Board of Director's and management's commitment to increasing unitholder value. We believe that at recent trading levels, repurchasing MEMP's common units is a prudent investment, and given our strong balance sheet, we can implement this program and still have sufficient liquidity to grow the partnership through accretive acquisitions and the development of our assets," said John A. Weinzierl, Chairman and CEO. "Further, despite the recent commodity price volatility, we remain confident in our ability to maintain distributions based on our strong asset base and best in class hedging program."
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Finally, Some Good News [View article]
    hhmcdon,

    Heh, I'll pass on the offer. I think the odds are in the coin flip range.

    Knowing LINE, they'll do everything possible to avoid it, even if it means almost no capex. However, they cannot really afford to pay the dividend at WTI $55. No E&P could really.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Finally, Some Good News [View article]
    hhmcdon,

    I do not think I am being too pessimistic. I think it will be cut. This does mean it is not oversold. We will know soon enough.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Cuts Dividend 80%, Now Yields 6% [View article]
    MB,

    I'll add a note to the top regarding the Canadian dollars. Thanks for pointing that out.

    The drilling program was rationalized, cut 25%, yet production only fell 5%. That tells you PWE still has a lot of fat to trim.
    Dec 18, 2014. 07:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The 'Oil Glut' A Myth? [View article]
    What a great article. Really digs into the facts.

    I agree. The oil glut is a myth. What we are seeing is projected supply growth exceeding projected demand growth in 2015. In other words, a "future" oil glut.

    As for the price action, you better believe that some massive manipulation is going on. Oil prices held steady for ages and then all of a sudden they fall ~50%?! Heck, coal saw a more orderly decline and it has been in secular decline since the 1980s.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:47 AM | 44 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Finally, Some Good News [View article]
    DSandman999,

    You make some interesting points.

    In an article I wrote awhile back on KMI, I pondered if WTI will start trading at a premium to Brent. If we cut production in the US/Canada too much, this could happen. Global oil production, say in the Mid East, Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola, etc, is likely locked in as those nations need the oil revenues.

    So far, it seems most E&Ps are lowering capex by at least 25%. I think we are one global crisis away from seeing an epic short squeeze in oil. Yesterday, I saw shares of some E&Ps up 30%. Panic is spreading on both sides.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:40 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Finally, Some Good News [View article]
    What we are seeing with out is an overreaction. Back in 2009, oil fell then quickly recovered. However, keep in mind that back then we were in a global depression.

    I'm actually surprised my numbers for LINE's DCF were as high as they were. This shows you the power of hedging. I think a cut along with a guidance update will send shares/units surging. Market is pricing in a worst case scenario IMO.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:35 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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