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Albert Alfonso  

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  • Is The 'Oil Glut' A Myth? [View article]
    What a great article. Really digs into the facts.

    I agree. The oil glut is a myth. What we are seeing is projected supply growth exceeding projected demand growth in 2015. In other words, a "future" oil glut.

    As for the price action, you better believe that some massive manipulation is going on. Oil prices held steady for ages and then all of a sudden they fall ~50%?! Heck, coal saw a more orderly decline and it has been in secular decline since the 1980s.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:47 AM | 44 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Is The Trans Mountain Pipeline Becoming The New Keystone? [View article]
    monkey see,

    I provided a link in the article to every incident on the Trans Mountain pipeline since 1961.
    May 5, 2014. 03:42 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips Valuation For Different Oil Prices [View article]
    This article appears to be incomplete and written by a computer.

    I really dislike DCF analysis for oil stocks. If the price of oil went up 50% to $75, how would that impact this valuation? What if the price of oil were to go to $150? $200?

    Where is the the discussion about the supply dynamics? Lower demand from Europe, China, etc?

    What rationale do you have for looking at $20 oil? At that prices ALL oil produced in the US could become subject to a shut-in. Operating expenses per BBL average around $25 per BBL. No producer is going sell at a loss.

    What about natural gas? The article made zero mention of this production. COP is a major producer of this product.
    Jan 8, 2015. 06:13 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Senate Democrats consider Keystone pipeline vote next week [View news story]
    It is a shame that the keystone pipeline has become such a political football. Canadian producers are now having to use rails to get the product to market. How is this more environmentally friendly?
    Apr 28, 2014. 07:27 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Owes Its Shareholders An Explanation [View article]
    Shareholders are owed an explanation? Of what? Intel basically admitted that it was not ready for the mobile prime-time in its 2014 guidance.

    Unlike with PCs where the company is dominate AND best in class, Intel is rightly viewed as a suspect provider of parts for tablets and smartphones.

    Do you really think buyers want to beta test unproven "Intel inside" mobile devices?
    Feb 26, 2014. 05:02 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Prospect Capital Is Set To Rebound In 2015 [View article]

    I am sorry if you feel that way. I wrote about PSEC towards year-end since I think it is undervalued. It has given back the gains posted from the insider buys. No new news, just weird price action. As I noted in the piece, this may be related to tax-loss harvesting.

    Just as an aside, SA is crowd sourced. Contributors can choose to write about any stock. We are not assigned anything.

    I often cover very small companies, usually offering high yields. I find these names interesting, hence why I talk write about PSEC frequently. Same goes for RSO, CYS, AGNC, and many E&P names (LINE, VNR, BBEP, MEMP).

    You will not see me discussing a high flying tech or biotech related stock with a dubious valuation. I like cold hard cash and buying things on the cheap. PSEC fits that mold.
    Dec 31, 2014. 02:27 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bears Attack Kinder Morgan [View article]
    Want to know what has me livid? Hedgeye moved the stock without even putting out a report. They seem to want to make their case about valuation. However, Kinder Morgan is hardly overvalued when using the widely accepted method to value MLPs: adjusted EBITDA.
    Sep 5, 2013. 09:40 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Kinder Morgan's Response To Barron's [View article]

    What is eerie about Barron's coverage of KMP is that this is the same sort of stuff that got LINE into trouble in early 2013.

    Was LINE overvalued then? Most likely yes. Based on DCF, it was trading at a 20% premium to all of its peers.

    Was the dividend/distribution cut? Nope. It may actually have some upside this year. That did not stop Hedgeye from calling it a house of cards though.

    Was the berry merger delayed? Most certainty it was. LINE actually had to issue more equity than was expected dueto its depressed unit price which almost nixed the deal. A self-fulfilling prophecy?

    The end result for LINE is that its access to the equity markets was limited for months due to a lowered unit price due to the Barron's/Hedgeye hit pieces.
    Feb 25, 2014. 01:07 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: An Abysmal Quarter To End 2014 [View article]

    I have a few stocks in my portfolio which were at one point 50% losers (a few mREITs come to mind). By holding and adding during the bottom, I am now green on all of them.

    LINE will likely not reach $30. However, I think $20 could happen by 2016. Plus dividends, break-even is not that far off. This is not a BK story.
    Feb 20, 2015. 10:20 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Is The Market Pricing In Another Distribution Cut? [View article]

    The world is a mess, not just oil. Look at what just happened in the Euro and Swiss franc market today. Utter madness. Negative interest rates?! A ~30% move for a currency?! Oil is merely reflecting this volatility.
    Jan 15, 2015. 08:52 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: The Chickens Have Come Home To Roost [View article]

    Do you have some facts backing up your claim regarding PGH?

    As for the journalism dig, you seem to be missing the point. I write about stocks that I find interesting.

    If I were in in for the money you would see me write about Apple, tesla, netflix, etc. How many people do you really think read about Canadian income stocks?
    Jul 30, 2014. 07:51 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Is The Trans Mountain Pipeline Becoming The New Keystone? [View article]
    Why should the article be rejected?

    The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is relatively unknown and is just now starting to draw attention. The MSNBC report was watched by several thousand people -- more than enough to cause problems.

    If the report was unbiased, then maybe you have a case. However, Rachel refereed to the pipeline as "spongecake", "leaky", "unsafe" and call the product as "tar sands". That is just plain hyperbole and needs to be called out.
    May 5, 2014. 03:58 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Last Chance To Dominate The High End [View article]

    Obviously I did, hence my reply.

    If you want a more specific critique I would argue you are not making a good case with the market share data.

    Apple is a US focused company while Samsung is more international. Of course Samsung is going to do well overseas, that is their territory. You should be incorporate US market share data to get a better picture.

    Also, you are missing a key detail: Apple's volumes grew y/y. This was the case even with the "smaller" 5s. Size of phones is only one factor for consumers.
    Jan 6, 2014. 01:10 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Is The Market Pricing In Another Distribution Cut? [View article]

    I doubled down on MEMP common and added some VNR preferred units. LINE and BBEP are just a tad more risky, so I will not bite. I'm already way too long energy as it is.
    Jan 15, 2015. 08:50 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Partners: A Sickening Decline [View article]
    Or maybe its old-school capitalism. Run your competition out of business by destroying margins. Buy up the pieces when enough carnage has been inflicted.

    Nevertheless, I do not think the Saudi's are after the US shale boom. They just want to rein in some of the "cheaters" in OPEC and maybe punish Iran/Iraq/Russia. The US is just collateral damage.
    Jan 13, 2015. 12:50 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment