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Albert Alfonso

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  • Intel Owes Its Shareholders An Explanation [View article]
    Shareholders are owed an explanation? Of what? Intel basically admitted that it was not ready for the mobile prime-time in its 2014 guidance.

    Unlike with PCs where the company is dominate AND best in class, Intel is rightly viewed as a suspect provider of parts for tablets and smartphones.

    Do you really think buyers want to beta test unproven "Intel inside" mobile devices?
    Feb 26 05:02 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bears Attack Kinder Morgan [View article]
    Want to know what has me livid? Hedgeye moved the stock without even putting out a report. They seem to want to make their case about valuation. However, Kinder Morgan is hardly overvalued when using the widely accepted method to value MLPs: adjusted EBITDA.
    Sep 5 09:40 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Kinder Morgan's Response To Barron's [View article]
    JPZ11,

    What is eerie about Barron's coverage of KMP is that this is the same sort of stuff that got LINE into trouble in early 2013.

    Was LINE overvalued then? Most likely yes. Based on DCF, it was trading at a 20% premium to all of its peers.

    Was the dividend/distribution cut? Nope. It may actually have some upside this year. That did not stop Hedgeye from calling it a house of cards though.


    Was the berry merger delayed? Most certainty it was. LINE actually had to issue more equity than was expected dueto its depressed unit price which almost nixed the deal. A self-fulfilling prophecy?

    The end result for LINE is that its access to the equity markets was limited for months due to a lowered unit price due to the Barron's/Hedgeye hit pieces.
    Feb 25 01:07 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Last Chance To Dominate The High End [View article]
    Ashraf,

    Obviously I did, hence my reply.

    If you want a more specific critique I would argue you are not making a good case with the market share data.

    Apple is a US focused company while Samsung is more international. Of course Samsung is going to do well overseas, that is their territory. You should be incorporate US market share data to get a better picture.

    Also, you are missing a key detail: Apple's volumes grew y/y. This was the case even with the "smaller" 5s. Size of phones is only one factor for consumers.
    Jan 6 01:10 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Just Can't Catch A Break [View article]
    I would argue Hedgeye/Barron's had much more of an impact on LINE than the SEC.
    Mar 24 01:14 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: Buy The Dip? [View article]
    AP,

    The demise of the brick and mortar store has been grossly hyped up. Certain segments of retail are actually very much in a growth phase, including the drug stores and dollar stores.

    As for some of the retailers that are on the way out (JC Penny, Radio Shack, Toys R Us), the company basically has zero exposure.
    Mar 27 10:51 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Just Can't Catch A Break [View article]
    elliot,

    I've also been asked to do interviews regarding MLPs multiple times.

    I really think the media wants to find the next MLP "blow up". Funny enough, most MLPs are unlikely to cut the dividends unless under severe duress.
    Mar 24 01:33 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Last Chance To Dominate The High End [View article]
    Apple is hardly dead money. Instead it has faced PE contraction as its growth prospects decline. It is simply too big to grow fast and is priced with an appropriate PE ratio. Also, Apple is number one where it counts, namely the US.

    Want an example of dead money? Take a look at Intel's 10 year chart.
    Jan 6 12:38 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlantic Power: A 10% Dividend Yield And Potential Sale Could Yield An Additional 70% Capital Gain [View article]
    This article seems to be glossing over or ignoring several factors about AT.

    1. It is still not clear what changed between November 2012 and February 2013 that resulted in the company to eliminate the majority of its explicitly promised and investor coveted dividend.

    Really, it is not clear what happened? The company sold off its FLA assets which generated about 33% of EBITDA but over 60% of cash flow. The new assets, while generating EBITDA, generate virtual no cash flow.

    2. The new dividend is safer, as it is a lower percentage of EBITDA and operating cash flow.

    If by safer you mean 100% of cash flow, then yes. AT's dividend is unsustainable, especially considering its debt due in 2014, which it plans to fund partly with equity.

    3. We do not believe that management will put the company up for sale without shareholder pressure.

    Put the company for sale? I doubt it. They seem to want to hold onto their jobs more than create shareholder wealth.

    4. Finally, as management and directors own few shares, an activist investor will be able to initiate a sales process easier than if management held a significant stake.

    Umm, AT's shareholder rights plan, AKA poison pill, will snuff out any activist shareholder http://prn.to/12keywQ
    Jul 9 07:25 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short-Term Noise In Linn Energy May Be A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Hi,

    I have noticed that Cramer will often change his opinions about a sector if it starts trading down. He used to be a bull in NLY, now he is against that sector. Cramer follows momentum much more than he does fundamentals.
    Jun 1 06:58 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Champions For April 2013 [View article]
    David,

    Thank you for your hard working on maintaining this wonderful list. It is an invaluable reference for my research!
    Mar 31 08:14 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Let Dividend Yield Drive Your Investment Decision [View article]
    Great article Alan.

    The dividend cut for CLF was widely expected. I think what really spooked investors was the share issuance. CLF was obviously in need of cash. Both those decisions destroyed shareholder wealth and goodwill.

    The dividend cut which shocked me the most was CTL. They had been showing signs of turning the corner, increasing revenues, and diversifying away from landlands. They have spent large sums on capex, building out internet subscribers, data centers, and fiber to tower. 2013 guidance for free cash flow covered the dividend. They blamed an eventually cash flow decline due to "taxes" in 2015, which I find to be a rather lacking excuse. How could they afford a 2yr, $2B buyback (which is 1B per year) and not the full dividend? I think CTL forgot who owns there stock and why they own it. CTL is/was an income stock. That they sacrifice their dividend stock "cred" is astonishing.
    Feb 17 12:33 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Why Barron's Is Wrong Regarding The CO2 Segment [View article]
    KM is not skimping on anything. They have above average safety ratings as well as below average incidents per mile on the pipelines.
    Mar 3 09:10 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Linn Energy Finally Bottomed? [View article]
    Hi,

    LINE is an upstream MLP. They pay out nearly all of their cash flow via distributions. They cannot really retain any earnings to fund expansions. Instead, they issue equity alongside with debt to fund purchases.
    Jun 18 05:19 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Energy: A 53% Discount To Book Value Plus A 12% Yield [View article]
    beabaggage,

    I agree that the market is pricing in a dividend cut. However, the current dividend is only 40% of funds from operations. PGH can actually cover its maintenance capex and dividend with its current cash flow. The market often looks at momentum and action while ignore fundamentals.
    Feb 27 11:48 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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