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AlchemyOfFinance

 
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  • Top Silver Plays: Endeavour Silver, Hecla Mining and Mag Silver [View article]
    it sounds like you might like the bloomberg list then: www.bloomberg.com/mark.../ It's got quite a few others you haven't mentioned.

    However it doesn't mention Tahoe yet, or Minefinders or Gammon Gold. GRS actually I like a lot as a silver play.
    Dec 9, 2010. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Silver Plays: Endeavour Silver, Hecla Mining and Mag Silver [View article]
    great tip on LODE, definitely something for all silver longs to follow closely.

    i'm under no illusions about silver's performance so far; in fact I love presenting this chart: finviz.com/futures_per... However I was just repeating the case that the video was making - in fact I've distanced myself from actually saying that I'm long silver for pretty much the entire article. This is because I am no longer long silver (*cringes for wave of retaliation from you guys*) as you'd have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the gold-silver ratio was this low (see www.goldprice.org/gold...). Statistically speaking, silver is due for a period of underperformance vs gold, fundamentals be damned. The reason I did not choose to publish this view is because I don't want to fight a JPM short cover. Instead, I published this statistically motivated piece which I had more confidence in looking at the data. the SA editors turned my suggested title into "Top Silver Plays", which wasn't really my intention. Clearly FRMSF is more "Top" than any stock mentioned here.

    you and I both know that Wharton degree is worth absolutely zero, possibly negative, compared to real trading experience. that bio is just the obligatory "me in a few words". don't read too much into it, and cut us nerds some slack ;)
    Dec 9, 2010. 01:12 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Silver Plays: Endeavour Silver, Hecla Mining and Mag Silver [View article]
    I couldn't agree more. I believe SSRI and MGN are the lossmakers you refer to. Unsurprisingly, they have massively underperformed the profitable miners like SLW.
    Dec 9, 2010. 12:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Silver Plays: Endeavour Silver, Hecla Mining and Mag Silver [View article]
    silverflyer,
    don't apologize when you know you are right. comments like yours are the very reason I write to seekingalpha. thanks.

    the plain and simple answer why FRMSF was not included is because I wasn't even aware it existed, being an OTC stock. I had screened using finviz (link in the article), which I now know does not include OTC stocks. I went further and both the usual standbys Yahoo and Google Finance did not throw up FRMSF in their Silver lists for probably the same reason. It seems only Bloomberg would have given a comprehensive survey of all Silver mining companies: www.bloomberg.com/mark.../

    Lesson learnt.
    Dec 9, 2010. 12:46 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Warner Chilcott is Overvalued [View article]
    sounds like the work of ibankers, but since we have no inside info, all this is just speculation. what we do know for a fact though is that the syndicate of 6 banks that lent the money (led by JPM if memory serves me) were willing to lend enough to 1) buy P&G for $3b and 2) buy out book equity for $2b and 3) refinance WCRX debt of $1b as part of the P&G deal, fully accounting for the entire $6b capital structure of WCRX on assets that frankly don't seem to be worth that much. There are three scenarios: 1) they're fools, in which case you short them because they're propbably doing the same with other companies, 2) they know something we don't about the ongoing research at WCRX, in which case we're the fools, or 3) they're hoping to bilk future shareholders by issuing shares in future to pay down the debt if the share price gets inflated, in whcih case they're fools hoping to find greater fools.

    item 2) can be especially damaging to a short, and in fact I'd be game for going long if WCRX threw up some compelling story for a new drug or acquisition.
    Dec 8, 2010. 02:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Politics of Pay on Wall Street [View article]
    re: buy side vs sell side

    it's really simple, Felix. Sell side thrives on relationships, networks, power. Buy side on track record, results, objectivity. It is easy to see where the more political people are drawn to, is it not?

    although if one takes the blogosphere's assertions that GS is a giant hedge fund at face value, you are quite mistaken in equating GS with sell side.
    Sep 15, 2010. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should ETFs Be Allowed to Include Illiquid Stocks? [View article]
    Hi Felix,

    if you are not saying that Bradley is right here, then I surmise that you could argue for ETFs to include illiquid stocks. Could you flesh this argument out? is it nothing more than the SEC not wanting to appear unnecessarily paternal?
    Aug 24, 2010. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lies, Damned Lies, And Equity Mutual Fund Statistics [View article]
    thanks for this great journalism-about-bad-j... piece. i wish that we didn't need something like this and all news sources were equally reliable. journalism that requires another journalist to tell readers what was wrong about the first journalist is just a waste of everybody's time especially when the bone of contention is something so objectively provable.
    Aug 24, 2010. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sitting on Cash? That's Likely to Reduce Overall Investment Returns [View article]
    this article's title is just too damn laugh out loud funny
    Jul 5, 2010. 02:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Fund Fees for Expert Knowledge Are More Than Justified [View article]
    this is a terrible, terrible read. i don't even know if you know what you are talking about, and i am much less inclined to even try given how incoherent some sentences are. I'm sorry, I am just criticising the article, I am sure you are competent in your actual fund management.
    Apr 12, 2010. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $10 Trillion in Wall Street Aid and No Investigations? [View article]
    can you elaborate on what exactly is the breakdown of the 10 trillion number? i'm bemused. the fed + treasury balance sheet combined is nowhere near that. are you using FDIC figures? thats just plain wrong.
    Jul 13, 2009. 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Debt Destroys Solvency [View article]
    Re: "What does the chart say? It predicts we have unpayable debt equal to $21 trillion. Where all the lines go up in the chart, assume they all have to come back down again. If we write off $21 trillion, the job gets done."

    1. Why do you assume all this debt is unpayable? Be responsible when you use loaded words like that.
    2. just so you know what base of knowledge i'm coming from, I have done some work on government debt-to-income figures but not private sector. The concerns are slightly different but suffice to say that your usage of GDP as a scalar for private debt isn't a good metric and I hope you were aware of that but just went ahead with it because it is in fact easy to understand, which is always a plus.
    3. my biggest quibble with this treatment of debt (and its so widespread I do not blame you in the least bit) is that indebtedness should never be considered in isolation. If the nonfinancial businesses and financial sectors in your chart had issued equity instead of debt, would they have shown up in your chart? no. Should you be worried about it anyway? Yes. what does that tell you about how reliable Debt-To-Income ratios are in assessing creditworthiness at the macro level? Its useless in isolation. I think people tend to overextend their personal finance analogies when they try to explain macroeconomics. This was the failure of the classical school and we should all remember that.
    May 25, 2009. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SkyGrid Launches Free Real Time Financial News Aggregator; Challenge to Portals [View article]
    uh, how do you sign up? the link offers no access
    Apr 21, 2009. 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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