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Albert Alfonso

 
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  • Pengrowth Energy: The Sky Is Not Falling [View article]
    hoyt15,

    Just as an aside to your comment,

    Let us first finish Lindbergh Phase I and its 12.5K BBLs/D before worrying about the ramp-up to 50K BBLs/D.

    The market is pricing PGH as if Lindbergh were to generate zero cash flows. However, even at current oil prices, I think the company will generate close to $1.00 of FFO per share, give or take 10 cents. This is all thanks to this added production.

    Lindbergh at $90 WTI was supposed to be easily self funded with incremental cash flow growth and a portion of the $1.0B revolver. I would say Lindbergh remains viable all the way to $75 WTI. At the current oil price, PGH may need to revise its Lindbergh projections to stretch out capital spending.
    Dec 9, 2014. 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: The Dividend Needs To Go [View article]
    baddebt,

    Care to provide where I got my numbers wrong?

    I would rather PWE focus on capex than on dividends. Or better yet, sell some off assets to pay down debt and/or buy stock. Stock is trading at 28 cents on the dollar based on reserves.
    Dec 9, 2014. 07:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: The Dividend Needs To Go [View article]
    billgatesisevilus,

    Yes, that error has been fixed. I got tripped up by having to use the year end metrics for determining NAV based on 2P reserves.
    Dec 9, 2014. 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baytex Energy: Buy The Dip? [View article]
    p_eyler,

    Are you suggesting I could have predicted the largest drop in oil prices since the great recession? This move caught everyone by surprise.
    Dec 9, 2014. 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ONEOK: Get Ready For A 14% Dividend Increase In 2015 [View article]
    OKE is a C-corp, not a MLP. Dividends are taxable, though can be safely held in an IRA.
    Dec 9, 2014. 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baytex Energy Slashes Dividend 60%, Now Yields 8.3% [View article]
    Big Mie,

    10/24 = 41.667%

    In other words, the new dividend is only 41.667% of the prior dividend, a 58% cut.
    Dec 9, 2014. 06:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baytex Energy Slashes Dividend 60%, Now Yields 8.3% [View article]
    As an aside and update to this piece, my estimates for FFO are likely on the bearish side of the fence. I am assuming flat costs and a continued wide spread between WCS and WTI.
    Dec 9, 2014. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: The Dividend Needs To Go [View article]
    I found the difference. I was using debt as of year-end 2013. I needed to do this as the 2P reserve metrics at the end of the article were from that time period. Should be fixed soon.
    Dec 9, 2014. 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: The Dividend Needs To Go [View article]
    Nope, that debt number is already adjusted for the asset sale. I should have stated "net debt". Should be fixed shortly.
    Dec 9, 2014. 05:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Cuts Dividend, Now Yields 11% [View article]
    PSEC has not seen $17 per share since 2007, before the great recession. Not at all comparable to the current situation.
    Dec 9, 2014. 04:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Cuts Dividend, Now Yields 11% [View article]
    dkostek,

    What can I say. In my experience, 8-K's often lag press releases. Sometimes, really bad news is buried in an SEC filing and no press release is offered. The press release was made pre-market on Monday. IMO, PSEC did not hide its dividend cut news. Any follower of the stock had ample warning to make a investment decision.

    Also, given the multiple articles on the topic, this event was anticipated by the market. I think the decline would have been much worse if it came out of the blue.
    Dec 8, 2014. 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Cuts Dividend, Now Yields 11% [View article]
    JohnWayne,

    All good points. This news caught me by surprise as this article was initially focusing on the share issuance at below NAV. I'll need to write my thoughts on why this cut is a positive/expected development.
    Dec 8, 2014. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Cuts Dividend, Now Yields 11% [View article]
    The 8-K is in the system. Usually takes a few hours to show up. I just got the email confirm.

    http://bit.ly/1yuiH1T
    Dec 8, 2014. 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Cuts Dividend, Now Yields 11% [View article]
    MoFanatic,

    The annual meeting is basically a rubber stamp. PSEC issued shares below NAV during the financial crisis and made a bundle on the new investments.

    The new lower dividend is inline with projected NII and is much safer. Besides, much of the previous dividend was in theory just a return of capital, so was lowering NAV per share every quarter.
    Dec 8, 2014. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Cuts Dividend, Now Yields 11% [View article]
    jraskib,

    PSEC issued shares at around $10 each in Q3, a 4.5% discount to NAV. There is no way they would want issue shares at current prices.
    Dec 8, 2014. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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