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Albert Alfonso

 
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  • Linn Energy: Is The Market Pricing In Another Distribution Cut? [View article]
    Natural gas prices indirectly impact NGLs, which Linn has basically zero hedges for. The reasons for this are complicated, but there is a link.
    Jan 15, 2015. 09:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Is The Market Pricing In Another Distribution Cut? [View article]
    Chris,

    The world is a mess, not just oil. Look at what just happened in the Euro and Swiss franc market today. Utter madness. Negative interest rates?! A ~30% move for a currency?! Oil is merely reflecting this volatility.
    Jan 15, 2015. 08:52 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Is The Market Pricing In Another Distribution Cut? [View article]
    RLP,

    I doubled down on MEMP common and added some VNR preferred units. LINE and BBEP are just a tad more risky, so I will not bite. I'm already way too long energy as it is.
    Jan 15, 2015. 08:50 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Is The Market Pricing In Another Distribution Cut? [View article]
    Mark,

    I did not leave them out. Linn's 2015 guidance has the hedges baked in as does my estimates. I thought that it was apparent. I'll be editing the article to make this clearer.
    Jan 15, 2015. 08:47 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on BlackBerry/Samsung (updated) [View news story]
    This reminds me of the time when HPQ bought out Palm...
    Jan 14, 2015. 04:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Partners Is Looking For A Loan [View article]
    D.P. Sullivan,

    Misery loves company...
    Jan 14, 2015. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Partners Is Looking For A Loan [View article]
    "an equity offering is out of the question",

    That phrase is obviously my opinion. BBEP would be shooting itself in the foot if it offers equity at current prices. Market would eviscerate them.
    Jan 14, 2015. 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy: Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    disciplinedinvestor,

    A refiner MLP pays no taxes and can spit out a ton of cash flow. They can yield from 0% to 30% annualized quarter to quarter, though average around 10% from my experience.

    A few PE firms bought out some struggling refiners and IPOed them around 2012. CVRR, NTI, and ALDW are the results.
    Jan 14, 2015. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Partners: A Sickening Decline [View article]
    Here is a link to PBA's most recent presentation dated DEC 2014. They are 71% fee based according to the graph on page 10.

    http://bit.ly/17I48wP
    Jan 14, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Partners: A Sickening Decline [View article]
    Have you looked at non-MLP midstreams? There are some names like TRP, ENB which are based in Canada and well off their highs. PBA is also cheap. These have the benefit of being dividend paying c-corps.
    Jan 14, 2015. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Surprising Strength In The Face Of Sub-$50 Oil [View article]
    RLP,

    Hindsight is 20/20. Also oil down 10% does not help.
    Jan 14, 2015. 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Partners: A Sickening Decline [View article]
    Akaralph,

    I am kidding about the depressed part. I enjoy lively stock related discussions since the other side of a trade usually has valuable insight. If they do not, then it confirms my thesis.

    I keep my exposure to "high-yield" stocks at a max of 2.5% of my capital per position, with one exception being PGH. However, I am overweight energy and am feeling the burn.
    I so want to add to OKE, but it is at my max. Same goes for BTE, MEMP, PSEC, and other high yield names.

    However, what irks me is that now everybody is claiming to have called the oil rout. Fundamentals have not changed so much much to cause a 55% decline. This is 90% sentiment based. I myself blame OPEC and its cronies for adding fuel to the fire.

    Regarding BBEP,

    They are a weak E&P. Risk is high. But so is the reward. A 4x DCF multiple is insanely cheap. Time will tell what happens. Whatever the case, the stock will not stay at a $5 handle for long. Its either a zero or a double.
    Jan 14, 2015. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy: Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    yup, I missed the "not". I'll get that fixed.
    Jan 14, 2015. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Partners: A Sickening Decline [View article]
    Akaralph,

    Your posts are getting me depressed, so much doom and gloom, lol.

    You are going to see numerous well shut-ins at $30 per BBL. At $20, producing oil would become cash flow negative for all but the oldest production.

    Oil will recover, period.
    Jan 14, 2015. 09:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury yields tumble after soft retail sales number [View news story]
    Black Friday sales were one of the weakest in years. Now, December comes in weak. Tell me again where the economic growth is?
    Jan 14, 2015. 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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