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Albert Alfonso  

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  • New Residential Has Significant Dividend Growth Potential And 20%+ Upside [View article]
    HLSS shareholders got a huge cash dividend payment from the sale. They are expecting another ~$0.70 per share payment sometime in 2016, hence why the stock still has some value.
    May 18, 2015. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ONEOK Needs To Consider Consolidation [View article]
    shotgun99,

    yup. EPD/MMP trade at a large premium to peers since they have proven themselves as growth MLPs.
    May 16, 2015. 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ONEOK Needs To Consider Consolidation [View article]
    polecat,

    Thanks for following. I'll be writing about the downstream (refiner) MLPs next week. Lots of good news on that front and 16%+ yields.
    May 15, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ONEOK Needs To Consider Consolidation [View article]
    pmalter0,

    I understand your need for tax-sheltered income. However, OKS could be faced with lowering its distribution if it cannot boost DCF or remove IDRs. They have some breathing room, but the market is pricing it at a discount to peers for a reason.
    May 15, 2015. 11:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ONEOK Needs To Consider Consolidation [View article]
    GregT,

    One issue with the premium is that OKE has been hit much harder than OKS. OKE was a $70 stock as early as September, versus ~$44.50 today, a 37% decline. In contrast, OKS has only declined ~30% in value.
    May 15, 2015. 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ONEOK Needs To Consider Consolidation [View article]
    pmalter0,

    Incendiary? I am just being realistic. OKS remains undervalued since many think the current distribution is unsustainable. Notice that the Q1 shortfall was largely due to increased IDR payments to OKE. The current structure seems to benefits OKE too much, at the expense of the MLP.
    May 15, 2015. 09:39 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JP Energy Partners: A Small Midstream MLP With 50% To 80% Upside [View article]
    Jion,

    Yup, Q1 was strong. Volume growth across the board, strong DCF, etc. They did not raise EBITDA guidance, which seems to be a bit of sandbagging on their part.

    JPEP should rise as more investors discover the stock. They did their IPO at $20 per unit during the oil rout. I think we'll reach that level eventually.
    May 14, 2015. 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At ONEOK Partners [View article]
    darnoc111,

    Both are undervalued. If I had to guess, OKE would need to offer a 25-30% premium to make it worthwhile. Numbers are very complicated to see if the transaction would result in accretion. My guess is yes, but only due to tax savings.
    May 13, 2015. 01:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Petroleum Inventories [View news story]
    I think spreads are down from Q1 levels, but are still way above Q3/Q4 levels. Refiners are minting money with the WTI/Brent spread and the regional WTI differentials.

    For example, NTI was able to double its dividend for Q1 compared to Q4, and gave a strong outlook for Q2. The same holds true for CVRR and ALDW.

    Remember that gasoline and other refined products can be freely exported while crude oil needs to stay here. That basically locks in a competitive advantage.
    May 13, 2015. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners - The Distribution Is Not In Danger [View article]
    Griffin Mungus,

    I was looking at the size of the dividend cuts, not quality. I did not intend to speak for you.

    Which E&P MLP would you say has the most upside if oil were to return to $70, $80, $90, $100? I would say MCEP, BBEP, followed by ARP, LINE/LNCO, LGCY. The old LRE would also be up there.

    Interestingly, I do not see VNR going up as much as the others.
    May 13, 2015. 11:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Petroleum Inventories [View news story]
    No news here. Refiners are kicking into gear and producing gasoline for the summer driving season. We'll see crude inventories fall through August, following a long established trends.

    If you want to play this, the refiners like PSX/VLO are the winners due to massive crack spreads nationwide.
    May 13, 2015. 10:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Thoughts On Pengrowth Energy [View article]
    jazznsuds,

    Yup, this was a non-event. PGH and other companies need to pre-file these shelf offerings in the unlikely event they do need to issue equity quickly. There is no imminent dilution.
    May 13, 2015. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At ONEOK Partners [View article]
    User 353732,

    Due to the need for lower cost of capital, the mlp/GP model has become noncompetitive. OKE with OKS would be better able to compete with the big players in the industry (KMI, WMB, SE, EPD). However, I do not think they would be an acquisition target. Instead, they are likely to be a buyer of assets.
    May 13, 2015. 10:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Riding The Volatility [View article]
    richbar,

    I like AGNC, but it is not a bond alternative. Rather, it is a risky, high yield, leveraged play on the MBS spreads. I keep names like these at ~2.5% of my capital, no need to be a hero.
    May 13, 2015. 10:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners - The Distribution Is Not In Danger [View article]
    PVFederico,

    I think it means that MEMP has less upside if oil prices were to recover compared to some of the sketchier E&P MLPs like BBEP/LINE/MCEP.
    May 13, 2015. 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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