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Albert Alfonso  

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  • Stocks to open lower as global selloff continues [View news story]
    Hardog,

    Believe me, I know. However, pretty much every report I read has a September rate hike set in stone (25 bps) and another likely hike in December.

    http://on.mktw.net/1HD...
    Aug 12, 2015. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Residential Investment Corp. Is Now On Sale [View article]
    prepays actually spiked higher in Q2. Many folks rushed to refinance thinking that rates were moving higher and fast.

    As I have noted in the past, the Fed wants to raise rates despite the obvious deflationary environment. I guess they want some dry powder ready for the next recession.
    Aug 12, 2015. 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Residential Investment Corp. Is Now On Sale [View article]
    Chancer,

    ..So, if rate increases are delayed, how bad will NRZ get hurt with prepayments?
    Do other positives offset that?..

    Tough question. Higher prepays would hurt the returns posted by the MSR portfolio.

    In addition, if rates do not rise due to weaker economic performance, that could also be a negative. Regardless, NRZ is not really a pure interest rate play.
    Aug 12, 2015. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams - Another Strong Quarter In The Books [View article]
    kicks123,

    Under ETE, WPZ would see most of its cash flows go to the GP. Benefits include being part of a larger family of companies, allowing for more dropdowns. Downside is that the the merger with WMB would be nixed.

    As for WPZ under WMB, the "new" Williams will be very similar to KMI. Cost of capital would also go down. Dividend growth should be very robust.
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Expands Its Jones Act Tanker Fleet [View article]
    The tankers are for the transport of crude oil and its refined products between ports in the US. These are not used for LNG exports.
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks to open lower as global selloff continues [View news story]
    So rates are back near 2% again. And yet the market consensus is that the first rate hike will occur this September...
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams - Another Strong Quarter In The Books [View article]
    I'll rather have WMB own 100% of its assets than be a part of ETE. Frankly, ETE was and still is overvalued compared to WMB based on numerous metrics.
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Partners: A Special Situation Play With An 8%-Plus Yield [View article]
    I can't say I'm a fan of PAA. The recent quarter was extremely poor. You may see a distribution freeze next year.
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Partners: A Special Situation Play With An 8%-Plus Yield [View article]
    That is why WMB is giving a large premium. In any regards, you'll need to sell eventually...
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Residential Investment Corp. Is Now On Sale [View article]
    1880gh,

    I focus on high-yield stocks and energy -- two sectors which have been crushed this year.

    My big mistake with PGH was not taking profits. I was at one point up 50%, now down 50%. Stock is trading at ~1.5x FFO when the long-term average is ~5x to 6x. NAV (10% discount rate) based purely on the reserves is ~$5 per share.

    As for VNR and other E&P MLPs, they all tell a similar story. Many were not prepared for lower oil prices. However, the 50% drop in prices has an outsized impact. However, they are oversold. If and when energy recovers these names will spike higher.
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Residential Investment Corp. Is Now On Sale [View article]
    Brandond,

    Regarding MEMP,

    The entire E&P MLP sector has seen similar declines. They were not really an outlier. In addition, the Q2 report was poor and plagued by cost overruns.

    Regarding NRZ,

    I've been long this name since its spin-off from NCT. They have far exceeded my exceptions. However, they are traded alongside the mREITs, yet analysts are extremely bullish the stock.
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Partners: A High Yield Fertilizer Play Now On Sale [View article]
    I am holding for now. The Q2 report was more or less inline. Still need to research the impact of this transaction.
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Partners: A High Yield Fertilizer Play Now On Sale [View article]
    That was a game changer. Not exactly thrilled since I believe UAN has a better operational history.
    Aug 12, 2015. 06:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ellington Financial Posts A Strong Quarter Despite Higher Interest Rates [View article]
    mikelp,

    Sorry for missing this earlier.

    EARN is a pure-play mREIT. They posted worse number compared to EFC, but not by much. I like some others in the sectors such as AGNC and CYS a bit more.
    Aug 11, 2015. 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: The Q2 2015 Results Are Better Than Many Think [View article]
    Raw Energy,

    ...But $60/bbl is a disaster for companies who borrowed too much when oil was $90. New CAPEX may be profitable in some cases, although when you load up true costs including G&A, etc. I think profitability requires higher prices than that.

    True. I'm thinking for of cash flow neutrality than sustaining profitability. My guess would be ~$60 for the first and ~$80 per the second.

    ...And yet worldwide there is still evidence of anywhere from 2-4 mm bopd of potential oversupply even before Iran

    I'll have to disagree there. The supply imbalance is really not as bad as that. Accurate real time data is very hard to find on this front.

    ...going to fill China's SPR so is not real demand.

    There is also quite a bit of lost demand out there. India for example has slashed its oil subsidies. The middle east, Egypt, Syria, Libya, etc due to war and economic mismanagement, is also consuming far less than it should. Overall, I am not very worried on the demand side unless we hit a global recession.
    Aug 10, 2015. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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