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Albert Alfonso

 
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  • Northern Tier Energy: Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    Blacklick Capital,

    Please stay off the short-seller kool-aid! NTI has hedges in place which protect it from those sort of moves. Crack spreads were positive throughout the oil rout. They were making money for all of Q4.

    Please read the recent Barron's piece which called refiners out-performers. Their profitability has literally zero correlation to oil prices.

    http://on.barrons.com/...
    Jan 21, 2015. 10:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: Gillette Sues ShaveLogic [View article]
    I have a similar experience. I used to spend ~$10 a month (~$120 per year) on razors before I found out about the cheaper options. I now buy mines in bulk for $35, saving 70%. Never tried the safety razors though.

    Gillette thrives since most consumers are lazy and like brands. Though I disagree about the quality comment. They actually make good razors, just way too expensive.
    Jan 21, 2015. 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Refining: Looking Into The Puzzling 30% Decline [View article]
    Pliny,

    That is an interesting point. So are you now seeing more demand for your production now that prices are down ~55%? From looking at some broader data, it seems like crude oil spreads are tightening across the US. Sorta disproves the "oil glut" thesis.
    Jan 21, 2015. 12:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Distribution Increase For ONEOK Partners, Now Yields ~8% [View article]
    Akaralph,


    Keep in mind that OKS does not produce any commodities, but is exposed somewhat when gathering and processing the NGL streams. Its income is almost entirely fee-based.
    Jan 20, 2015. 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ONEOK Increases Dividend 3%, Now Yields Nearly 6% [View article]
    HighOnDividends,

    OKE pays its dividends out of "cash flow available for dividends", not GAAP EPS. My numbers are available on OKE's IR page under 2015 financial guidance.
    Jan 20, 2015. 04:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Bullish Thesis Is Reaffirmed [View article]
    Pipeline capacity "supply" is still below demand in many areas. US production of oil and natural gas is still projected to grow every quarter in 2015 and 2016 despite capex cuts.
    Jan 20, 2015. 04:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy: The Dividend Remains Intact For Now [View article]
    MB,

    If PGH were to sell its hedge book I would turn bearish in an instant. That would add quite a bit more risk to the stock. Look what happened to continental resources (CLR).

    I am hoping no dividend cut will happen. However, I think the press releasing was telegraphing a change in policy. With $0.90 per share of FFO, PGH could in theory buyback 33% of its float...
    Jan 20, 2015. 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Refining: Looking Into The Puzzling 30% Decline [View article]
    QCBearsFan,

    Actually, EPS is not a good metric for determining DCF. That is no correlation between the two.

    You may need to study the following link to see how complicated it is to reach even a ballpark number. http://bit.ly/1xxY5Qi
    Jan 16, 2015. 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ellington Financial: A 15% Yield Trading At A Double-Digit Discount To Book Value [View article]
    Its an LLC, not a REIT. Different rules apply.

    As for the dividends/distributions, I have held EFC for 2 years now in a taxable account and the K-1 is very easy to fill out. As always with taxes, you may need to consult a CPA if you have questions regarding specific tax issues.
    Jan 16, 2015. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Refining: Looking Into The Puzzling 30% Decline [View article]
    QCBearsFan,

    Who is estimating only $0.25 per unit in distributions? That seems way too low.
    Jan 16, 2015. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: What Is The Impact Of The Shrinking Brent/WTI Spread? [View article]
    ClubFord,

    There have been some exports from Alaska and Texas, up from essentially zero in the past, and companies are now allowed to export condensate (very lightly processed crude) even without a permit.

    http://on.ft.com/1y5qv9k

    http://bit.ly/1y5qx0I

    http://on.wsj.com/1y5qvpy
    Jan 16, 2015. 09:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: What Is The Impact Of The Shrinking Brent/WTI Spread? [View article]
    Go 4 it,

    Tell the people of Lac-MĂ©gantic that transporting crude by rail is "safe". The old railroad-cars they are using to transport were not built to handle some of the "heavy" crudes coming out of the Bakken and Oil sands. Furthermore, the railroads often run through populated areas, unlike most pipelines.

    Unless a serious effort to upgrade the railroad-cars in use occurs, pipelines are much more reliable and safer.
    Jan 16, 2015. 09:44 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FXCM could be out of business, says Credit Suisse [View news story]
    FXCM is now down 90%...
    Jan 16, 2015. 08:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Partners: A Sickening Decline [View article]
    Fliper,

    Credit lines taken into account hedges as well. BBEP has a huge unrealized gain there. It will be lower, but not 50%, more like 10 to 15%.
    Jan 15, 2015. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy: Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    Keep in mind that there are several different crack spreads depending on the refinery, its location, its age, its crude oil feedstock, etc. http://bit.ly/19nYr3B
    Jan 15, 2015. 09:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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