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Albert Alfonso  

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  • Pengrowth Energy: The 10% Rally Is Just The Start [View article]
    Hammer,

    Stop spread misinformation. Most of that increase in the share count came via the NAL merger and the rest from the DRIP. PGH has not issued equity to fund capex.

    As for Lindbergh, capex is deferred waiting higher oil prices. PGH does not have any "big capex needs".

    As for nonsense, you post takes the cake in that regard. Belittling an inconvenient fact (dividend is 29% of FFO) is just plain childish.
    Jun 10, 2015. 07:32 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    RIGHolder,

    You'll need to ask your custodian/trustee. I know there is a tax treaty in place "Canada-US Income Tax Convention" so they may need to file some paperwork if they are withholding the tax.
    Jun 5, 2015. 04:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: A New Challenge Emerges [View article]
    We've been hearing the "rates are going higher" talk since 2012. Fact is rates are still low and nobody knows when they'll go higher.

    From Reuters back in November 2014:

    "Wall Street's biggest banks remain convinced the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by June 2015, a Reuters poll found, and economists also said the market was underestimating how aggressively the U.S. central bank will tighten policy.

    Fourteen of 19 primary dealers, or the banks that deal directly with the Fed, said they expect the first rate hike by June 2015, with borrowing costs rising to 1 percent at the end of that year."

    From Reuters back in January 2015:

    "Many economists at Wall Street's biggest banks remain convinced the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by June, even as the markets have been spooked by a five-year low in crude oil prices and wage growth remains weak.

    Thirteen of 20 primary dealers, the banks that deal directly with the Fed, said in a Reuters poll on Friday they expect the first rate hike by June. All but three expect at least two rate hikes in 2015."

    and now Reuters from May 20th 2015

    Federal Reserve officials believed it would be premature to hike interest rates in June even though most felt the U.S. economy was set to rebound from a dismal start to the year, according to minutes from their April policy meeting released on Wednesday.

    ...

    So the street was 100% wrong. Even with the recent spike higher, rates are still lower than they were in 2014.
    Jun 3, 2015. 11:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vector Group: A Hidden Gem In The Tobacco Sector [View article]
    Y-charts and buyupside.com

    Links back to them are not working.
    Jun 3, 2015. 11:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vector Group: A Hidden Gem In The Tobacco Sector [View article]
    As for LTS,

    It still should be added to VGR's total return. That is like measuring MO over ten years without PM or KRFT/MDLZ.
    Jun 3, 2015. 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vector Group: A Hidden Gem In The Tobacco Sector [View article]
    Ian,

    Stocks with large dividends should include those for measuring total returns.

    Since 2005:

    VGR has returned 381%, LO has returned 900%. For comparison, SPY has returned 115%. This does not assume dividend reinvestment.
    Jun 3, 2015. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vector Group: A Hidden Gem In The Tobacco Sector [View article]
    Ian,

    There was a huge bubble in 2001/2002. The stock went up more than 10x from 1998 to 2001. Also, did you factor in the LTS spin-off in 2005?
    Jun 3, 2015. 08:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: A New Challenge Emerges [View article]
    If rates move higher around the world, PM's earnings will explode higher. I think you are talking about the bonds. At 40% lower, PM yields 7% and trades at a ~7-8x EV/EBITDA... in what world would that happen?
    Jun 3, 2015. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vector Group: A Hidden Gem In The Tobacco Sector [View article]
    EBITDA margins for the RE side are pretty bad due to high levels of spending. That segment has been barely profitable, but could become a cash cow if it were turned into a pure-play REIT.
    Jun 3, 2015. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: A New Challenge Emerges [View article]
    JCCIII,

    1995 was 20 years ago. That was when many of the big lawsuits here in the US were started. The MSA was signed in 1998.
    Jun 3, 2015. 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    Hammer,

    I would not be against suspending the dividend. However, given that it requires ~33% of FFO, it is not a big deal.

    As for the production flat number, PGH is not investing much in natural gas, so on a BOE basis, production will go down. However, oil is going to up due to Lindbergh.
    Jun 3, 2015. 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    Lindbergh's production is sold at a ~25%-35% or so discount to WTI. It does not need much sustaining capex, so that is why the cash flow positive number is so low. Do note that this does not include hedges.
    Jun 3, 2015. 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Plains All American For Now [View article]
    Regarding the shut-off valves,

    This is the source: http://bloom.bg/1QqreqT

    As for reputation damage, just take a look at the search history for PAA and "California oil spill". Notice the huge spike in interest. Lots of people are hearing about PAA for the first time via this spill.

    http://bit.ly/1QqrgiD;tz=
    Jun 3, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    fpeebles,

    Oil has moved up and PGH has not followed it higher. That is my concern.
    Jun 3, 2015. 02:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inside My Portfolio: The Holdings I Bet My Retirement On [View article]
    CWMF,

    Doesn't Bimini Capital Management have ties to ARR and JMI? Both of those have been disastrous mREITs.
    Jun 3, 2015. 01:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,418 Comments
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