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Albert Alfonso  

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  • Linn Energy: Staying On The Sidelines [View article]
    RLP,

    I think its more like loss NGL volumes. The 2015 guidance has some ethane rejection already baked in.
    Jun 18, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Staying On The Sidelines [View article]
    RLP,

    Yup, supply is growing, but the pace of growth has slowed down massively. We should see the first decline in production sometime in early 2016. This will be a hard trend to break given the rig counts are down even more. The US wasted its opportunity for energy independence. We will now rely even more on imports given that demand has not stopped growing.
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Staying On The Sidelines [View article]
    RLP,

    That depends on where you see oil prices long-term. At $60 per bbl, LINE is fairly valued. At $70-80, LINE should fetch $15-20. If you think oil prices are going lower, LINE will not survive in its current state after the hedges fall off.
    Jun 18, 2015. 08:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed still on track for rate hike(s) this year [View news story]
    Is the Fed being willfully ignorant? All signs, even their own data, points towards an economic slowdown. Yet, they continue with the hawkish language. They appear to be hell-bent to raise rates no matter what.
    Jun 17, 2015. 02:20 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Staying On The Sidelines [View article]
    10512821,

    Wow, I'm getting heat from both the bears and the bulls. :)

    I think LINE does have some value, though its capital structure is a mess. They obviously need higher energy prices to survive the debt in 2019/2020.
    Jun 17, 2015. 12:03 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Partners Has Plenty Of Room To Move Higher [View article]
    From Farm Futures,

    "UAN was firm last week on both wholesale and retail markets, with a few retail prices higher and lower as some late season application demand may be in play. The average cost for 28% moved slightly higher to $318, while USDA lowered its average cost in Illinois to $326.67. Wholesale costs were flat, with the Gulf index for 32% steady at $215. Swaps show little change into the end of the year, which suggests the price of 28% should be down to $290. But if other forms of nitrogen stay firm, UAN could be ready to follow suit."

    Compare that to UAN prices of $263 per ton in Q1 2015...
    Jun 17, 2015. 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Staying On The Sidelines [View article]
    Mark_A,

    Other names in the sector have similar yields. I do not think a cut is priced in yet. Nevertheless, unless the earlier guidance was way off, LINE should not need to cut it distribution in 2015.
    Jun 17, 2015. 11:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BAML gets bearish on mortgage REITs [View news story]
    Widening spreads mean higher dividends. I agree, this downgrade makes no sense.
    Jun 17, 2015. 08:54 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Rough Month For American Capital Agency [View article]
    DHL,

    "Great, but that still does not explain the persistent discount to BV most of the major mREITs are seeing since 2013."

    If I could read the markets like that, I would not be writing here. Thing is that the markets are sometime irrational. See Apple in 2013, Tesla in early 2015.

    "(W)hy aren't share being priced accordingly?"

    I think the market is expecting an "imminent" rate hike has been doing so for a long time. You can blame the Fed and its unclear guidance for this uncertainty. Also, turn on CNBC and try not to get nervous. They (and other media outlets) are using fear mongering tactics.

    "In either case, using BV as a performance metric is suspect at a minimum."

    Just to be fair, look at the price action for the mREITs prior to 2013. They are now trading at even larger discounts than in 2008/2009! Looking at NLY's (the oldest mREIT) historical data, it appears the current situation is the exception, not the rule. They have made money during many different interest rate environments.
    Jun 17, 2015. 07:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: You Sell, I'll Buy [View article]
    Uncle Pie,

    Bravo if you have held EPD for 15 years. That one is a total return star, especially after they bought out the GP. They are currently undervalued. I plan to write about them in the short-term.

    Nevertheless, just because KMI has underperformed one peer does not make it a bad investment. KMP posted above market returns for its entire history.

    As for the tax bill, why not own KMR? They created that security specifically for those looking to get around taxes.
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: You Sell, I'll Buy [View article]
    Ted Waller,

    Rich Kinder is near unique in his constant adding to his position. Most insiders with this level of concentration are sellers of stock (see Google, Apple, MSFT, etc).
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:42 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: You Sell, I'll Buy [View article]
    RLP,

    That sounds about right. ~$50 by year end. We would have been there by now if rates were not expected to move higher and oil prices were not so low.
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: You Sell, I'll Buy [View article]
    BuffaloBell,

    You'll need to read some of my prior work on KMI if you want more insight. I think most of my readers are familiar with the basic long thesis. If you the bigger picture view, these two articles should help:

    http://bit.ly/1IiY60t

    http://bit.ly/1IiY60v
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: You Sell, I'll Buy [View article]
    clamosaurus,

    He built KMI up from a single pipeline to the 4th/5th largest energy company (by EV) in North America. He deserves every penny.
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:34 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: You Sell, I'll Buy [View article]
    Clayton,

    It seems futile arguing with the bears. This is literally a repeat of what happened last year with Hedgeye. At least the stock has held up better this time.
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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