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Albert Alfonso  

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  • Atlas Resource Partners: How Safe Is The 25% Yield? [View article]

    Nope, the $55M to $80M range is how much less revenues I think ARP will get in 2015 for its production. As for M "mille" meaning $1000, that is true for accounting statements and formal documents. However, it now typically refers to a million. K is for $1000, M for $1,000,000, B for $1,000,000,000, T for $1,000,000,000,000.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Rock Energy Partners: A Hybrid Upstream And Midstream MLP With An Unsustainable Yield [View article]

    Boy has this story played out almost exactly as I called it. EROC is now a $2 stock. Back then it was trading for $8 to $10.

    In late 2013 EROC lowered its distribution from $0.22 to $0.15 per quarter. In another article, I noted that this new distribution was unsustainable. By 2014, the company suspended the distribution outright.

    In late 2013, EROC made a major asset sale to lower debt, as I anticipated in the article. However, instead of selling its upstream assets, the midstream business was "Contributed" to Regency Energy Partners (RGP) for $1.3B in a mix of equity, assumed debt, and some cash.

    In Q4 2014, EROC was able to restart the distribution at $0.07. However, this new distribution is now on shaky ground due to the collapse in oil prices. We could see another cut.

    I would avoid EROC even at current prices. Simply put, too much risk and not enough of a reward.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mid-Con Energy Partners: A Painful, But Necessary, Distribution Cut [View article]

    SA authors all write independently. I just happen to cover this stock since it just lowered its distribution. That makes 3 E&P MLPs by my count (LINE, BBEP, ARP). I would imagine Casey was triggered by the same event.

    As for hedges, who knows what they were thinking. At least now they have some breathing room. IMO, they'll be a survivor.
    Jan 29, 2015. 11:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners Keeps Distribution Intact, Still The Best Hedged E&P MLP [View article]
    If by bashing do you mean telling the truth?

    BBEP and LINE have both lowered their distributions recently and have under-performed peers. They also happen to be the two largest E&P MLPs by Enterprise Value.

    Also, I am long BBEP from my old QRE units.
    Jan 29, 2015. 11:40 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Resource Partners: How Safe Is The 25% Yield? [View article]
    Try this link:
    Jan 29, 2015. 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil will return to $90/barrel - in 5 years: UBS [View news story]

    How's this. WTI at $60 per BBL by the end of Q3 2015 (September 30).

    We (the market, traders, investors, etc) have overreacted to the downside. While $100 oil is not feasible, neither is $40 per bbl.

    OPEC will shatter and become irrelevant if they do not lower production. SA is losing $1B per DAY in revenues! Venezuela is on the brink of the abyss. Things need to change. The world risks becoming unstable if oil rich nations go broke.
    Jan 29, 2015. 03:08 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Changes Are Coming In 2015 [View article]

    What is their moat? Is that a trick question? ATT has a MASSIVE legacy asset base. They are one of the backbones of our modern way of life. The quality of their service is also good, only Verizon has better service.

    As for the Google threat, they are aiming at the low-end of the market. People who need reliable cell service do not care much about spending $100 versus $40 versus $20 per month.
    Jan 29, 2015. 02:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Changes Are Coming In 2015 [View article]

    I've been thinking of doing that. Buy 25%-50% of my position now, wait for a drop later. I just have so many other areas to reinvest dividends. Recently nabbed some energy preferred stock at a 24% discount to par and 11% yield.
    Jan 29, 2015. 02:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Patriots Couldn't Even Deflate This Quarterly Result [View article]

    I hate your title (so bored of that controversy), but love your article.

    Is it not weird that China demand exceeded expectations? After all, iPhones over there are seen as status symbols. Android phones has a negative stigma in many markets due to so many low-quality copycats.
    Jan 29, 2015. 02:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Changes Are Coming In 2015 [View article]
    O and T are not really comparable. O has slightly more risk, but has a good long-term track record. T has been out of favor since late 2013 and is seeing some margin pressure. As a result, it has become cheap.

    Both are IMO buy and hold investments. Just buy them when they are out of favor and reinvest the income. They should return over 10% per year using that strategy. Good for the IRA.
    Jan 29, 2015. 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Changes Are Coming In 2015 [View article]

    I agree, a 6% yield will not happen "naturally." I am hoping to buy either T or VZ or both in the near term. Waiting for a large red day to start a position.
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T: Changes Are Coming In 2015 [View article]

    We could get there if the market sees a big down day. Its more wishful thinking than a price target call.
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Is Talking With Lenders As It Faces A Liquidity Crisis [View article]

    And I hope you make a bundle off your investment. PWE could double/triple if oil prices were to recover. However, just be aware of the risks. This is not a good period for E&Ps.
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Is Talking With Lenders As It Faces A Liquidity Crisis [View article]

    "financial condition that was untrue."

    If this were true, PWE would not be talking to its lenders. The financial health of the company went from bad, to worse, to untenable in mere weeks. The revised 2015 capex budget assumes a considerable amount of borrowing to fund production growth. Is that really how you want to deploy capital?

    Try to spin this all you like. However, PWE needs to figure something out fast if oil stays below $50. They need to convert assets into cash and stop spending like sailors at port.
    Jan 28, 2015. 09:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: Making Sense Of The 20%+ Rally [View article]
    BBEP is looking for a term loan, not senior debt.
    Jan 27, 2015. 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment